The sell now players no one wants to sell is a different way to look at your dynasty team. My approach to Dynasty is that every single player is available for the right price. I try to think of it like a stock market. I am very willing to move on from players if I perceive the return to be greater in value. This means that on occasion I am willing to sell players that some may consider untradeable.
There are a few this offseason that I would absolutely consider moving for the right price. Players that most people would feel uncomfortable selling.
I personally believe that in each of the below cases the player’s value will never be higher. Therefore, from a roster-building standpoint, if I can sell now, my roster will be in a better position moving forward.
As painful as selling the name will be. It is one of my favourite moves in Dynasty leagues to pivot from a hyped or big-name player to a younger player. Especially if that new piece has the same upside whilst adding an additional asset to make the move.
Christian McCaffrey ADP1 RB1
Cost 4 x 2021 1sts Or Jonathan Taylor, 2021 1st and 2021 2nd
I get it. Selling the number 1 asset in dynasty is absolutely crazy. But that is the exact reason why you should consider selling him. His value literally cannot be any higher.
The only player across any position to score more fantasy points in a single season since 2002 than McCaffrey did last year was LaDainian Tomlinson. In his insane 2006 season in which he scored 33 TD’s. Let me repeat that McCaffrey’s points total last year was the 2nd highest since 2002 across any position! McCaffrey looks likely to repeat as the RB1 again this year too.
However, if we are talking about this purely from a value perspective I personally don’t think his value will ever be higher. As mentioned he is coming off a truly historic season and has just signed a mega long term contract.
Other owners will likely think they are pencilling in a true elite stud for the next 3 to 4 years. But even if that is the case his value will reduce as he gets older.
I appreciate that people will want the #1 player in fantasy. But if you could leverage that into an overpay from another team then that could be a great move for the long term of your roster.
If you’re not a true contender then get a haul of picks to rebuild around. If you’re a contender could you turn McCaffrey into two absolute studs or as I suggest above someone like Taylor and additional assets?
Michael Thomas ADP4 WR1
Cost: 3 x 2021 1sts and a 2021 2nd Or Juju Smith-Schuschter, 2021 1st and 2021 2nd
Similar to the McCaffrey suggestions most people would consider this crazy. Through his 4 years in the league, Thomas has been the absolute epitome of consistency and he is only 27. You should be looking at at least 4 or 5 more years of elite production as a WR1.
However, like McCaffrey, he is coming off a truly incredible season where he broke the single-season reception record with 149 receptions. His QB is 41 years old with rumors swirling that he will be retiring at the end of the season.
Whilst Thomas has proven to be somewhat QB proof during his career, it is certainly a worry about his projection 2021 and beyond. Yes, he could continue to be QB proof but at his current price why are you taking the risk.
My main reason for selling Thomas though is the same as McCaffrey. The only place his value has to go is down. I certainly wouldn’t want to be actively shopping him but if I can get either of the above hauls then I’d be very keen. Noted I’m a huge Juju fan.
If you can move back to another top 10 receiver that is younger and still add a first-round draft pick it could be a move that adds value for the next 10 years rather than the next 3.
Travis Kelce ADP33 TE2
Cost: 2 x 2021 1sts Or Mark Andrews and a 2021 2nd
There are two players currently in the top 60 of 1QB ADP aged 30 or above. Travis Kelce and Julio Jones. The price for Julio Jones has plummeted in the last 12 months, whilst the value of Kelce has held firm.
Julio is a year older but I think the age related value drop is coming for Kelce. Whilst Kelce will likely be an elite fantasy option for the next 3 years, the Dynasty community continues to be ageist. So his value will start to slip down as owners start selling to get ahead of the age cliff.
If you can pre-empt the value drop it can be a fantastic way to ensure you don’t have assets that age out of any value. Zach Ertz has seen a significant drop in value partly due to the emergence of Goedert. But also due to his age and yet Ertz is a year younger than Kelce.
As I mentioned with Thomas and McCaffrey. If you can pivot to a younger asset whilst also adding an additional asset I think it’s a fantastic move.
If you could move Kelce for Andrews and a small asset then it’s a great move. I’d personally consider moving Kelce for Andrews straight up!
Josh Allen ADP32 QB7
Cost: 2021 1st, 2x 2021 2nd and a 2021 3rd Or Matthew Stafford and a 2021 1st
I love a QB that can rush. As many people before me have discussed, it’s the most obvious cheat code in fantasy football. But what I don’t love is an inefficient QB that covers up his poor performance with an unsustainable rushing performance.
Just looking at Allen’s Rushing performance from 2019 he finished #1 in rushing TD’s with 9, #2 in carries, #2 in Red-Zone carries and #3 in yards.
That is a fantastic list of stats but I don’t believe it is sustainable. Buffalo has added Zach Moss in the offseason, who is expected to eat into those stats.
If you then look at Allens passing stats on the surface they look solid but unspectacular. He was #21 in attempts, #23 in passing yards and #21 in passing TD’s. But if you dig into the advanced data it gets worse for Allen.
Using PlayerProfilers advanced stats in 2019 Allen was #46 in red zone completion, #33 in deep ball completion and #35 in accuracy rating.
The Bills offense did add a truly elite route runner in Stefon Diggs this offseason which will help Allen. But I’m not convinced it will solve all of Allen’s accuracy concerns.
I understand the Allen love. However, it concerns me that he is a poor QB who is hiding it all with fantastic and unsustainable rushing performances. Josh Allen finished as the QB in most leagues last year despite that incredible rushing performance. To be drafting him as the QB7 in startups is drafting him at his absolute ceiling in my opinion and that is the perfect opportunity to pivot from Allen and pick up an extra asset.
I realise some of these suggested sells won’t be popular but I’m a big proponent of the Bill Belichick philosophy that I’d rather sell a player a year early than a year late. That way I can insulate myself against any potential value drops and ensure my overall roster value remains high.
Image Credit: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports