Studs (3x plus return): 18
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 23
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 17
Tennessee seems to be trending in a positive direction heading into the postseason, and this has primarily correlated with Ryan Tannehill’s ($5,800) uptick with a lack of tendency to turn the ball over. In his last three games, seven passing touchdowns and zero turnovers from the former Miami QB is very much against the norm of his 2022 season, which 14 interceptions have dominated. This efficiency was most highlighted by his four-touchdown performance against Houston in Week 18, scoring the QB 27.3 points, Tannehill’s highest DK total on the season, and hardly an easy matchup, which has been highlighted earlier on in the season. Cincinnati represents an easier matchup heading into the postseason, giving 18.4 ppg to QBs over the last month.
There is the caveat of Derrick Henry’s ($7,500) return, whose role could be significant on his first game since Week 8. Tannehill will still be prominent in the red zone, where he has seven rushing touchdowns on the year and is due one after not seeing the endzone since Week 15.
Sticking with the theme of teams heading in positive directions and funnily enough, another No.1 seed, let’s chat about Aaron Rodgers ($7,100). Closing the last seven games with a 20:0 TD to INT ratio, last season’s MVP is in fine form in his rumoured ‘last dance’. The NFC North outfit are entering the playoffs in fine form whilst their opponents this weekend, San Fransisco, are not. Following their win over Dallas, injuries galore came out of the game. Garoppolo with shoulder and thumb sprains, Nick Bosa left the game with a concussion, and Fred Warner also was a casualty. On the plus side, Warner seems to have recovered, but Garappolo is struggling through practices, and Bosa has not appeared yet this week as of writing this. The accumulative point to take here is that San Fransisco is hurting, which A-Rod can take full advantage of in this point, especially if Nick Bosa misses.
Studs (3x plus return): 20
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 26
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 22
With such a limited amount of plays at the running back position this week, it feels like targetting the spots where guaranteed volume is optimum. Devin Singletary ($5,900) is close to the top of my list for this, being with how successful Buffalo’s rushing attack has been towards the close of the season. The addition or threat of Allen pounding the rock himself more often than he typically did previously has opened up running lanes for Singletary, as well as short dump-offs to which the back can create easy YAC opportunities.
Despite how successful the Los Angeles defense was against the dynamic Arizona rushing attack, the returning Leonard Fournette ($5,700) also has to be considered. The Tampa Bay running backs in Fournette’s absence saw 32 opportunities last week, so ‘Playoff Lenny’ is walking back into a workhorse role. This is further empathised by the fact that Brady’s pass protection may be weakened this week with the injury to Tristan Wirfs. Brady could lean on the run game to reduce the pressure Von Miller, Aaron Donald and Co will bring on the day.
The same can be said for Elijah Mitchell ($5,800), with Garoppolo banged up from last week’s win, but I am less confident in this play due to Green Bay’s stellar play on both sides of the ball.
Studs (3x plus return): 31
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 26
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 26
Davante Adams ($8,500) is by far for me the best play this weekend, so the fact Kupp ($8,600) is more expensive I find quite funny, to be honest. Not only is the receiver coming off of an rest following his side’s No.1 seed tag, he is also facing a San Fransisco side who he has a fantastic historical record against (averages over four career games):
- 9.8 receptions
- 120 receiving yards
- 1.3 TDs (!!)
Randall Cobb ($3,100) is also an intriguing option, with the veteran coming off of IR this week. With Marquez-Valdes Scantling likely to miss this one, Allen Lazard will operate on the outside, leaving the middle of the field to Cobb and Deguara. Last week, we saw that this is the area of the field to target San Fran, especially now with how banged up their linebacker core is.
Tennessee as a unit had gotten better at defending the WR position to close the season, only giving up 28.5 ppg, which is a top 12 unit, but the teams they played were not exactly spectacular, and focuses were on pounding the rock. This week, Cincinnati wideouts in Tee Higgins ($5,700) and Tyler Boyd ($4,800) have on paper easier matchups individually, going up against Jenkins and Molden. I feel there is a lot of value here this week. Burrow will have to air the ball out in this spot, and with how quiet Higgins was in the win over Las Vegas, he would be my focus.
Gabriel Davis ($4,600) remains the same price as last week but is equally an attractive option as he was the last. Davis is only sightly behind Diggs when it comes to the activity we want to see, like routes run and red zone targets, in which he snagged one in last week. A favourite of Allen’s in short-yardage situations is a favourite of ours.
Studs (3x plus return): 13
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 9
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 10
The star tight end came close to achieving stud value that week, as he did in the Wildcard game against Pittsburgh last week. After his solid Week Five performance against the same opponent, scoring 17.7 DK points, many may look Kelce’s ($6,500) way as the priciest play at the position. Kelce’s matchup Matt Milano is having a fantastic year, only allowing 55.2% of passe targeted at him to be completed, as well a 71.2 passer rating. So Kelce’s job is not an easy one. It comes down to whether you value talent over matchup here, and more often than not, Kelce overcomes the latter.
George Kittle ($5,300) is a fascinating option this week. Kittle has not hit double-digit fantasy points since Week 15, but before that had back-to-back explosion weeks against Cincy and Atlanta. To add to this, he also had a good enough stat line against his opposition this round in Green Bay, racking up 17.1 DK points. However, the killer stat from last week was 23 routes run from 63 snaps overall. That is super low for a weapon as talented as Kittle. I would avoid at all costs.
As I like A-Rod a fair, but this week, Josiah Deguara ($3,000), of course, has some appeal with MVS looking doubtful, although Cobb has returned off of IR. As mentioned, he or Cobb will be my secondary piece alongside Adams, and Deguara is the clear No.1 option at the position for Green Bay, leading snaps in six out of the seven previous weeks.
Studs (3x plus return): 10
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 15
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 15
All the defenses in this Divisional Round seem affordable, too, which will not break your DFS banks, so you may as well as pay up for the most expensive one here in Green Bay ($3,200). With Jaire Alexander, Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus all set to return, Rashan Gary will have some support in getting to the QB this week.