One of the things I really want you to do for 2021 is make projections! You might not end up using them come time for your draft/ won’t feel confident in them (I was like that in my first year of doing them). But, if you stick with it you’ll find yourself feeling better about making decisions later in drafts.
Once you go through each team and split out the carries and targets, you start to understand how likely it is that a player might be able to take a huge step forward. Or if there just aren’t enough opportunities to go round!
As part of your draft kit, you get access to a projections workbook that I put together each year. It’ll give you a massive headstart to making your own projections. In this article, I’ll explain the features of the workbook and then move onto generally talk about how to make your own projections.
Download the Book
You can download the book here (updated for rookies on 9th May)
Our Workbook
Our workbook is designed to give you the flexibility you need for your league. It’s built with some basic VBD calculations (essentially how much better a player is than a replacement player at the same position). But that is all pulled from information that you enter.
So you play in a TE premium league? Great, just enter the scoring. You play in a league where your RB’s have points per rushing attempt? You got it. Play in a league where for some reason you play 2 QBs, 3 RBs, and 18 TEs you got it. Well, ok maybe not 18 TEs- but you get the point. An example:
Once you’ve done that you’ll get calculations performed in the background for you to help you draft the best team you can. Now, let’s get into the meat of it
Creating Your 2021 Projections- Start at the Top
Starting is the tough bit. The first thing is knowing how many plays a team is likely to run. Different teams are going to run a different number of plays, and splits to the run and pass. That is pretty obvious, but how do you estimate it?
What I’d recommend is looking at the way that the current HC (Head Coach) and OC (Offensive Coordinator) has called plays in the past. If they weren’t in a place where they were likely to call plays, then use the NFL average for that season.
You can get that from a number of websites, but it’s actually built into the workbook already. Infact, in the workbook there’s a weighted average taken into account!
Your 2021 Projections Team by Team
Now you have an expectation of how a team is going to run plays for the season, it’s time to go through team by team (and player by player)
Example used for layout only- so you might struggle to make out the exact text!
General Information
Each team has a similar layout. Towards the top, you’ve got the current coaching situation. If something has changed there will be a note next to what has changed. Then there is the play expectation. If you think it is going to be higher/ lower than the estimate then you can just overtype it.
Player Information
There is also a section for player information, and it can help you understand if what you are predicting is in the realm of possibilities. If you want to change a player, then you can just change the player name in the top section and the lookup will change.
Rushing & Receiving Projections
So if you are following along to here, it’s time to have some fun. It’s now time to start to divide the rushes and pass attempts amongst the players. Combining that opportunity with what they are likely to do with the ball will give you season-long projections for each player. Repeat this for each team.
Using projections to compare
The next step is pulling all of that data that you have created and comparing it player to player. In our workbook you just need to navigate to the Ranks tab, and it’s all there for you! That tab will work out a basic VBD score which you can use to determine how much more valuable a player is across positions.
But that’s enough from me! Jump in and have some fun with it! Don’t forget to check out our other content in our draft kit! Use it all! And if you need any help then just reach out to us on our social channels. You can find us onTwitter, Facebook and Instagram.
Image Credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports
