Here we are again, Week 1 of the 2021 season and the start of DraftKings DFS action! This season feels that little more special. Not only will fans be back to a fuller capacity compared to the previous season, but also now back on multiple continents! Fans can also watch their favourite players via not just their screens this season and can watch their DFS lineups come to fruition through those same methods. The latter is where our focus lies with these weekly articles throughout the season.
When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
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Matt Ryan ($6,000)
The status quo in Atlanta from last season pretty much remains the same, which most Atlanta fans may not want to hear.
The defense was officially the worst in the league last season, contributing heavily to their 29th overall defense ranking. Because of this, the organisation made changes. Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen went out, rookies like Richie Grant and Darren Hall, and Duron Harmon came in. It does not exactly scream of solving the issue on that front.
On the offensive side of the ball, the elite talent of Julio Jones departed Atlanta for Tennessee, leaving a gaping hole in the offense. Kyle Pitts ($4,400) will likely fill this hole, a rookie who needs no introduction and will likely operate as a TE-converted-WR with Julio gone. Calvin Ridley ($7,900) will also be a much more expanded role now Julio has left, a role in which he excelled in the sample sizes where this opportunity was present, averaging 22.56 DK points per game last season. Additionally, the Philidelphia defense has been getting torched all preseason, being last for rushing yards allowed and points allowed, as well as 26th for passing yards allowed.
So we have two bad defenses squaring up against each other and an Atlanta offense who love to throw the ball a lot, with Ryan averaging 39 passing attempts a game last season.
It seems to be the perfect game and offense to target if you ask me.
Sam Darnold ($5,000)
Now hear me out; why is a QB on a new offense included in this article? Well, let me try and convince you why.
Let’s start with Darnold himself. He finds himself with Carolina following a trade with New York, the team he faces in Week One. In New York, he was coached by the infamous Adam Gase, a man whose player management has been ridiculed, to say the least, and have seen plenty of talent excel upon their departure from Gase’s grasp; Ryan Tannehill is the glaring example. Now, who cannot say Darnold will be next? Not only has Darnold landed under Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady in Carolina, a man who has shown real promise with talented QBs like Joe Burrow and is well renowned throughout the league, but he also has a weapon in Robby Anderson ($5,700), who Darnold showed a great connection with when they were both in New York. And of course, who can forget Christian McCaffrey ($9,500), the most talented running back in the league.
Now looking at Darnold’s opponents, New York. Following a 29th ranked passing defense and 26th ranked total defense in 2020, changes had to be made, and they were. San Fransisco defensive guru Robert Saleh has been brought in as head coach, and plenty of personnel have been acquired to turn this side of the ball around; LaMarcus Joyner, Jarrid Davis and Shaq Lawson stand out as examples. However, most of their starters on defense are out injured, some stating the severity being they are down to just three starters if all were healthy for their Week One game against Carolina. Saleh is an excellent defensive coach, but this is a mountain to climb in your debut.
Some may say that McCaffrey mentioned above limits Darnold’s upside in the passing game, but I feel there will be enough in this game for plenty of points to go around. I could see Darnold putting up three passing touchdowns in this one and hitting that real value you need to be paid back on backing the QB in this revenge game.
Carolina @ New York is not a sexy game whatsoever, and people will not focus on it for that exact reason. Therefore, that gives us the perfect opportunity to pounce and grab the differentiation.
Others potential Slate-Breakers to Consider
- Jalen Hurts ($6,400)
- Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500)
- Mac Jones ($4,400)
Damien Harris ($5,200)
The release of Cam Newton and the announcement of Mac Jones as the starting QB certainly took the whole NFL by surprise, but not many more benefitted more from the news than Harris.
Not only will his rush attempts likely see a tidy uptick due to Sony Michel being traded to Los Angeles, but with Cam out the door, his usage in the red zone should see the same uptick.
Week One sees New England host division rivals Miami, who has built a stout defense over the past few seasons, especially in the secondary. I am sure the likes of Xavien Howard and Co will be licking their lips at the sight of a rookie QB in Mac Jones starting in Week One, but again this should play into Harris’ hands. New England will likely have to lean on the top RB in Foxborough to drive them up the field at times, and now Harris has that red-zone upside; his price in Week One is an excellent element to exploit.
Trey Sermon ($4,500)
The conveyor belt of San Fransisco running backs continues in the 2021 season, and the rookie Sermon looks set to take off from Week One, unlike some of his predecessors.
The continuous smoke for all the beat writers in the Bay is that Sermon’s stock is rising rapidly, and you know what they about all that smoke. At the very least, it comes across that Sermon is the 1B in the San Francisco backfield, with the 1A being Raheem Mostert ($5,800). Being the 1B in this offense is not to Sermon’s detriment whatsoever, especially when under Shanahan’s stewardship in an offense and backfield as explosive as this one.
It is no secret that Detroit will not be a great football team this year, which applies to both sides of the football. Unfortunately for the NFC North outfit, they have not improved personnel-wise, at least on the face of things besides a few rookies who will take to gel from the defense that gave up the second-most DK points to running backs in the 2020 season. Therefore, this bodes well for Sermon and Co in this Week One matchup, a perfect tournament play.
Others to Consider
- Aaron Jones ($6,800)
- Najee Harris ($6,300)
Robby Anderson ($5,700)
It probably comes as no surprise that Anderson appears on this list based on my comments on Darnold.
Anderson will be Darnold’s No.2 guy in the passing offense this season, behind Christian McCaffrey, of course, and the former New Yorker will be looking to build on his 1,036 receiving yard season but mostly his minuscule three touchdowns, the lowest number since his rookie year.
Darnold can be the QB to unlock that TD potential from Anderson, at least in my opinion. It helps that he has done so in the past in New York, but under much better coaching and an improvement on weapons overall, this partnership has untapped potential.
As explained earlier in the article, that untapped potential has the perfect chance to go off in Week One against a banged-up Jets defense, and Anderson is at a price this week we won’t see him at often in the 21/22 season.
Jerry Jeudy ($4,800)
Jeudy has been one of the more fascinating prospects heading into this 2021 season, mainly because you could ask ten analysts, and each one would provide you with a different answer!
There were questions over Denver’s QB situation, with Lock and Bridgewater both battling it out for the QB1 role. Furthermore, there was Jeudy’s catch rate to debate out, which at 46% was the third-worst in the league amongst all qualifying players, made worse by his twelve drops (second-worst).
However, I feel that Jeudy will be just fine this week, starting with this Week One matchup against New York.
Firstly, the announcement of Teddy Bridgewater as the starting QB for Denver is huge from a Jeudy perspective. Despite being a ‘game manager’, Bridgewater is a much more calculated thrower of the football, matching Jeudy’s elite route running and separation. In addition, you cannot forget about the air yards that Jeudy saw last season. 1,529 in total, which was the sixth-highest among his positional peers.
The matchup against New York is not particularly the strongest positionally wise for Jeudy, but this game feels like one where both teams will want to start strong offensively wise, meaning the potential for a shootout is possible.
Tee Higgins ($4,700)
Everyone has their offseason darlings, and one of mine has been Higgins, which was before and after Ja’Marr Chase was drafted.
The at the time, rookie Higgins was an absolute beast when Burrow was in the pocket for Cincinnati, where he was the WR23 through the first ten weeks, which then dropped to the WR45 for the following weeks after Burrow’s season-ending injury. Now Burrow is back, so is this explosive offense.
I feel the addition of Chase assists my case for Higgins here in Week One and the future. Chase can draw some coverage and attention downfield from the secondary, which could free up Higgins elsewhere. Of course, with Chase’s draft capital, he has not just been drafted to be a decoy and can make big plays on his own. However, the news from camp on Chase does not sound too promising initially regarding his adaptability to the league straight away, which means Higgins could be leaned on more here in Week One by Burrow.
Minnesota, Cincinnati’s Week One opponents, have splashed the cash this offseason in the secondary with the acquisitions of Bashaud Breeland and Patrick Peterson, which could turn out to be the solution. A newly vamped defense can cause problems early on, which Higgins and Co can take full advantage of.
Others to Consider
- Corey Davis ($4,900)
- DeVonta Smith ($4,500)
- Michael Pittman ($4,100) and Parris Campbell ($3,700)
- Rondale Moore ($3,000)
Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses. Kyle Pitts may also join this club over time; however, Week One is too soon until we see him on an NFL field.
Zach Ertz ($3,800)
One of the offseason sagas has been centred around the Philadelphia tight end Ertz, where trade rumours have been rife. However, Ertz remains in Philly and seems determined to make up for lost time.
The tight end has had a terrific training camp with sophomore QB Hurts, expecting that more ’12’ personnel will be utilised, with Dallas Goedert ever-present. Tight ends tend to be safety blankets for younger QBs, and this well-known fact should apply here with Hurts still showing growing pains.
Ertz has the potential to go off against this Atlanta defense for sure. Atlanta was top five for points allowed last year to the TE position, and as we have covered, this side has not improved on the defensive side of the ball.
Class is permanent for me, and Ertz has plenty of that still in his locker.
Tyler Conklin ($2,900)
Some of you may be surprised to see Conklin’s name in this article, and if you are one of those people, why are you surprised?
The unfortunate season-ending news for Irv Smith Jr opens up the door for Conklin, who had regular stints in Minnesota’s starting offense even with Smith and Rudolph there, who both are now out of the picture.
Minnesota did make a move for Chris Herndon ($3,300), but I cannot see the man coming in from New York dethroning Conklin despite the acquisition as he is a familiar target with Cousins and has ultimately had more time in camp with the offense.
In Week One for Minnesota, Cincinnati offers an excellent opportunity for the offense to hit the ground running, especially at the tight end position against a defense that struggled to pressure opposing QBs last time out and still have a poor linebacker core, a talent like Conklin can exploit.
Others to Consider
- Anthony Firkser ($3,200)
Miami ($2,900)
We won’t often see a talented defense like Miami’s this cheap very often this season and especially in a situation like they are in Week One.
Going against a rookie QB in his first start offers a premium chance for turnovers, and this Miami defense has shown its potential to hit big in several games last season. With talents like Xavien Howard still on the books and Flores still at the helm, we can expect a unpredictable and fast-paced defense who should put Mac Jones under much pressure when in dropback situations.
The perceived lack of a pass rush currently in Miami is exactly as stated here, perceived. We saw Flores generate plenty of creative ways to pressure pocket-passer QBs and expose sub-par offensive lines because of it.
I do think there is room for Damien Harris to hit big and the Miami defense to achieve that upside.
Others potential Slate-Breakers to Consider
- New England ($3,900)
- Houston ($2,100)
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Image Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports
