When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Nine Review
What a terrible terrible Sunday Week Nine was. Most definitely one of my worst weeks on record. Just nothing fell right, and I do not know how else to explain it.
What made it worse was that I was so confident in my selections. Every other week Joe Burrow hits at least that floor of 3 TDs. Therefore my Bengals stacks do well, and the rest falls in place but not Week Nine. At the very least, C-Pat put a respectable score based on his salary, and Lamar did Lamar things but outside of that, pretty poor.
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 9
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 15
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 9
If you have been reading my articles this season, it should be no surprise that I will play a fair bit of Tom Brady ($7,600) again this week. Brady’s floor is super high, with only two weeks of the eight so far where the GOAT has fallen below 20 DK points. I like Brady’s chances to hit that 3x value this week against a Washington defense, who, throughout the season, ranks the worst against the QB position (MOST pass yards allowed in the league per game, 286.8. MOST DK points allowed per game, 26.8 and second-most points allowed in the red zone per game, 8.9).
Other than Brady, there are not many matchups I am super confident on heading into Week Nine. Justin Herbert ($7,300) was a close one for me in a solid matchup against Minnesota, but there has not been too much for Los Angeles to play their QB with confidence this week. I will probably have one or two lineups with Herbert, but it is something to approach cautiously. Dak Prescott ($6,900) is someone I am more likely to target when it comes to alternatives to Brady purely because the price difference is more significant, and despite the rise of A.J. Terrell, this Atlanta defense is still bad against all positions.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 6
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 13
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 10
Running back this week feels like going for a top option is the best way to go. Christian McCaffrey ($8,400) is always in-play with the workload that he gets. The issue will continue to be whether Carolina is going to be able to move the ball effectively. The Arizona Cardinals are a tough matchup ranking 6th best in the league, although alot of that came from having J.J. Watt on the defensive line. McCaffrey is still the only reliable piece on this offense.
If you need a cheaper option, then Dalvin Cook ($8,000) is a great option. The Vikings RB has over half of all attempts on the ground, and the Chargers defense is one of the worst in the league at defending against the position, with 11 TDs given up on the ground so far this season. His heavy involvement in the offense makes him almost matchup-proof. He might be a little bit chalky, but you don’t always need to avoid those guys.
One obvious (and therefore chalky) player for this week is D’Ernst Johnson ($4,700). Every other viable RB on the Browns team has been hit with COVID, and have their status up in the air for negative tests prior to the game. With the workload Johnson is due to get and with New England ranking sixth highest in the league with points allowed to the RB position (24.9 ppg) over the last three weeks, their defense has not exactly been water tight to the position.
A late addition to this week’s article in Mark Ingram ($4,500) is one of my favourite plays on this slate following the news of Alvin Kamara being out ruled for Sunday through injury. Therefore, we should expect Ingram to get 12-15 carries as the lead back which makes him a safe cash play and see Ingram achieve that New Orleans all-time rushing yards leader. However, it is the passing catch work that could give Ingram that GPP viability. In Ingram’s two games back as a Saint, the back has had an average of 3.5 receptions and 23 yards. With the injuries also amongst the New Orleans pass-catchers, you would expect the yards number especially to see an uptick in this matchup.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 14
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 15
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 15
The Titans offense is changing how it works with Derrick Henry now missing through injury. That has meant the team have turned towards a patchwork of RBs, but equally the team are going to need to throw the ball more now. That makes leading target A.J. Brown ($7,800) a great option. The New Orleans defense has allowed receivers to have good games against them this season, with 42.6 points on average given up to the position. Brown should have a great game against this secondary.
Long term target to matchup against, the Washington Football Team, face up against the Tampa Bay offense that is firing. Alot of people will turn towards Chris Godwin ($7,100) after two back-to-back games with over 110 yards and a score in each. But the way this offense should be able to control the game, Mike Evans ($6,900) should be able to have a good performance. Evans has been the player than has been looked at to score TDs, and there are likely plenty to be scored.
Elsewhere, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,500) is a value option at WR. With the Packers losing out on the Odell Beckham sweepstake, and Aaron Rodgers returning, there is going to be an opportunity for a secondary receiver. The Seattle Seahawks secondary has limited production generally, but has allowed some downfield completions. It’s only going to take one or two long passes to be caught and he will exceed value.
Also, I shall be returning to the same plays last week in Emmanuel Sanders ($5,600) and Jerry Jeudy ($5,300), who both saw price rises from Week Nine but are still great plays this week who both project for lower ownership than anticipated, great +/- scores (per $1000 of salary) and in advantageous matchups. In short, they owe me, and I am collecting my DK points debt this Sunday from both.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 3
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 6
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
With none of the ‘elite’ tight ends on the main slate, drafters will be back to the whirlwind of dart throws in Week Nine. Unlike most weeks, I feel they are some solid plays this week, a few of which many would have been throwing darts on already this season.
Coming off of the COVID-19 list, Noah Fant ($4,300) is someone I am very bullish on this week. Seeing 22 targets over the last three games, Teddy B clearly likes Fant, especially in the red zone, with 11 targets on the season (3rd highest among TEs), so the upside is there, which you need at such a volatile position. Then there is the duo of Dan Arnold ($3,500) and Tyler Conklin ($3,400). The utilisation of Conklin from Minnesota makes me sway his way more over Arnold, whose team total is fairly on the lower side, which is typically a key metric in determining tight end successes week-by-week.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 6
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 9
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
Another tough week for defenses this week. Arizona ($3,700) has to be the No.1 play for me in cash and small field GPP tournaments with the announcement of PJ Walker as the starter for Carolina at QB. Plus, with three double-digit scoring weeks in their last four games, they have proven their credentials to return solid value and CMC can only do so much.
Tennessee ($2,600) also have to be a consideration with their three double-digit scores in a row and are now rewarded with a mess of a New Orleans QB room at home.
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Image Credit: Michael Madrid – USA TODAY Sports
