When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Ten Review
I was pretty satisfied with how Week Ten went, in all honesty!
For as many let downs we had in Brady, A.J. Brown, Arizona DST. We made up for hits in Dak Prescott, all the running backs featured, Fant and Conklin, among others.
Let’s hope to build some momentum now that we are heading into the business end of the regular season!
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 10
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 14
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 10
Much like last week, Dak Prescott ($7,200) is someone who feels like a natural draw this week, but not as a pivot but as a core play. We all know how bad this Kansas City defense is in general, especially against opposing QBs, being 31st (second-highest) overall for points per game on the season. Furthermore, we saw Dak and Dallas bounce back in empathic fashion in Week 10, and this momentum should continue with weapons like Cooper and Gallup returning to full health and the offense overall just feeling itself again, and Kansas City, you would like to think, can make it a competitive game.
Targetting Cincinnati vs Las Vegas could be a nice pivot from some chalkier games, especially with Joe Burrow ($6,600) and Derek Carr ($5,900), both projecting under 10% ownership. Both of these defenses from Weeks 7 to 10 are ranking in the bottom three in points allowed per game to the QB position (CIN: 24.4, 31st, LV: 24.2, 30th) through the last three games they have played, meaning points are to be had!
*Worth noting that keeping an eye on Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray’s absences throughout this week as both are in advantageous matchups if they play
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 9
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 16
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 10
This week, the matchup-proof DeAndre Swift ($7,000) should be a key consideration in your lineup building. Jamaal Williams is back in practice this week, but that did not matter before, so why should it now! Swift showed his dominance in last week’s showing against Pittsburgh, hitting 130 rushing yards and three receptions, which is impressive. Despite Cleveland’s overall season ranking not showing too much, their Week Seven to Ten ranking against RBs is 28th in total points allowed (31.3 ppg) and 31st in the red zone (14 ppg), showcasing their recent struggles. Perfect opportunity for an in-form Swift.
With Aaron Jones set to be a major doubt for Green Bay’s Week Eleven clash against Minnesota, A.J. Dillon ($6,200) looks set to be a great play on DraftKings. The most appealing factor to playing Dillon this week is his likelihood of a heavy workload, one in which we could easily see him replicate his Week Ten efforts (21 rush attempts and two receptions). The upside is there also for Dillon, with the back not only having a rife and recent history of getting in the end zone. And with Minnesota’s season-long ranking of 29th to RBs in the red zone (10.9 ppg), I am willing to bet that Dillon continues this trend in Week Eleven.
There were a few close calls in this article that I probably will still play in my lineups in James Conner ($6,100) and David Montgomery ($5,500) but ultimately are not feature parts of this week’s article.
The potential return of Nuk Hopkins and Kyler Murray put me off Conner as a feature option, mostly because I feel there is a high chance that those two see a lot of valuable touches, which would eat into Conner’s work. There is no doubting the matchup quality in Seattle, but I am cautious about it.
Montgomery is purely a price play, and I do feel he is too cheap. My reservations come with his upside, which is limited due to Baltimore’s effectiveness in the red zone against RBs. As a cash play, D Mont could be a solid option that many will overlook, but as a GPP play, I am not so sure.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 14
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 16
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 18
This Green Bay vs Minnesota is great for stacking, in my opinion, and the Minnesota side of the ball is not getting enough early attention from DFS players. We all know the talents of Davante Adams ($8,400), so there is no need to go any further on him. For me, Adam Thielen ($6,600) is such a sneaky play this week that I feel will go off. Why? Well, first off, he has a history of smashing it against Green Bay. Countless games of 100+ yards plus touchdowns to his name against his NFC North rivals backs that up. Secondly, Minnesota cannot just Dalvin Cook twenty plus times in this matchup, cause Green Bay have learnt how to defend the running back, ranking t-10 at defending the position from points per game perspective. Forcing Cousins to throw the ball only assists our narrative here that Thielen sees a lot of the football. Yeah, it could go to Jefferson, but Eric Stokes has looked solid in the absence of Alexander, and I feel we have seen the true colours on Kevin King, Thielen’s assignment in Week 11 despite his decent performances since returning from injury.
I guess you could say I am not buying this Packers defense as of yet. They have had some very advantageous scenarios placed on their fingertips, and a team is set to embarrass them. Could it be the Vikings in a quirky divisional game? I reckon so.
Tennesee v Houston again is another great spot for stacking, in my opinion. Too bad defenses against the receiver go head-to-head – what more could you want? After his lacklustre performance last week, A.J. Brown ($7,700) owes me after tipping him up, and Brown put up a whole 3.3 DK points. Fortunately for the Tennessee receiver, this matchup against Houston should be positive, allowing Brown to bounce back. On the other side of the ball, you can, of course, look towards Brandin Cooks ($6,000), who is very clearly the WR1 in Houston. However, Nico Collins ($3,300) is catching my eye this week, a player who is consistently seeing a 67-68% snap share as the WR2 and faces a Tennessee who we know is terrible against his position throughout the 2021/22 season. I expect a bump in Collins workload following Houston’s bye week just passing, and for his price, you do not need a lot to achieve that upside in your lineups.
For standalone plays, once again, Emmanuel Sanders ($5,300) features. Everyone on Buffalo’s offense seems to have big games recently bar Sanders, and with Indianapolis weaknesses against outside receivers, I hope it is third time lucky for Sanders in these articles. Flacco starting at QB for New York likely means leading route runner from Week Ten, Jamison Crowder ($4,700), is set for a standout game. Flacco likes his checkdown options, and against this Miami pass rush, slot kings like Crowder will see plenty of the target share in Week 11.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 5
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 6
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses.
Dawson Knox ($4,000) is an intriguing option that many people could overlook outside of the expensive elite options. The Buffalo tight end’s return from injury in Week Ten was far from spectacular, catching his only target for 17 yards in the win against New York. Another week off the injury should allow for Knox to see more opportunity and provides a great stacking option with Josh Allen.
Juwan Johnson ($2,800) is also a pure punt at the position that stands out to me. Johnson has been a touchdown-dependent play all season and has achieved this role in part, collecting three touchdowns from nine receptions on the year. However, the Week Ten loss to Tennessee saw the New Orleans tight end utilised outside the red zone, catching two receptions for 36 yards. This is a promising sign for the tight end, who previously saw all the targets swallowed up by Trautman.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 6
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 10
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
With the announcement of Joe Flacco starting at quarterback for New York, Miami ($3,600) has now become the go-to pay-up DST. The decision is a bit baffling, to be honest, but I am sure a defense that ranks first in QB hits and fourth in sack rate % will be licking their lips at this prospect.
If you are looking to pay all the way down, Minnesota ($2,300) are probably the team to target. A defense who have hit solid points totals despite injuries to some key players over the last few weeks and now faces a Green Bay team who could struggle to get going against an in-form unit.
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Image Credit: Raj Mehta – USA TODAY Sports
