Studs (3x plus return): 16
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 18
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 14
With quite a few offenses been impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak, one that seems to be only strengthening is Los Angeles, with Matthew Stafford ($6,700) at the helm. In-season acquisitions seem only to have diversified the offensive revenue if the currency was yards and touchdowns, and the chemistry with record-breaker Kupp keeps ticking along. With Los Angeles in the thick of the NFC seeding race for the playoffs, every win matters, including their Week 16 matchup against Minnesota.
The NFC North outfit has been a pretty abysmal team at defending the QB in recent weeks, allowing 20.2 points per game which ranks 27th in the league. Furthermore, nearly all of this points production has come through the air, matching Stafford’s ability as a passer.
Another QB who excels through the passing game and is in line for a great week is Joe Burrow ($5,900). Aaron Rodgers was a feature in this article last week for facing a weak Baltimore secondary who does not seem to be getting any healthier, and it is deja vu here for Burrow. The Cincinnati QB and his No.1 receiver Chase have shown glimpses of their early-season production, Week 14 against San Fransisco, for example, but it is something we have not seen often enough. The chances are is that Week 16 will allow us to see this again with Baltimore injuries, and with Higgins, Boyd and Uzomah as the supporting cast, Burrow has a great chance of achieving upside this week.
Studs (3x plus return): 16
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 22
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 16
With some of the top running backs on the slate being hit with COVID-19, Corradelle Patterson ($6,700) will likely become someone who pops up on people’s radars this week. Almost 1,100 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns is just one factor to this in Week 16. Another is likely to be the matchup for Patterson in Detroit this week, a team who is still bad as a team and defensive unit despite picking up results as of late. 25.6 points per game (24th ranking) and 10.5 points per game in the red zone (30th ranking) against RBs through the last four weeks highlights this.
With all the COVID news surfacing from Kansas City, Clyde-Edwards Helaire ($5,800) has become a massive part of this slate. With Hill and Kelce both included in this COVID drama, the run game for KC and CEH will be pivotal in securing that AFC North title in Week 16. It is funny how some situations play out regarding matchups, and with Pittsburgh, KC’s opponents being the worst team against the run the last four weeks (31.4 points per game allowed), you could not ask for a better matchup for CEH.
In short, do not ignore the obvious plays this week.
However, if you do want to get a bit different, David Montgomery ($5,700) may go a bit overlooked with all the cheap plays like Justin Jackson ($4,200) and Ronald Jones ($5,100). Seattle, D Mont’s opponents, rank 28th against the run the last four weeks and if D Mont can achieve that TD upside that he has not so far this season, achieving value for your money will be easy pickings.
Studs (3x plus return): 23
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 20
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 21
Wide receiver for once is pretty tough pickings outside of the top end guys this week.
With the likelihood that Mike Evans is out as of writing this, Antonio Brown ($4,900) looks one of the few certainties to smash this week at this position. Brown is returning from his suspension to essentially a WR1 role in which the passes are coming from the greatest QB of all time, which is criminal value at his price. The only minor downside is that he is coming up against a Carolina secondary full of talent. However, this unit is suffering from the lack of success from the offense and with Cam Newton is still the starter, so this trend should continue.
Then there are the Los Angeles receivers. If I like Stafford, I will like these guys as this is where the ball goes most of the time. There is Kupp, but our focus is on the other guys. In my opinion, the stronger tournament or GPP play is Van Jefferson ($5,500). Jefferson sees the higher quality targets from a DFS upside perspective and has had the touchdown production to back those targets up over the last month. Odell Beckham ($5,300) has seen similar touchdown production, but there feels less upside there, and the signs show a stronger cash play.
Finally, as a mini-stack in the Detroit Atlanta game, why not play Russell Gage ($5,900) with Josh Reynolds ($4,600)? Both teams struggle a lot at defending in general, especially the WR positions, and are primary passing targets in their offenses. If you do not think Reynolds is situation-proof with the Goff news, you could pivot the double stack to Swift or Jamaal Williams.
Studs (3x plus return): 11
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 6
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 8
Now I understand Gronk ($6,200) is expensive, but the opportunity in this situation is astronomical. For context, the Tampa tight end has seen 8+ targets in each of the last five weeks with all of the weapons healthy in the Bay, now none of them are besides a returning Antonio Brown, Gronk could be in line to smash his 11 target total from the shutout against New Orleans! In times of need, Brady will go to guys who he knows he can rely on, and Gronk very much falls into this category.
Besides that and Mark Andrews, tight end is a complete punt zone as usual. Play anyone below the elite guys at your own risk.
Studs (3x plus return): 9
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 12
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 12
Paying down at defense could be optimal this week with all the chaos commencing. Early on, Chicago ($2,500) looks like my favourite pay down option going up against a hurting Seattle offense who cannot seem to get going, and the season is over. With seven sacks in the last two weeks, this NFC North defense is still getting pressure to the QB and are set to get all their defensive coordinators to return from COVID protocols, which can only be a boost.
Also, a Los Angeles defense at only ($3,100) is way too cheap, a unit that has scored 10, 8 and 9 points through the last three games in spots where the offense has stuttered at times, putting pressure on the defensive unit. They are hitting form at the right time and face a Minnesota who is prone to make mistakes if given the opportunity.
n the three weeks prior to Week 14.