Slate-breaker history

Studs (3x plus return): 2

Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 2

Scrubs (2x or lower return): 1

Justin Herbert ($6,700)

In Lombardi’s first game as offensive coordinator, Herbert looked very comfortable against a stout defense in Washington, a team who I was high on this campaign, which has cooled with the unfortunate injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The sophomore QB efficiently distributed the ball while keeping the defense guessing, particularly on third downs, which ultimately led to the W heading back to LA. 

Herbert on third downs in Week One against Washington:

• 14/17 completions
• 127.0 passer rating
• 13 first downs

Next up for Herbert is the Hard Knock-featured Dallas, a team who looked like they have not changed one bit from that last season, and that includes their lacklustre defense. Los Angeles will have a lot of fun with this defense, and so will their pass-catchers, but we will get on to them later.

Matt Stafford ($6,400)

Another week in my DFS article where there is a QB apart of a new offense, but boy, did Stafford look good against Chicago.

27.34 points in primetime in Week One came at ease for the former Detroit man and only off of 26 passing attempts, which is very impressive, showing Stafford’s natural grasp of a McVay offense at such an early stage. 

And the best part is that this seems far from Stafford’s ceiling too, which can be unleashed once more formidable opponents present themselves, and that could very well be the case with Indianapolis. Wentz and Co looked serviceable against Seattle but ultimately fell to a more formidable offense, but I like their chances more against this Los Angeles defense. 

This, in turn, should allow Stafford to focus more on the aerial offense and more points for our lineups. With all the great stacking options, too, in Woods, Kupp, Higbee and even Jefferson as a dart throw, this Los Angeles offense is a great one to target in Week Two.

Other potential Slate-Breakers to Consider

• Ryan Tannehill ($6,300)
• Joe Burrow ($5,800)

Slate-breaker history

Studs (3x plus return): 0

Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 1

Scrubs (2x or lower return): 2

Austin Ekeler ($7,300)

Ekeler in Week One was an interesting case study to follow last week as it was not what we are used to seeing from the Los Angeles running back. 

Heading into Week One with a questionable tag over his head, Ekeler received zero targets from his quarterback Justin Herbert but did get some carries inside the five-yard line, which was a complete role reversal. These signs are encouraging, though, heading into Week Two and a matchup against Dallas. 

With Ekeler likely to have a much more consistent week of practice, his role should expand nicely, which will ultimately mean his volume of targets should return at least to a respectable level and limit the snaps Rountree gets behind him. Then you add the red zone work he saw, and you suddenly get a ‘five-box’ running back against one of the poorest defenses from Week One. 

I am expecting Ekeler to go under-owned in tournaments this week due to recency bias on his Week One performance and people not understanding the situation. Don’t make the same mistake as the majority will.

Chase Edmonds ($4,900)

This Edmonds price is terrific, probably one of my favourites on the slate. 

Arizona’s game script was the best in the league coming out of Week One in the win over the underwhelming Tennessee. Plus, when he had his opportunities in his timeshare with Conner, Edmonds made the most of it. 116 total yards, with 53 of those coming through the air, was a great element of many people’s secondary stacks in GPPs last week, and I think the same will happen in Week Two against Minnesota. 

Arizona is very likely to control the pace in this one, which has at the second-highest rate in the league last week, meaning Edmonds and Conner will get plenty of touches. With Edmonds 5.2 yards created per touch, which was ranked the best in the league Week One and Minnesota defended Joe Mixon, this play will be good in Week Two.

Javonte Williams ($4,400)

Javonte had a difficult Week One against New York. In terms of carries, he edged out fellow back Gordon 14 to 11 but did not make the most of the opportunity, only generating 45 yards, whereas Gordon had a few big plays, which helped Denver to the Week One W. 

However, Williams showed his elusiveness in Week One despite some of the top-line stats don’t show it. T-3 rankings for juke rate and 7th for evaded tackles amongst his position showed Javonte was not just running into brick walls, and I’m pretty confident that Jacksonville will not be putting up many of those walls based on their outing in Week One against Houston.

Others to Consider

• Jonathan Taylor ($7,200)
• Najee Harris ($6,300)

Slate-breaker history

Studs (3x plus return): 3

Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 2

Scrubs (2x or lower return): 3

DK Metcalf ($7,600)

This week feels like a great week to pay up for your studs at WR, and DK is right at the top of my list. 

Last week saw the blow-up week of Tyler Lockett, which is predictable on reflection based on how Indianapolis set up defensively in the secondary, and we can use this knowledge and transfer it over to this Week Two matchup against Tennessee. 

The AFC South outfit set out with a heavy dosage of man coverage which in turn lead to many significant completions in the passing game (4 20+ completions in 5 attempts), which indicates a real lack of development on that front from the 2020 season, where they t-10 for plays allowed in of that distance. 

This game will be so high up there in terms of pace that both offenses will see many plays, and DK, for me, presents the best opportunity to take advantage of that.

CeeDee Lamb ($6,400)

If I’m playing some Los Angeles assets in some of my lineups, I will need a bring back, and Lamb looks to be that guy.

Lamb saw a ridiculous fifteen targets in the Week One shootout against Tampa Bay, which equated to a 26.3% target share. The best part of Lamb’s 104-yard and a touchdown performance in Week One is that he only caught seven of those targets. Imagine if Lamb caught two or three of his drops, we’d be looking at near 150 yards for a supposed WR2 on his offense!

I think there is a clear ceiling to Lamb, which has not been realised yet, and this matchup could force that ceiling to be reached, especially now Gallup is now out injured as there will be more dependency on Lamb and Cooper to get the offense going and you could throw Zeke in that category too. 

Robert Woods ($5,700)

As you know, I like the look of Stafford this week and this game in general, with people seeming to be initially fading this match because of the concern over Wentz. 

I have concluded that I like Woods more than Kupp this week. Now to some, this may seem a bit baffling considering Kupp dominated every metric against Woods in the Week One win over Chicago. But to me, this states that Woods is due some of the football this week. Kupp cannot maintain a 38.5% target share of the offense, and it is unrealistic to expect that. With Woods route participation at 69.2%, it is not like he is not on the field, and you have to expect Stafford to throw the ball more than 26 times in Week Two. 

Plus, and probably the most important stat of them all, Woods will give you differentiation from the field and with these slate-breakers, that’s what we are after.

Others to Consider

• Julio Jones ($6,300)
• Ja’Marr Chase ($5,000)
• Cole Beasley ($4,600)
• Emmanuel Sanders ($4,000)

Slate-breaker history

Studs (3x plus return): 0

Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 1

Scrubs (2x or lower return): 2

Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses. Kyle Pitts may also join this club over time; however, it is too soon until we see him on an NFL field for an extended period. 

Tyler Higbee ($4,100)

Now this play COULD become very chalky, and quite frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if that does happen. Higbee played every offensive snap and ran routes on 81% of those snaps, which is super high. And then when you consider that Stafford only had 26 passing attempts and Higbee saw 6 of those, that’s a 23% target share. 

It is important not to get carried away by that target share figure, but if the Los Angeles tight end can consistently maintain a 15-18% target share, he will not be at that price for very long, especially when it is on an explosive as an offense as this one is. 

As outlined earlier, I am expecting Indianapolis to put up for more of a fight than Chicago did in Week One against LA, meaning more scoring opportunities for Higbee, and with Chicago being fifth for points allowed to tight ends through the first week, I like Higbee’s chances to have a boom week. 

Dalton Schultz ($3,300)

Schultz was t-10 for targets at the TE position with six on opening night against Tampa Bay and a 30% target rate on his routes run, which was also t-10. This may not seem too significant at the surface level, but with the return of Jarwin in this offense, Schultz outshone his fellow teammate, and to a considerable level too with Jarwin’s four targets and 18.2% target rate. This Dallas LA game is one where I want as many plays as possible, and Schultz feels like a nice pivot that most of the field will ignore. 

Others to Consider

• Adam Trautman ($3,000)

Slate-breaker history

Studs (3x plus return): 1

Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 1

Scrubs (2x or lower return): 1

Denver ($3,800)

Is a play like Denver just too easy on this slate? They are taking on Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville, who feel in crisis mode after only one week, and No.1 pick Lawrence was super inefficient throwing the football; in fact, Lawrence and other rookie QB Wilson were the two most inefficient QBs on the whole week. 

This defense is full of players who will make Lawrence’s welcome to Jacksonville an unpleasant one. Therefore it is worth paying up for in Week Two to try and gain that upside at a unique position. 

Las Vegas ($2,800)

After staying up till 5 am watching MNF, I love this Las Vegas defence price against a stagnant Big Ben in the pocket. 

The Pittsburgh offense was very mediocre in the win over Buffalo, who were as bad if not worse, and this Las Vegas defense will cause problems, but they have to be wary of the variety of talent on that Pittsburgh offense. I am leaning towards Las Vegas causing Pittsburgh problems, especially off the high of an opening week win in front of their fans. 

Others to Consider

• New England ($3,700)