We are right around the corner from Week 3 of the 2021 season, and that means DFS action with DraftKings. When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Two Review
Week Two was bizarre, as well as being incredibly frustrating. Don’t get me wrong, it was not as bad as the previous week, but it was not the redemption I was after from the opening games. DAL v LAC completely underwhelmed everybody, and it was the one where I felt most drafters had to have pieces. When in fact, the ATL v TB game was the game to zone in on, where I had pieces, but not enough on the ATL side of the ball. Kupp going off hurt a bit, as quite frankly, I was under-owned on him, but I still maintain that Woods will have his boom week sooner rather than later.
I think many of us got burnt in Week Two, but there are no excuses.
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 2
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 5
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 2
Kyler Murray ($8,300)
It seems pretty simple to include the highest-priced QB and DK QB1 in this type of article, and quite frankly, it is why he is in this article. Two 4x return performances will do that for you in this case, and this is not 100% down to Murray’s rushing upside.
The Arizona QB has thrown for 689 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions whilst boasting an 80.6% completion rate on his passes from the Week Two win over Minnesota. Mightily impressive for a third-year QB who, in 2020, as a sophomore, averaged out at 73.5% for a completion percentage.
There is a cost for this uber efficiency, however. That cost, you may ask? Their pace. Per data from @Cooper_PFF_Data, we can see this quite evidently, with Arizona being in the ‘Slow, efficient’ quadrant. Murray is taking his time in the pocket and letting his playmakers do the talking, Rondale Moore being the exemplar of that through two weeks.
Arizona’s Week Three opponents, Jacksonville, post up in the ‘Fast, inefficient’ zone via the same data source, providing an excellent game script from a Kyler point of view. Their inefficiency should allow Kyler to profit from an extended amount of plays, and his efficiency with the ball will allow for a maximum allowance of DK points and his weapons.
I don’t think Kyler’s ownership will be as high as some expect, which is why I like Murray this week.
Daniel Jones ($5,800)
There is no way that Danny Dimes should be this cheap. A guy who has achieved 22 and 29 DK point finishes through the first two weeks and has shown top tier rushing upside, so high that Lamar and Jalen Hurts would be impressed by. One hundred twenty-two rushing yards and two touchdowns have only added to the solid passing yardage for two weeks, with connections to Sterling Shepard, particularly, looking strong.
The downside? Jones is only averaging a passing touchdown a game in 2021. Ultimately, this average needs to increase moving forward if New York wants to get off their doughnut record, but will Jones need to against Atlanta in Week Three? Atlanta has shown their terrible defense is back again in 2021, leading to incredibly fast-paced games, with Atlanta topping the league in terms of pace. New York has not been slow-paced either on offense, albeit inefficient overall.
I feel there is enough here to play Jones comfortably in GPPs as a pivot.
Other potential Slate-Breakers to Consider
- Lamar Jackson ($7,800)
- Matt Ryan ($5,400)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 0
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 3
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 3
Ty’Son Williams ($5,800)
Williams could be in for a boom week, and I am not exaggerating when I say that. A genuinely efficient back who has been making the most of his touches in this ‘committee’ in Baltimore, ranking 3rd amongst RBs for yards per touch 6.9, now takes on Detroit in Week Three.
As highlighted in my props betting this week, Detroit has been giving up yards and TDs freely to RBs this season, letting up 100+ yards and TDs to Eli Mithell and Aaron Jones. You have to expect Ty’Son to follow suit in Week Three, especially in the best-paced team in the league in a game script in which you expect to be favourable from a Baltimore point of view.
Kenyan Drake ($5,500)
With Josh Jacobs ($6,200) not looking likely to make Sunday after only returning to practice on Thursday, Drake becomes a solid value play where he should see a significant role in the game script.
Drake’s work in the passing game gives the Las Vegas back an excellent floor to work with, catching five targets a week consistently for solid yardage, too (107 on the season). The worry is Drake’s 1.5 YPC in 2021, which is not good at all. However, I think this is Drake’s chance to better this number and likely at an enhanced opportunity with Brissett starting at QB for Miami, giving him extra opportunities.
Others to Consider
- Saquon Barkley ($6,500)
- Javonte Williams ($4,900)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 4
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 5
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
Stefon Diggs ($7,600)
The slate-breaking weeks are on the way for Diggs. The key metrics and the eye test tell you so. The top five amongst his position in routes run (4th), targets (2nd), air yards (3rd) and red-zone targets (5th) tell you all you need to know.
Diggs is elite and likely to be under-owned in this ‘bad’ matchup despite Washington’s defense giving up 395 and 424 total yards through the first two weeks alongside an average of 24.5 points allowed.
I expect a boom week from Diggs sooner rather than later, and Week Three could be that time.
Sterling Shepard ($5,900)
Shepard has been one of the fantasy darlings of this 2021 season, seeing 16 catches of 19 targets, 4 of which have come in the red zone. All of this has equated to 207 receiving yards and a WR9 ranking through the first two weeks.
The matchup here is what is most appealing with Atlanta in Week Three. The most attractive element is the probable corners attempting to cover Shepard this week in Terrell and Oliver. Both allow a passer rating way north of 100 (110 and 121, respectively) and completion rates of 67% and 70% if we merge stats from 2020 to 2021.
You know I like Danny Dimes this week, so his leading man in Shepard is, of course, an attraction, especially at this price.
I did have a writeup on Antonio Brown ($5,200), but a COVID-interrupted week has put that to the scrap as even if the former Pittsburgh man makes the sidelines on Sunday, his preparation has been severely hampered and makes him a no-go, unfortunately.
Others to Consider
- Chris Godwin ($6,100)
- Marvin Jones ($4,900)
- Darnell Mooney ($4,300)
- K.J. Osborn ($3,500)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 0
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 2
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 4
Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses. Kyle Pitts may also join this club over time; however, it is too soon until we see him on an NFL field for an extended period.
On this slate, the above names are where I will be looking for my plays, I reckon. There is a chance that I give Higbee a second chance in GPP lineups purely because of the game and team totals. Plus, the routes were there for all the key Rams passing options, and perhaps in this type of game script, Kupp dominates less of the market share.
It will be a big Mark Andrews week, and I cannot explain why. It’s just my gut.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 1
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 2
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 2
Las Vegas ($3,400)
Heading back to Las Vegas for a second week in a row seems like a smart play despite the hefty price hike, probably down to the QB situation in Miami, their Week Three opponents.
The first two weeks, seven and five points are profitable returns in games where the Nevada-based outfit has given up 300+ total yards and 17+ points in both games. I struggle to see Miami continuing this trend with Tua edging on likely not to play in Week Three with his bruised ribs making him day-to-day and Miami’s offensive line having early-season struggles too.
There is a scenario where Las Vegas keep Miami under ten points on the day and put up a season-high number of sacks (4+), therefore giving you a great return on your increased spend at a traditional pay-down position.
Cleveland ($3,200)
Following a similar path to Las Vegas, it does seem optimal to target this shaky Chicago QB room through Cleveland’s defense.
Nagy said that Andy Dalton is the starting QB “when healthy” which he is not right now after picking up a knee injury in the Week Two win over Cincinnati. Rookie Justin Fields came in for Dalton and showed some promise in his limited snaps, but also highlighted some rookie teething issues that the majority expected.
In truth, I expect this Cleveland defense to dominate regardless of who is in the pocket on Sunday, but if it is indeed Fields in his first start, I will double down on this sentiment.
*Fields is now the starter since initially writing. I still like the Cleveland defense to cause turnovers.
Others to Consider
- Arizona ($3,000)
- Cincinnati ($2,100)
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Image Credit: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports
