When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Three Review
Well, after a difficult first two weeks, Week Three, we had a bit of a bounceback!
A 2.5x return on stakes is something that I will take every day of the week and continues my steady climb into this season now we have started to figure out some teams.
I played a team heavily as my main stack was Buffalo against what I thought was an overrated Washington defense, which worked out.
As an example above, TB-LAR has a popular second stack for me, and in some cases, my primary stack without a bring back as I knew the volume of plays would subside any bring back being necessary.
In both of these cases, I was one player going off a big win, so I knew my process was not the issue, and I ultimately switched to different games from where I was initially thinking. That’s the thing with DFS. The players I write in these articles are not my gospel, and they are just my early thoughts looking at the slate throughout the week. I still play these players. For example, I had Kyler Murray stacks do terribly in some contests, but please don’t think I only play these guys cause that is far from the truth.
Anyway, on to the selections!
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 2
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 7
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 4
Russell Wilson ($7,100)
Wilson feels like a solid play every week at the moment, doesn’t he? Despite the points not quite being there in Week Three, this offense is humming overall, with big performances from all their star names this season.
There are zero reasons why Russ cannot keep cooking against divisional rivals San Fransisco either this week. San Fran is hurt in the secondary in particular, with several key players out, and they rank 7th highest when it comes to points allowed to QBs this season.
There is a good chance that Wilson comes in under-owned this week with people’s attention being diverted elsewhere. Capitalise on that and play the Seattle man.
Jalen Hurts ($6,900)
The opposing sides of Kansas City games seem to be an easy play at the moment, and certainly, the best play from a Philidelphia point of view is Hurts.
What I saw against Dallas was enough for me to throw in here, perhaps not on the outcome, but the game script should be reasonably similar, leading to points-scoring opportunities. Although I would hope Hurts and Co can keep it closer than in Monday Night Football.
There are calls for Miles Sanders to step up and ‘get his’, but I do not think this takes away from Hurts upside this week. If anything, it probably helps Hurts. Another thriving weapon in an exciting offense cannot be bad for the sophomore QB.
Plus, Hurts has given us his word that Philidelphia will be better this week, and we have to take him on that, right?
Taylor Heinicke ($5,900)
Targetting Atlanta like last season feels like it will be a season-long activity, and that does not stop with Heinicke here.
It is no doubt that Heinicke had a tough Week Three. Buffalo came out firing, and the recently labelled game-manager Heinicke could not keep up. I would be surprised if Atlanta came out with that same fire, especially on the defensive side of the ball, with Atlanta’s defense ranking in the bottom three for points allowed to QBs this season.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 0
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 6
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 4
Jonathan Taylor ($6,300) / Nyheim Hines ($4,900)
I am the first one to know that Miami’s rush defense is hot garbage, and it has not just been this season either. The linebacker coverage is awful, which happens when all the funds are spent on the secondary.
Miami allowing two 100-yard rushers on the season through just three games is just the start of it; they are also giving it up through the air with the likes of James White (6/49) and the Las Vegas duo of Barber (3/31) and Drake (3/33) also were prosperous.
I am higher on Taylor than Hines this week, purely because Taylor is more likely to exploit Miami’s weakness in giving up big plays on the ground like Harris and grinding out the yards like Barber showed in Week Three.
Many people are down on Jonathan Taylor because of his lack of production in the red zone, which in general is a fair assessment, but Miami provides the most favourable game script he has had all season, and he and Hines should be able to both benefit from this.
There is a role for both these backs in Week Four, and both are seeing a great number of snaps, which will generate fantasy points. Taylor, for me, feels the more shrewd play, but Hines also is a solid pivot.
J.D. McKissic ($5,000)
Speaking of pivots, this feels like a great one in Week Four.
The Gibson shin injury kind of helps this selection, but McKissic was not picked because of that. Like the situation in Indianapolis with Hines and Taylor, McKissic and Gibson reflect very similarly. McKissic is seeing a loaded amount of snaps which is eating into Gibson’s work, and we saw a clear example of that in a game-chasing game script in Week Two.
Do I think we could see this script in Week Four? Yes, most definitely! Washington’s defense has been terrible, giving up 400+ total yards as a defense in 2/3 weeks this season as well as an average of 31 points per game, which is impacted by Buffalo’s dominance of them in Week Three.
These game scripts suit the pass-catching McKissic. Play him over Gibson this week.
Others to Consider
- Miles Sanders ($6,400)
- DeAndre Swift ($6,200)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 5
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 6
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 8
Deebo Samuel ($6,500)
I was down a lot of Deebo last week, so much so that I betted money against him. But this week, it has come full circle, and he is probably my favourite play on the slate out of the wide receivers.
The play makes a lot of sense in general. Seattle has allowed a 100+ yard receiver in the last two weeks; Samuel does not have Jaire Alexander shadowing him this week, one of the renowned corners in the league. Plus, the news has been released that Kittle is banged up, but that did not sway me in including Deebo in this article as I expect Deebo to be in the winning lineups that takedown in the big tournaments this week.
Christian Kirk ($5,300) / Rondale Moore ($4,600)
I feel many people will avoid the Arizona passing offense outside of DeAndre Hopkins this week, but I say, play them! Well, Kirk and Moore, anyway.
Both of these receivers operate predominately in the slot, Kirk seeing 60.7% of his snaps from this area of the field, with Moore seeing 72.4% in the same position. The primary reason I highlight this is that we avoid one of the best corners in the game, Jalen Ramsey, whose sole focus will be renewing his ongoing battle with Hopkins in this NFC West duel.
They instead face Darious Williams, a man who has given up the following stats when lined up in the slot:
- Week 1: Allen Robinson – 9 targets, 6 receptions, 39 yards
- Week 2: Michael Pittman – 11/8/63
- Week 3: Mike Evans – 8/6/66
Bear in mind; those stats were when Darious was lined up in the slot, so these are not 100% of his snaps, and right now, those three plays are not making the plays that Kirk and Moore are.
I expect one of those above to go for 100+ yards on Sunday and hopefully a lot more.
Others to Consider
- Tim Patrick ($4,900)
- Jaylen Waddle ($4,900)
- Quez Watkins ($3,500)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 1
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 3
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 4
Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses.
Logan Thomas ($4,900)
The Washington tight end feels like he is worth paying up for this week after we have seen the past couple of weeks with Heinicke under centre.
His snap share (114.4%) is the highest in the league amongst his position as far his amount of snaps in the slot (63%) is one of the critical indicators why I like Thomas this week. Already this season, we have seen Atlanta give up big games to Gronkowski and Goedert, both of who either run a similar amount of routes to Thomas in Gronk’s case or operate from the slot a lot in Goedert’s. So, with Thomas being a mesh of both, you would like to think he can have as good of a game, if not better.
Thomas’s only red flag in this lack of red-zone targets (2) this season but he has caught them both, so his efficiency is solid, meaning Heinicke is likely to look his way more in this favourable matchup.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 3
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 3
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 3
New Orleans ($3,800)
If you are paying up for a defence this week, New Orleans are the play I like the most.
Six sacks, interceptions, and a defensive touchdown have seen the NFC South defense average 13.7 points per game through three weeks. In Week Four, New Orleans faces the 2020 turnover machine Daniel Jones, who showed some of his 2020 ways last week with two fumbles against Atlanta.
With New York’s offensive weapons dropping like flies, expect New Orleans to put up a dominant performance back in Louisana in front of their home crowd in what could be an emotional day.
Detroit ($2,200)
Targetting the sorry Chicago offense once again, I do like Detroit at this cut price. You have to expect rookie Fields to do better than his first start on the road in Week Three, but this defense can make plays, and you do not need a lot to achieve that stud value.
Others to consider
- Indianapolis ($2,700)
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Image Credit: Joe Camporeale – USA TODAY Sports
