When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Four Review
Well, to put it bluntly, Week Four was an absolute shambles.
Nothing seemed to go right, and I paid the price through my DraftKings balance. I felt confident with my builds and process on the week, so the significance of the loss was a bit of a surprise.
As a result, I will be heading into Week Five lighter than anticipated, but that could be a blessing in disguise with the number of potent offenses off the main slate.
To say I am annoyed is an understatement, but I need to move on and focus on this week, which, as I have mentioned, could be another challenging week to navigate.
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 3
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 9
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 4
Jalen Hurts ($7,000)
Well, Hurts kind of backed up his word from last week. A 31.2 DK point performance in Week Four was evidence of this despite the loss of Kansas City. Now, Hurts can build some form of momentum in Week Five against Carolina in the hope that said momentum leads to some wins on the board.
Gaining momentum will be no easy task against a Carolina defense who acquired C.J. Henderson from Jacksonville and Stephon Gilmore from New England to enhance an already solid secondary unit. Now, based on Carolina’s Week Four performance, Carolina needed those upgrades if the outfit is serious about achieving anything this season beyond mediocrity.
Despite this, I like Hurts ability to overcome a challenging environment. The Philidelphia QB went to Arrowhead and impressively shown his skillset. Sometimes you have got to back the talent.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,400)
Tannehill is set for a big week, I feel. Despite being sacked seven times in the loss to New York, Tannehill posted 18 DK points whilst missing Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, who both expect to return in Week Five against Jacksonville before their trip to London.
Jacksonville has been a pretty poor defense in most facets but, in particular, giving up points to opposing QBs, ranking top 8 for points given up to the position. Furthermore, I would not be shocked to see Tannehill run in one this weekend, only greatening his chances to hit that stud value or higher.
Others to Consider
- Daniel Jones ($6,000)
- Jared Goff ($5,300)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 1
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 8
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
Kareem Hunt ($5,800)
Hunt has been a sneakily solid DFS play for three out of the first four weeks of the season, achieving 2.5x return on value or better. Maybe this is not too much of a surprise to the general DFS player in this run-first Cleveland offense, but it was to me, at least as not many are discussing Kareem.
Cleveland’s Week Five opponents, Los Angeles have shown severe weaknesses against designated run schemes this season, giving up 35 DK points to Pollard and Elliott of Dallas and reigniting CEH’s season for Kansas City, who previously looked shot of any effectiveness out of the backfield. Chubb and Hunt should continue this trend in Week Five in what is set to be a high-scoring and fascinating matchup.
Others to Consider
- Damien Williams ($5,600)
- Tampa Bay backs (Fournette, $5,200 and Jones $4,700)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 6
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 6
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 8
Ja’Marr Chase ($5,800) AND Tee Higgins ($5,000)
I like the Cincinnati passing attack this week for many reasons. The main pieces of the Green Bay secondary being banged up in Jaire Alexander and Kevin King. Or there is the factor of Joe Mixon not practising for Wednesday or Thursday this week, putting the whole Cincinnati rushing offense in limbo. The latter point only enhances the passing funnel that is Burrow’s target share.
As the brilliant @BestBallUKNFL states, 74.53% of Cincinnati’s target share goes to the wide receivers, so Chase and Higgins should eat nicely against a banged-up Green Bay secondary and the running game situation for Cincinnati.
It’s a simple equation. Lack of Joe Mixon = More passing attempts for Burrow + more targets for Chase and Higgins.
Marvin Jones Jr ($5,700)
I will happily buy low on Jones Jr in statistically the best matchup Jacksonville’s WRs could face in Tennessee.
Here are some of Tennessee’s stats allowed to WRs this season:
- 944 receiving yards (the most in the league, 236 yards per game)
- Average of 15.48 yards per reception
- Per game average of 2 TDs and 35 fantasy points to WRs
Jones is the No.1 target for Trevor Lawrence in the red zone (40% target share) and all over the field (24.06% target share overall), so getting the main guy feels the optimal strategy here.
Others to Consider
- CeeDee Lamb ($6,200)
- Sterling Shepard ($5,300) – *if healthy* – potentially pivot to Kadarius Toney ($4,000) if not
- Hunter Renfrow ($4,900)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 1
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 3
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Darren Waller, George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses.
The three names mentioned is where I am at with tight end as a position right now. Cameron Brate ($3,300) is an interesting one with Gronk now out injured. The Tampa Bay tight end saw six targets in Week Four but only caught two for 28 yards, as well as having a 64% snap share. In a favourable game script against Miami, Brate could make better use of those targets against a bottom-eight defense against TEs this season so far in Miami. Hunter Henry ($3,700) and Cole Kmet ($2,700) are interesting options if you are looking to punt the position.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 3
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 4
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
Arizona ($2,900)
*subject to Trey Lance starting for San Fransisco*
As much as I am a fan of Lance and expect him to light up the NFL in his rookie season, this seems like a tough spot against an inform DFS defense in Arizona.
Four interceptions, five defensive fumble recoveries and a whopping ten sacks, even with the context that six of those came in Week One. All that puts Arizona towards the top of the three in terms of PPG for defenses, and I would expect that to continue.
Arizona may lose the sack upside with Lance’s rushing ability, but the likelihood for interceptions increases, and who knows, they could even increase that fumble recovery total.
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Image Credit: Bill Streicher – USA TODAY Sports
