When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Six Review
Week Six went well! We were all over the right stacks, and the bring backs did okay on the whole, which helps. I find condensed slates easier. It was always an Adam Thielen week, and I wished I had thrown him in this article!
These types of weeks are ultimately easier to pick my lineups because I have fewer scenarios to consider, fewer players to evaluate, etc. Luckily for us, the same situation presents itself in Week Seven, albeit with worse games but plenty of opportunities to be had.
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 5
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 11
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
Tom Brady ($7,700)
I was going to write why I understand why people are avoiding Brady this week, but I don’t!
Yeah, his price has increased to the QB3 on the slate, but let’s look at the reasons why.
- Brady’s QBs finishes this season, week-by-week: QB5, QB3, QB4, QB28, QB3 and QB13
- 1st in the league in: Team pass plays per game, pass attempts, red zone pass attempts (2nd for passing TDs), deep ball attempts, passing yards and air yards
Going back to the QB finishes, if we narrow the games to which they were blowout wins, we are looking at these scenarios:
- Week Two: 48-25 win over Atlanta – 276 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, QB3 ranking on the week
- Week Five: 45-17 win over Miami – 411 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, QB3 ranking on the week
Does anyone fancy a blowout win for Tampa Bay at home to Chicago? I certainly do. The best things come in threes, after all.
At a projected 2.9% ownership also, Brady is the ultimate leverage play in Week Seven.
Jalen Hurts ($6,900)
Hurts is the perfect fantasy quarterback. Continuous 2.5 to 3x returns week-on-week provides that consistency from a QB who has been far from actually achieving this on the field in terms of leading this Philidelphia side.
Hurts mobility is what is maintaining these levels of production. With four rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks, it has nullified his struggles in the passing game. The same scenario could play out here for a third week in a row, with Hurts going up against the 25th ranked rush defense and top 10 defense against the pass in Las Vegas.
Others to Consider
- Matt Ryan ($5,700)
- Daniel Jones ($5,400) – A high-risk, high-reward player, play at your own risk.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 4
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 10
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
Darrell Henderson ($6,600)
The case for Henderson this week pretty much remains the same as last week, except this week, he is arguably in a better matchup than the previous.
A section taken from my Week Six article:
“This selection has to be the easiest of the week for me and has the chance to be the most destructive likely. In his starts, Henderson has displayed a solid RB2 floor with occasional RB1 upside, not dropping below the RB20 rank on a week-to-week basis so far this season.
This showcases Henderson as a great cash play this week, but the matchup in New York allows him to be more than that.” The potential to be more is only enhanced this week, with Detroit being the WORST defense in the NFL when it comes to DK points allowed as a whole (34ppg) and in the red zone (10.9 ppg).
Joe Mixon ($6,500)
DFS is a simple game sometimes. Just follow the volume, and Mixon has plenty of it. Five weeks on 18+ touches show that Cinncinati wants to focus the offense around Mixon and backs up the offseason coaching acquisitions.
Last week, we saw how Baltimore against Los Angeles just got continuous pressure on Herbert, something they lacked in the late win over Indianapolis in the prior week. Who says Baltimore cannot keep up this pressure when Burrow drops back in the pocket this week? Sixteen sacks on the season for Burrow, ranking sixth-highest in the league, a bottom half league average pocket time does not bode well for a defense who will be on a high.
This reads as more touches for Mixon here, regardless of the game script that presents itself, and with Baltimore being a bottom eight defense to the RB position on points allowed per game (28.3), I sense an opportunity to strike.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,100)
I do like the look of Hubbard this week. This is primarily because of how incompetent the Carolina passing attack looked in the defeat to Minnesota and that New York is the Week Seven opponents for Hubbard, a team who have been appalling against the RB on the season. The 29th ranked defense against RBs got exposed by Darrell Henderson, a player who was played heavily last week, but I doubt Hubbard tracks the same ownership.
Pace and number of plays will be up for this one, mostly because of how inept both offenses in New York and Carolina are, but they are a few pieces that have shown promise when given the opportunity, and Hubbard is one of those. Expecting an uptick in the passing game for Hubbard helps his case also.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 11
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 10
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 11
Chris Godwin ($5,900)
I have looked at this price for days, and I still don’t understand why Godwin is this cheap.
A little run-through of Godwin’s numbers this season:
- TB pass plays per game: 45 (1st in the league)
- 198 slot snaps (3rd in the league)
- 245 routes run (1st in the league)
- 13 red zone targets (1st in the league)
And you are telling me that Brandin Cooks is more expensive than Godwin? Okay, DraftKings. With all the initial injuries on this Tampa Bay receiver core as of writing this, my confidence in this play only grows.
Antonio Brown being out only helps our case here.
Sterling Shepard ($5,600)
Onto another silly price on a smaller slate, Shepard screams upside this week. After missing two weeks, Shepard returned last week, saw his typical snap count (94.8%), and made the most of it, seeing 14 targets and 10 receptions in a positive game script for his case. You have to think deja vu will occur in Week Seven, with Carolina next up. Yes, Carolina’s offense has stalled sightly passing-wise, but they are still a better football team overall than New York.
*UPDATE* – Shepard coming up on the injury report with a hamstring issue is rather annoying, but I am keeping him in the article in case he goes. With Golladay and Toney out, the upside is there, but please play with caution.
Others to Consider
- Calvin Ridley ($6,600)
- Darnell Mooney ($4,600)
- Rashod Bateman ($3,400)
- Tyler Johnson ($3,000)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 4
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 5
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses.
Zach Ertz ($3,900)
The newest toy in Arizona feels like a solid play to follow this week. Ultimately, you follow the capital Arizona spent on the tight end to acquire him from Philidelphia. Maxx Williams, who Ertz is replacing after Williams was placed on IR, has had two top 12 tight end rankings this season (TE4 in Week Two and TE6 in Week Four). There’s a specific reason Arizona acquired Ertz. When you go onto Player Profiler and lookup Williams profile, who is his comparable player? You guessed it, Zach Ertz.
The new acquisition will be utilised heavily in this offense, and he gets to start his time as a Card in a high-total matchup against a sorry Houston side. Sign me up.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 5
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 5
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
A lot of big favourites and a reduced slate makes selecting D/STs difficult this week. Of course, Los Angeles ($5,000) and Tampa Bay ($4,000) stand out, two big home favourites, especially Tampa against rookie Fields, who is still showing some growing pains.
With all the rumoured mess happening in Miami, Atlanta ($2,700) has to be a consideration at their price. Yes, their play this season has been far from desirable but look who they are playing? A team in chaos, scrambling to find resolutions in all the wrong areas, versus a team coming off a bye and a win. I will take my chances on this Atlanta side.
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Image Credit: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports
