When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Seven Review
Another solid week for myself in Week Seven makes it back-to-back weeks for 4x returns on stakes, which I cannot complain about whatsoever!
As referred to last week, these types of weeks are ultimately easier to pick your lineups because you have fewer scenarios to consider, fewer players to evaluate, etc.
Apologies for my running back picks. They were terrible. The Cincinnati game was one I called horribly. Mixon got nowhere near the work I thought he would get, and instead, Chase had a career day. Luckily the field was lightweight on Chase, so his impact was minimal, but that won’t happen again from my perspective and the field.
On the other hand, happy with the returns on plays like Godwin, who became more obvious as the week went on, Ertz in his debut for Arizona, and Jalen Hurts continues to prove his matchup-proof qualities.
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 7
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 12
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
The QB position this week is not the most appetising whatsoever. I have listened and read hours worth of content this week, trying to see if I could sway the other way on certain players and scripts, but I cannot, and that is worrying for this slate’s viability.
Josh Allen ($8,100) is someone I am confident will smash once again this season against Miami. The Buffalo QB put up a very modest 17.6 DK points in Week Two against their division rival, but you have to expect that to change on home turf. My rationale for this theory is down to Tua playing more than four snaps this game, which he could not manage in the reverse fixture. There is a competitive game this time around, and to be honest, Tagovailoa is likely playing for his life as a Dolphin in Week 8, and that sucks to write. Maybe that makes him of equal value at $5,500 but expect Allen to have another ceiling performance, especially if he sneaks one in on the ground too.
Plays like Justin Herbert ($7,300), Matt Ryan ($5,900) feel like traps to me. The latter especially, with that Carolina secondary only getting stronger when Stephon Gilmore set to make his debut in Week 8. Herbert could struggle with the passing game as his weapons on the outside do not traditionally suit the norm of beating Belichick, so Ekeler could be the key in that one, but we will get onto that.
Early ownership projects Joe Burrow ($7,100) to be a solid leverage play at 1.4% currently. It makes based on the $900 price hike, but it considers who they are facing, New York with Mike White under centre. The run game may have a factor here, but they cannot do it all.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 4
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 11
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 8
Austin Ekeler ($7,900)
I have referred that I think Herbert and Los Angeles will have to go through Ekeler a lot this week to keep control of this home game coming off of a bye. Herbert has had to do the previous statement a lot this season anyway, looking at the numbers, with Ekeler being top 12 in targets, red zone opportunities, as well as opportunity share as a whole and Ekeler, has made the most of this.
- 7 touchdowns on the season (tied for 2nd highest among position)
- 21.5 fantasy points per game (2nd amongst positional peers)
- Top 5 amongst RBs for receiving yards and receptions
As we always say, follow the volume and, in this case, the production.
Damien Harris ($6,100)
The beauty of being a good chunk of the way through the season is that we regularly have reliable data sets, and the following few selections fall right into that sweet spot of data.
Narrowing down the data points from Week 5 to 7, we see Los Angeles allowing the second-most points to the RB position overall (42.8) and second-most in the red zone (17.9) through the same period. This is perfect timing for Harris, a running back who has re-established himself as the primary back in a volatile backfield under Belichick.
95 carries on the season (9th overall in the league) provides some security on volume, too, although the lack of a passing role is a concern, with everyone but Harris seeing work in this area. Harris still feels like he is worth your time and money in your lineups despite this.
Antonio Gibson ($5,700) / JD McKissic ($5,100)
Using the same data sets from the previous selection, Denver comes out as the team that have given up the third-most points to RBs (36.9). Their opponents, Washington, have an interesting running back room this week, with lead back Gibson dealing with an ongoing shin issue. If Gibson misses, McKissic is a lovely play and probably becomes chalk, which would be annoying.
In an ideal world, Gibson trends in a positive direction all week and plays significantly in Week 8. It is a storyline to follow throughout the week and react promptly.
Others to Consider
- Najee Harris ($7,500)
- Samaje Perine ($4,900)
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 13
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 11
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 12
Buffalo WRs
I will not often condone playing all of a passing offense’s primary targets but in Buffalo’s case, play them all, perhaps except for Gabriel Davis.
Stefon Diggs ($8,100) and Cole Beasley ($4,900) are my favourite two plays out of the core passing game. Diggs finally had his first WR1 performance on the season in Week 6 against Tennessee and can carry this form going forward coming off of their bye week. Furthermore, Diggs is still 8th in unrealised air yards (354 yards) on the season, meaning more is still to come for the elite wideout. Slot machine Beasley is in a prime spot to have a big game against a team that has not defended the slot all season.
DeVonta Smith ($5,500)
The play of Smith comes from an angle of unrealised potential so far, thanks to Hurts struggles in the passing game. With Smith ranking 12th in air yards, 9th in air yard share (40.3%) and 7th in unrealised air yards, this potential is safe to say untapped. And all this is without mentioning the countless number of touchdowns called back this season, leaving the rookie with only one receiving touchdown to his name.
The matchup against Detriot allows for Smith to redeem some of those due air yards and touchdowns into actual fantasy points against a side that rank bottom five for points allowed to the WR position as a whole (28th) and in the red zone (30th).
Others to Consider
- Diontae Johnson ($6,700)
- Robby Anderson ($4,700) – yes, I will be playing Anderson this week.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 3
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 4
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
Kyle Pitts now enters the group of players who can automatically break the slate for the tight end position. Pitts has shown that big-play upside and now dominates enough of the target share in this Atlanta offense that you can safely assume is dependable.
Outside of Pitts, Tyler Higbee ($4,500) feels like a safe play after we attacked this position for tight ends last week with Zach Ertz, and it worked out nicely. Houston is bad against tight ends, like the worst in the league bad, and Los Angeles can take advantage of that. I expect Higbee to see his typical five reception game in Week 8 but hope a touchdown carries him over the 3x value line and achieves that necessary upside. Mo Alie-Cox ($3,200) has quietly become a 2-3x dependable play at the position, too, catching a touchdown in three of the last four games (4 TDs in total). QB Wentz seems to have taken a liking to him, which has probably come about due to the ever-changing door of available Indianapolis receivers. ‘Big Mo’ as some call him is by no means a safe play, but it could free up extra DK dollars that you need to upgrade a position or two.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 6
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 7
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
Looking at the D/ST prices this week, many people will flock to Cincinnati ($3,600). The unfortunate news of Zach Wilson being injured for two to four weeks means Mike White will be starting at QB for New York, who threw two interceptions against New England.
I will likely pivot to a lesser-owned play like Buffalo ($3,300), a defense hitting a 50% ceiling rate so far this season and have shut down Miami once already this season, admittedly with a different QB at the helm. Plus, Buffalo should be healthier coming off of a bye. Another team in a similar situation is Jacksonville ($2,400), travelling to Seattle, a team on a short week following their MNF commitments. They are likely to be depleted after their Week Seven defeat, which Jacksonville could take advantage of.
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