When it comes to DFS, everyone looks for those slate-breaking players (and if you are not, then you should be!), players who can win you the big bucks if they have a day and lower ownership, even better! This especially matters in tournaments, where you are looking to differentiate from your competition and sometimes even yourself and your other lineups, as opposed to cash games, where you would be after more ‘safer’ lineups to secure a more likely pot of cash.
These articles will highlight those players who I feel can break the week’s slate and players you should be, at the very least, considering, going for position-by-position.
Week Eight Review
Week Eight always looked to be a difficult one, and that it proved to be.
The lineups built never got to the level they needed to be at for significant cashing purposes, which was a bit frustrating. However, when you are an all or nothing GPP player, this will happen, and you have to accept that.
Week 9 feels a bit of deja vu from Week 8, in all honesty, so I must correct mistakes from last week and home in on the right plays and games to hit that upside once again.
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Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 8
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 14
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 7
I wouldn’t say I like tipping up chalkier plays on these articles, but Lamar Jackson ($7,300) feels too important to ignore this week. It is primarily because of the spot the one-time MVP finds himself in, against a team in Minnesota who rank poorly against the run, especially against designated schemes, as shown by their performances against the Bengals (136 rushing yards allowed), Browns (180 rushing yards allowed) and Lions (108 rushing yards allowed).
This week, my only concern with Jackson is Minnesota’s top 10 rank for points allowed against QBs this season (9th, 18.6 ppg). Jackson’s rushing upside here should get him across the line, but I do not think he warrants the chalk that everyone seems to be loving.
A QB who I think again this week is going under the radar is Joe Burrow ($6,800). A player whose floor is super high, with his points not dropping below the 21-point mark since Week 3 and three touchdowns thrown in each of his last three games. Now the Cincinnati QB takes on a Cleveland team who, over the previous three weeks (two games), 31st in points allowed to the QB position (25) and 30th for the same ranking in the red zone (10.4).
Jordan Love ($4,400) feels like an absolute must-consideration for your lineups this week. The Green Bay QB was confirmed as the starter on Sunday against Kansas City with Aaron Rodgers immunisation scandal coming to light and seeing the QB being ruled out with COVID-19. Love’s 3x achievability this week is so low that even a non-standout day gets you that value you need in your lineups to hit the big bucks in all competitions. Plus, Kansas City’s defense has not shown much resistance to opposing QBs this season, ranking 31st for DK points allowed on the season in general and in the red zone.
With the announcement of Tyrod Taylor ($5,000) being the starter at QB for Houston this Sunday against Miami, I will probably have a lineup or two with Taylor in them. This is purely because Miami is ranking the worst defense against QBs over the last three weeks, giving up 28.5 points per game over that period. Furthermore, with how quick Miami’s games are in terms of pace, Houston should be plenty of the ball and, therefore, plenty of chances to score points!
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 6
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 13
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 10
With how poor running back looks as a position this week, Corradelle Patterson ($6,300) comes out as one of the stronger plays at the position. However, this is of no detriment to C-Patt, who, if we discount Week One and Atlanta’s bye week, has been a weekly RB2 fantasy performer as his floor. Patterson’s explosiveness has been a key to his success for me, a 1.29 fantasy points per opportunity stat (4th among RBs) and 6.3 yards per touch (6th among RBs) showcase this, and all of this in predominately negative game scripts!
New Orleans overall are a solid team against the run, but we are not targetting the matchup here, we are targetting the talent, and C-Patt certainly has that going for him right now.
I rarely recommend a Miami player slot in your lineups with Myles Gaskin ($5,800) feels like a solid play this week in a match that could go vastly under-owned.
This matchup, for me, will show the pass-catching side of Gaskin once again, a side that saw the Miami back have 10 receptions, 74 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air against Tampa Bay. Gaskin seems to get this type of work when in negative game scripts, both Buffalo matches and the aforementioned Tampa Bay as examples. Houston getting ahead in his game is much more realistic than some want to believe.
I like the Dallas running backs in Elliott ($7,000) and Pollard ($4,700), but I have no clue who to play out of the two. I feel both are due to see some more work out of the backfield, especially the latter in Pollard, who saw his season-low number of eight touches coming off of their bye. This Denver matchup is quite a sneakily good one for the duo, with Denver allowing the third-most points to the RB position over the last three weeks. If CeeDee Lamb ends up missing Sunday’s game also, even more reason to play Dallas’ backs in Week Nine.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 14
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 12
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 14
There is a lot of value this week at the wide receiver position, almost as much as there was in the first few weeks, so there are plenty of plays to go for, but getting the right combination may be challenging.
Emmanuel Sanders ($5,600) is one of those value plays this week. The Buffalo receiver’s routes run have seemed to fluctuate, as have his targets which is why we were so keen on Cole Beasley last week. However, I feel Allen can maximise Sanders’s deep threat ability this week in a favourable spot against Jacksonville. Plus, as we like to target players who are ultimately ‘due’ points, Sanders falls into this category for me and ranks 9th for unrealised air yards amongst his position. Finally, Sanders leads the league in endzone targets alongside Scary Terry McLaurin and Marquise Brown.
With only 4.7% projected ownership as of Friday evening, Sanders has the matchup, volume an upside to perform in your lineups.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,000) is another value receiver who visits the Dallas fantasy carnival in Week Nine. Last week, Jeudy came off of IR and had a steady performance catching all four of his targets for 39 yards.
“Denver leans towards the pass in the red zone with a touchdown pass/rush rate of 13:4” – @BestBallUKNFL DFS Week 9 Deep Dive
The quote above is encouraging for me because of the matchup and how poor Dallas are against QBs (most points allowed in the league) and WRs (third-most) in the red zone, where the upside lies. The Dallas defense is overrated, and component offenses will expose them. Denver is up next.
The final two plays in Bryan Edwards ($4,100) and Rashod Bateman ($4,000) are very much on the cheaper side and will not be this way for much longer. Starting with Edwards, the sad news coming out of Las Vegas this week benefits the rookie the most from a purely footballing perspective. Edwards is likely to take up most of the vacated targets and has a great chance to achieve the 3x value needed. Bateman also at 4k seems a bit of a cheat code on this slate and a simple 3x return at a minimum this week. In Week 7, the Baltimore receiver did precisely that. Whilst I am concerned sightly with how successful Lamar Jackson will be passing-wise in Week Nine, I think Bateman is priced softly enough to which Bateman can return value.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 3
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 5
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 6
Whenever I write a Tight Ends section of this weekly article, I will throw Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews automatically as players who could break the slate. They all have that big-play upside and dominate enough of the target share in their respected offenses. Kyle Pitts is a talent who could fluctuate in and out of this grouping. He is, of course, a rookie, so his performance should be expected to be inconsistent as of now whilst he still adapts to the league.
Jared Cook ($3,300) is a play that intrigues me this week. Not only the team he plays on, Los Angeles rank third in team pass plays per game (40.3 per game), but Cook ranks 6th in slot snaps, 10th in targets and 8th in unrealised air yards amongst TEs. The only negative? 4 drops on the season, which is the second-highest amongst his peers. However, the positives outweigh the negatives in this scenario, especially when Cook’s opponents, Philidelphia, allow the seventh-most fantasy points to TEs over the last three weeks and second-most in the red zone.
Slate-breaker history
Studs (3x plus return): 6
Average Joes (2.1 – 2.9x return): 9
Scrubs (2x or lower return): 5
It is hard to get a grasp on defenses this week for me. The best sub 3k play on paper looks to be Las Vegas ($2,900), facing Daniel Jones and the Giants, with Jones having a history of being a points generator for opposing defenses.
Of course, if you feel Jordan Love is terrible deputising for Aaron Rodgers on Sunday, then Kansas City ($2,300) probably appeals, but it is one I will be staying clear of personally.
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Image Credit: Ken Blaze – USA TODAY Sports
