Welcome to Week 16 of the 2022 season, and the latest in our Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em series. This is the semi-finals of the fantasy playoffs for most of us, as such these decisions are now in the make or break realm.
As always, if you are struggling with a decision you can checkout our rankings for each Week. Or, if you want a more personal touch, reach out on social media. You can find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Or jump into our Discord server. All stats refer to 1/2 PPR, 6 point per passing touchdown leagues. Follow me on Twitter @FFMadScientist
Start’Em
Tom Brady v ARI
We are going to start off with what is going to be a reoccurring theme this week, weather. Tom Brady has not been his usual self this season but in week 16 he gets a juicy matchup with the Cardinals and is one of the few games that will be played in a dome free from weather concerns. Fire up Brady in this ultra safe spot.
Geno Smith v KC
Geno faces of against the third worst pass defense in the league, the Chiefs. The Chiefs allow 20.23 to opposing quarterbacks on average and Geno should pass the ball at will even without Tyler Lockett in the lineup. This game could experience some weather but it is currently projected as one of the games that wont face significant enough weather to avoid. Start Geno with confidence.
Aaron Rodgers v MIA
Rodgers has shown signs of life lately and hasn’t been a total mess. In week 16 he faces the Dolphins 31st ranked pass defense allowing 21.34 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Rodgers seems to have a good trio of weapons in Doubs, Watson and Lazard and should find himself as a low end QB1. Start him this week for a steady presence in your lineup.
Sit’Em
Dak Prescott v PHI
Dak has failed to live up to his early career success and has been a low end QB1 at best this season, despite all the weapons he has he can’t be trusted against an elite Eagles defense that allows an average of 12.77 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This figures to be a tightly played game and I can’t see Dak lighting up the scoreboard. If you have better options, you should play them this week.
Trevor Lawrence v NYJ
Trevor Lawrence has been on fire lately but that success will meet two rather large hurdles in the form of wet and windy weather and the Jets elite pass defense that allows 14.16 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It will take much fortitude to sit the red hot Lawrence but if you have any trustworthy options that’s exactly what you should be doing this week.
Start ‘Em
Alvin Kamara v CLE
Alvin Kamara has been a huge bust based on his high draft capital and his performance of late will not inspire you to start him with great confidence this week, but with a matchup against the 29th ranked rush defense in the Cleveland Browns it sets up very nicely for him. This game is the one that will be effected most by the weather and is off limits to me for all passing options, Kamara could see a huge workload in a game where passing may not be an option. Start Kamara and hope he breaks loose on one of his potentially many carries.
Devin Singletary v CHI
Singletary saw plenty of success early in the season but has faded of late and has seen his workload cut into by James Cook, but in another potentially snowing and windy game he should see plenty of opportunities against the 24th ranked Bears run defense. Start Singletary as a solid RB2.
Jerick McKinnon v SEA
McKinnon has been the number one running back in fantasy over the last two weeks and gets a date with the 31st ranked Seahawks run defense that couldn’t stop a high school running back. Seattle allows an average of 28.87 points per game to opposing running backs and even if Isaih Pacheco steals a few touches from him he should easily rack up another league winning week. Start him and hope for another top 5 finish.
Sit ‘Em
Joe Mixon @NE
Mixon has been hot, cold and injured over the majority of this season and has a real Samaje Perine problem. In addition to a Perine problem, and large inconsistencies Mixon will also have to contend with some modest weather issues and the second best run defense in the league in the Patriots. This list of issues for Mixon adds up to me sitting him everywhere I can afford to, which speaking from experience is not very many places. In my case, I’m going to be starting him and praying he falls into the endzone or breaks off a long run to save his day.
James Conner v TB
Conner has been rock solid since returning from injury but this week he lines up against the 6th ranked defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay allows an average of 18.95 points per game to opposing running backs and a Cardinals offence run by Trace McSorley is unlikely to be very effective, limited any touchdown equity Conner has. Much like Mixon, sit him anywhere you can. If you can’t sit him, temper your expectations.
Start ‘Em
Amon-Ra St. Brown v CAR
St. Brown has been one of the top wide receivers for fantasy the last month and in week 16 he gets the Panthers who rank 22nd against the wide receivers, allowing an average of 35.37 points per game. The Lions need this game, look for their high flying offense to pull out all the stops and you can expect St. Brown to be the center piece of that attack. Amon-Ra should be fired up as a top tier option and can expected to be a league winner once again.
DK Metcalf v KC
This week the Seahawks get the Chiefs 28th ranked pass defense that gives up an average of 36.89 points per game to opposing wide receivers, combine that with the absence of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could be in for a season high in targets and fantasy points. Start Metcalf everywhere as a WR1.
Garrett Wilson v JAC
Wilson has been impressive as a rookie this season and despite a quarterback carousel in New York he has produced. Wilson faces the Jaguars who are 24th against the pass allowing 35.59 points per game. I like Wilson a lot more if Mike white is able to play this week, but even with Zach Wilson and potentially bad weather Garrett Wilson seems unstoppable right now. Start Wilson as a high end WR2.
Sit ’em
Christian Kirk v NYJ
On the other side of this potentially wet and sloppy game is Christian Kirk. Trevor Lawrence has been on fire lately but unfortunately for Kirk the majority of that has gone to Zay Jones. Add in a meeting with a surprisingly elite Jets pass defense and I would steer clear of him wherever possible. Sit Kirk and his potentially bust worthy week 16.
Michael Pittman v LAC
No weather concerns here, just a matchup with the Chargers in store for Nick Foles and the Colts. The Chargers aren’t a pass defense to target or avoid, they are however so bad at stopping the run that teams pretty much limit their offense to a heavy ground game. Jonathan Taylor will be out this week and the majoirty of the work should go to Moss and Jackson to avoid relying too heavily on Foles. I would steer clear of all Colts pass catchers in this horribly inept offense.
Start ‘Em
TJ Hockenson v NYG
Hockenson has new life and increased usage since his trade to Minnesota and while he doesn’t get a prime matchup this weekend he does get the benefit of being one of the few startable tight ends who will be playing in a dome. So with no weather considerations at play Hockenson, who currently sits as TE2 on the season is as solid a start as there is at tight end in week 16.
Darren Waller v PIT
Waller returned to the Raiders lineup last week and instantly paid dividends. This week he faces the Steelers who are a neutral tight end matchup in what figures to be a very cold game. The cold has not translated into success for Derek Carr and he may look to check down the ball early and often which should lead to a healthy target share for Waller. Start Waller and expect him to produce another top 5 tight end result.
Pat Freiermuth v LV
The other tight end in this game is my next favorite tight end on the list, which isn’t saying much because this is a particularly bad week for tight ends. Freiermuth gets to face the 24th ranked Raiders pass defense but it’s not known yet what quarterback he gets to face them with. Whether it’s Pickett or Trubisky this is a juicy matchup that he should be able to easily exploit. Start The Muth as a top 5 tight end this week.
Sit ’em
David Njoku v NO
Njoku’s career has come roaring back to life this season and he has looked like a locked and loaded top 6 tight end but this week he faces the 3rd ranked defense against tight ends in a New Orleans team that allows just 8.09 fantasy points per game on average. This game is also the game I’m completely avoiding due to the weather making Njoku an easy bench this week. Sit Njoku and stream someone who wont play in the worst weather game in years.
Cole Kmet v BUF
The Bills and Bears game may not be as bad as the game above, but the weather will likely be an issue here as well. This game figures to feature a ton of the ground game and Cole Kmet is likely to see another week of limited usage in a Bears offense that consists mainly of Justin Fields running all over the field to score.
Start ‘Em
Los Angeles Chargers v IND
The Chargers spent the majority of the year as a bottom five D/ST but have been strong the last three weeks and no one has really taken notice. I added them across all of my leagues a few weeks back taking note of a wonderful fantasy playoff schedule which included a matchup this week against the best matchup for D/ST’s, the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts allow an average of 10.86 points per game to opposing defenses and will face an improving Chargers defense without Jonathan Taylor and with Mick Foles making his first start of the season, all this adds up to the Chargers being a top 5 D/ST this week. Start the Chargers everywhere this week.
Denver Broncos v LAR
The broncos have been an elite defense all year long and simply shut down opposing offenses. This week they get a Los Angeles rams team that has all but packed up and gone home for the last month of this season. The Rams have no quarterback, no receivers and their tight end Higbee has vanished. This leaves Cam Akers as the lone threat in their offense. Start the Broncos D/ST and hope a touchdown spikes their value against a depleted offense.
Sit ‘Em
Dallas Cowboys v PHI
The NFC elites meet in this week 16 showdown and I wouldn’t trust either defense in a fantasy matchup as they could both be scored on early and often. I like the Cowboys slightly more than the Eagles (below) but only because Philadelphia is likely to start Gardner Minshew at quarterback over the injured Jalen Hurts. If you have better options, now is the time to sit Dallas and play them… or grab the Chargers off the waiver wire.
Philadelphia Eagles v DAL
Another elite defense that I will be sitting this week for the Los Angeles Chargers. Everything I said about the Cowboys applies to my sit reasoning for the Eagles except that the Eagles will have to face Dak Prescott and not a back up quarterback making them an even worse start than Dallas. Sit Philly in this one if you have better choices… or like I said above…. add the Chargers!
Start ‘Em
Ryan Succop v ARI
Succop has been one of the more reliable kickers this season and is one of the few kickers in week 16 who gets the double bonus of a bottom 10 opponent against kickers and the luxury of kicking inside a dome this week. Succop is a safe pick on a Buccaneers team that should have little trouble with a horrible Cardinals team. Start Succop confidently and enjoy not having to worry about the elements.
Graham Gano v MIN
Gano also gets the luxury of kicking in a dome this week, but Gano is blessed with a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings who rank as the worst team in the league against kicker. The Vikings allow a point per game more on average to opposing kickers and inside a dome they don’t figure to stop hemorrhaging points to Gano. Start Graham and watch him make kick after kick indoors.
Sit ‘Em
Cairo Santos v BUF
Santos gets the double negative of matchup and weather. He faces a Bills team that is the 4th worst for opposing kickers allowing 6.29 fantasy points per game, and he gets to face them in one of the worst weather games of the season. Santos struggles to perform in good matchups and good weather, sit him with confidence in the elements against an elite defense.
Matt Prater v TB
Prater is one of the few kickers who won’t have to contend with the elements this week but despite that luxury he will be kicking for a Cardinals team that may not get the ball across midfield. Prater also faces a Buccaneers team that allows the 4th lowest points to opposing kickers. Sit Prater with ease and pivot to someone else on the waiver wire.
Well that’s it for our Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em for Week 16 of the 2022 season. Remember, you can check out rankings for each Week. Reach out on social media, you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Or jump into our Discord server. Follow me on Twitter @FFMadScientist
Image Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports
Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em 2022 Week 14
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