It’s finally here- Week 18 and the final Saturday slate of the 2022 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
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Kansas City @Las Vegas
On a short slate, Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) is hard to ignore with his ability to blow up. The Chiefs still have the #1 seed to play for collectively, and Mahomes is 429 yards shy of Peyton Manning’s season record of 5,477 yards. This season, he has had two games right around that total- so it could happen with the pieces on offense and the weakness of the Raiders defense.
On the other side of the ball, Jarrett Stidham ($5,400) looks to be the starter for the Raiders again, and the discount is real. Stidham was great against a tough 49ers defense, throwing for 365 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs. The Chiefs secondary is (on paper) a much easier unit to play against, so there’s little to put you off here. Stidham is the ‘bottom’ QB play for me on this slate.
Tennessee @Jacksonville
I’m not really interested in Joshua Dobbs ($5,100). He did fine last week against the Cowboys in a strange game for the Titans, but there isn’t really too much upside here with this run-first offense. If I’m paying down, I’d opt for Stidham as I said before.
I think with the pricing on this slate the chalk is going to be Trevor Lawrence ($6,100). A ‘win-and-in’ for both teams, with the Jaguars likely to exploit the weakness in the Titans secondary, and has been looking comfortable in the offense. Hasn’t thrown a TD the past two weeks, but that was really due to the matchups. In the reverse game earlier this season, he thre for 368 yards, 3 TDs as well as sneaking in for a TD on the ground. With the discount from Mahomes, and matchup, he is going to be heavily owned.
Kansas City @Las Vegas
The place where this position is won or lost on the slate is the Chiefs backfield. Isiah Pacheco ($5,600) is getting the carries in the offense, but hasn’t been getting into the endzone and isn’t involved in the passing game. Jerick McKinnon ($6,300) on the other hand is on a scoring streak, with 8 TDs in his last 5 games, and is heavily used in the receiving game. Getting the selection right here is going to help you get a decent lineup together. For weeks I’d been banging the drum on Pacheco having a big game with the volume on the ground and it hasn’t happened. With Mahomes going for the passing record, I’m now leaning towards McKinnon as the ‘hot-hand’. Especially with DK’s PPR scoring.
There is little to dislike about Josh Jacobs ($7,400). He had a great game against the 49ers (when you consider their defensive line) with 69 yards and a TD on the ground, and 4 receptions for 26 yards through the air. Really his inclusion is a question between him and Henry in the other game.
Tennessee @Jacksonville
As we reach the tail end of the season, we get into Derrick Henry ($8,000) season. He has had 3 back-to-back games with 100+ yard games and a TD in each. The commitment to the run for the Titans is their offensive blueprint, and the Jaguars defense have struggled to defend the position with an average of 24.5 DKPts given up to the position this season.
For me, Travis Etienne ($6,700) is going to be overlooked on the slate. The reason is simple- he doesn’t get in the endzone enough. His TD last week was his first since Week 9. With the struggles he had in Week 14, we could see him struggle. But his is getting a solid amount of volume regardless of game flow, with him operating as an effective receiver too.
With more options at the WR position, I’m pulling out my favored plays here instead of looking at it on a game by game basis.
Davante Adams v KC ($8,800)
I’ll be honest, I was worried about Adams performing last week with a new QB in the offense. But, I should’ve remembered- it’s Davante Adams. He can make plays regardless of who is throwing the ball. Against this Chiefs secondary, he should continue to be the leading target for the offense here and (likely) the top scoring receiver on the slate by a little bit of distance.
Christian Kirk/ Zay Jones v TEN ($6,200/ $5,000)
The Jaguars receivers should be able to have a great game in this one with the weakness of the Titans secondary. Kirk has had waves of success, but the last two games have really been a dud with just 5 catches and 43 yards combined. For me, feels like the safer option as the Jaguars dink up the field. I’m fine with Kirk.
I do have a preference for Jones though. The $1.2k is a nice saving on a slate that has few elite pieces, and he has been hitting form in the second half of the season. As with Kirk, he has struggled in his last two games with four catches and 38 yards. But, unlike Kirk, his boom games have destroyed the slate. Against the Titans a few weeks ago, it was Jones that out-targetted Kirk (12 to 7).
Treylon Burks @JAX ($4,200)
Burks is having a fine rookie season, but has been suffering in this run-first offense. He is starting to look like he could fit the same role that A.J. Brown left as a big receiver that can break a long gain. Didn’t play in the game against the Jaguars earlier this season after being injured the week before, but was looking good before that and returned to form last week against Dallas. At the price, he is a nice pay-down option on the slate.
Kansas City Receivers
Ok, I lied when I said I’d look at individual players. The thin is I wrote up one player, then wanted to mention another.
Ultimately, it’s going to be trying to find the right receiver that has a good game and gets in the endzone.
Juju Smith-Schuster ($5,400) has been working well in the offense as the ‘secondary’ receiver behind Travis Kelce. Could pop, as he has shown a few weeks ago, but suffers from not playing deep unlike the other receivers on the team.
Playing Kadarius Toney ($4,000) is a risky play, with his involvement in the offense being very patchy, and not having a snap count higher that 45% on the season. I’ll have a share or two, but I’m not going wild with him.
Instead, I’m looking to alternate between Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,900) and Mecole Hardman ($3,700). Hardman is back from IR and will be alternating the deep threat with MVS, who has been getting plenty of downfield targets. With their prices, they really don’t have to do too much with any reception likely being for a big score. Of all of the plays, MVS feels like the one I’m most comfortable with given the number of targets he has been getting in the offense overall
Kansas City @Las Vegas
Travis Kelce ($7,900) is the prime piece at the TE postion, with his role closer to that of a top-tier WR than TE. There isn’t too much more to write about Kelce. He is a target hog in the offense, with 145 on the season, and getting production to follow. The Raiders restricted him last time the teams met to just 25 yards. But, then again that was his freak 4 TD game- so he is a nice play on this slate against the Raiders.
For lineup building, you are likely to need to consider at least a double-TE build if you go with Kelce due to the cost.
On the other side of the ball, you can consider Darren Waller ($4,400) in this game. A nice discount from Kelce, but has shown the ability that people hoped for in the offseason, getting targets and finding the endzone. Last time out with a new QB, he was second on the team in targets behind Davante Adams (11). A nice pivot from Kelce with a $3.5k saving.
Tennessee @Jacksonville
For the Titans, we are looking at a bit of a timeshare. Chig Okonkwo ($3,300) hasn’t really been getting on the field recently, but has shown he has real ability as a receiver with his size and speed. Austin Hooper ($2,700) has been consistently on the field, but has been hugely hit or miss. They did both perform decently against the Jaguars in Week 14 (Okonkwo 6/6/45/1 and Hooper 5/5/68). At the price they are interesting in a double-TE play (if you go for Kelce) or a salary-saving option otherwise.
Evan Engram ($4,500) really didn’t need to get involved against the Texans as the team strolled to a comfortable win, catching a single pass for 16 yards. But in the previous three weeks he really had an established role in the offense with 26 receptions for 337 yards and 2 TDs. For me, if I’m not playing Kelce I’m opting for Engram with the Titans giving up a top-4 15.4 DKPts to the position this season. (Also worth noting it was against the Titans that Engram went crazy with a 11 reception, 162 yard and 2 score game).
Being honest, don’t think about the DST position too much. I’m comfortable spending down on the Raiders DST ($2,200) provided it means I am getting multiple studs in my lineup. The Raiders can get after the QB, and Mahomes has been sacked 24 times this season (and 3 times when the teams met earlier this season).
This week, with just two games, there aren’t alot of options here. Select your lineup and choose a DST to match. FWIW I currently have the Jaguars and Chiefs as DST7 & DST8 on the week, with the Titans and Raiders right at the bottom of the league this week.
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