It’s finally here- Divisional Weekend of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Brock Purdy v GB ($6,500)
Throughout the offseason, there were a number of question marks surrounding Brock Purdy and his role in this San Francisco offense – after all, Purdy’s debut season ended with a UCL injury, casting major doubts on his readiness for week 1 in September, and not to mention this was Mr Irrelevant…a rookie QB taken with the final selection of the draft, thrust into the starter’s role after injuries to former 1st round pick Trey Lance and another man who had also led the 49ers to an NFC Championship game just 12 months earlier, Jimmy Garoppolo. In his sophomore year Brock Purdy answered all those questions, and more, as he led his 49ers team to not only a 3rd consecutive postseason – but the No.1 seed in the NFC and a first round bye following a remarkable 12-5 regular season. Purdy has transformed from Mr. Irrelevant to a near Mr. MVP, finishing the year with 4,280 padding yards (5th), 31 touchdowns (3rd) and only 11 interceptions (T-5th for QBs playing a minimum of 16 games). San Fran have found their franchise quarterback, and a contract extension in the offseason beckons for sure…but before that, Mr. Irrelevant has a Super Bowl to win – starting with a Divisional Round matchup against the Green Bay Packers and their 15th ranked passing defense. Purdy and co. will be as surprised as anyone (myself included) that it is the Pack heading to Levi’s Stadium this weekend and not the Rams or Eagles – but this is playoff football and the time to expect the unexpected. Purdy’s 9.6 yards per attempt led the NFL, and his 69.4% passing completion rate was behind only Dak Prescott (69.5%) on the year…just. The 49ers are a 10 point favourite, at home in the highest O/U on the week at 50.5 – Purdy is priced up as the QB5 on the slate, but he’s my QB1 – don’t sleep on him at only $6500.
Isiah Pacheco @BUF ($6,400)
Show me a running back currently in the NFL that runs harder than the Kansas City Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco…I’ll wait. In the frozen tundra that was Arrowhead Stadium last Saturday night, Pacheco stomped all over the frozen field and all over the hearts of every Dolphins fan, as he exposed Miami’s run defense to be more fragile than the icicles forming on Andy Reid’s moustache. This wasn’t so much a game KC won, more a game that Miami lost…but enough about the Dolphins. After sitting out the Chiefs’ dead rubber week 18 victory over the Chargers, a fully fit Pacheco was given every opportunity to prove he is the lead back for KC…one he grasped with both hands. The sophomore rusher carried the ball 24 times for 89 yards and a score, his 3-yard touchdown in the 4th quarter killing off any hopes Miami had of staging a comeback. The Chiefs now head to upstate New York for Patrick Mahomes’ first ever road game in the playoffs, and whilst the forecast isn’t predicting temperatures will plummet to the feels like horrors of -30°C last weekend – it is projecting more heavy snowfall on Highmark Stadium come kick off. If conditions turn wintry, expect both teams to lean on the run game a little more than usual, and Pacheco to see a similar workload to last weekend. He’s a great volume play at only $6400.
Mike Evans @DET ($7,200)
As a Mike Evans fantasy manager, if I hadn’t watched Tampa Bay’s 32-9 victory over the Eagles last weekend, and had only seen Baker Mayfield’s box score of 337 yards and 3 touchdowns, I would have already have been licking my lips in anticipation to see just what kind of numbers the future Hall of Fame wideout put up on the league worst Philadelphia pass defense. 3 receptions for 48 yards…sorry, what? 3 receptions for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns…was the 1 key on the statisticians’ keyboard broken or something…surely that’s 13 receptions for 148 and 1 right…right!?! Urgh, what a disappointment Evans’ overall fantasy performance was in the Bucs rout of the Eagles on Wild Card Weekend. Everything was aligned for Evans, coming off his 10th consecutive 1,000 receiving yard season, to have a monster fantasy day against an Eagles secondary giving up over 180 yards per game to opposing wideouts. Credit to the Eagles pass defense, they played their part allowing Baker to connect with his wide receivers for 215 of his 337 yards – unfortunately for Evans’ managers, Trey Palmer and David Moor accounted for 122 of those and 2 of Mayfield’s 2 touchdowns. Tampa now travels north to Michigan, preparing to face a Lions team who allowed Matt Stafford to connect with his WRs for 295 yards in their Wild Card win last weekend – let’s hope Evans sees a much larger slice of the pie at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon.
Brandon Aiyuk v GB ($6,900)
Back in week 12, heading into the 49ers divisional clash in Seattle and coming off a 156-yard and 1 touchdown performance against the Bucs, Brandon Aiyuk was priced at $6,800…a full $1,200 more expensive than teammate Deebo Samuel. In the 5 games since San Fran’s 31-13 victory over the Seahawks (we’re not counting week 18 here), Brandon Aiyuk has gone over 100-yards receiving in 3 of them, adding a score in 1 of the 2 contests he failed to eclipse triple digit yardage. In the same time frame fellow wideout Samuel has only 2 100+ yard efforts to his name (albeit he has scored 8 touchdowns to Aiyuk’s 2), and now is priced at $7,700…$900 more than the man with the 7th most receiving yards on the season (1,342 yards). I’ll say now what I said 2 months ago – I want whatever 49ers wideout is more wallet friendly, and against a Packers defense ranked 18th against the position – that would be Brandon Aiyuk this weekend. On the season only Tyreek Hill had more plays of 20+ yards than the 4th year receiver out of Arizona State – his big play ability gives him huge upside in this one.
Isaiah Likely v HOU ($4,700)
The Divisional Round has come just too soon for the Ravens’ franchise tight end Mark Andrews, as Friday’s breaking news suggests he will sit out of Saturday night’s matchup against the Texans. Andrews suffered a significant ankle injury back in week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but has participated fully in each of the Ravens practise sessions so far on the week. Murmurings of Andrews return after a long stint on the IR no doubt played a role in the pricing of Isaiah Likely for Baltimore’s opening game of the pre-season at home to Houston, with the 6’4” sophomore out of Coastal Carolina sitting at a very budget friendly $4,700, placing him as the TE6 on the slate. Likely has filled in admirably in the absence of the veteran Andrews, sitting as the fantasy TE5 since becoming the de facto starter in week 13. His 15.3 yards per catch sit 2nd behind only George Kittle (16.9 YPC) over the period and only rookie sensation has hauled in more touchdowns (6 to Likely’s 5) – the 2022 4th round pick is an essential part of this Ravens pass offense, with only Zay Flowers seeing more looks through the air from Lamar Jackson. The Texans rank 29th against the position, giving Likely a very favourable matchup and a great chance for a big fantasy day – only LaPorta and Kittle are ahead of him for me this weekend.
Baker Mayfield @DET ($6,000)
I feel for Baker Mayfield; history will show that in the Wild Card Weekend of the 2023 season, the Tampa Bay Bucs signal caller was the overall QB3 in fantasy football…but that simply doesn’t do justice to the performance of the former No.1 overall pick against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. His 30.1 fantasy points on DraftKings may have been 3.4 shy of positional leader on the week Josh Allen, the 337 yards he threw for was someway short of Matthew Stafford’s 367-yard effort, and his 16 yards on the ground were only a third of what Dak Prescott put up with his legs, but unlike Stafford and Prescott, Baker actually led his team to victory…comfortably. I wrote last week how the Bucs franchise quarterback (I’m still sticking with it) had thrown for over 300-yards and multiple scores in 2 of his last 4, well the former Sooner made that 3 from 5 and with change to spare in Tampa’s 32-9 demolition of the sputtering Philadelphia Eagles. Mayfield’s 337 passing yards and 3 touchdowns were impressive enough, but once again the born-again passer stayed clean and completed zero interceptions. Baker’s mistake-free approach and big-play ability makes him a safe bet for your fantasy roster, and coming up against the Lions 30th ranked passing defense in this week’s Divisional Round matchup – he is once again a great budget pick at the position to build around.
Justice Hill v HOU ($4,800)
Speaking of justice, if you’re looking for a wallet friendly running back this week, look to Maryland and the M&T Bank Stadium as Justice Hill and the Baltimore Ravens make their postseason debuts on the year against Kings of the AFC South, the Houston Texans. Recommending any rusher in Baltimore is a risky business – despite playing in all 17 games, the team’s lead back Gus Edwards only carried the ball 198 times – 24th most at the position on the year, behind the likes of James Conner, David Montgomery and Kyren Williams, all of whom missed multiple games through injury. With only 84 carries in the regular season Justice Hill saw 50% less opportunities on the ground than his teammate Edwards, and despite rushing for 423 fewer yards and 10 fewer touchdowns – Hill’s usage in the passing game was enough to make him flex-worthy asset for fantasy managers – finishing up as the overall RB44 in PPR formats. Explosive rookie Keaton Mitchell’s season came to an unfortunate end in week 15 due to a horrific knee injury, and veteran plodder Melvin Gordon has been released, leaving only Edwards and Hill to carry the rock. Yes, Lamar Jackson will see plenty of designed run plays, and yes, I am aware the Ravens signed Dalvin Cook – but Hill should see more than enough work to merit his $4,800 price tag. He’s a punt play, but on such a small slate, he may be the contrarian pick you need to cash in GPPs.
Khalil Shakir v KC ($3,800)
In the absence of the Boom-Bust master that is Gabe Davis, sophomore wide receiver Khalil Shakir has been quietly efficient as the No.2 option at the position for Josh Allen. As with many NFL players further down team’s depth charts, Shakir saw plenty of opportunities in week 18, however unlike a number of those backups and 3rd stringers, Shakir was playing in a game that matters – as the Bills left Miami with not only a 21-14 victory, but the AFC East title in the process. Shakir hauled in all 6 of his targets for 105 yards that afternoon, his 2nd time this season he has gone into triple digit receiving yards. With Davis still out, and the emergence of rookie tight end Dalton Kinkaid, Shakir is the clear third read for the No.1 QB in the league – but with Stefon Diggs suffering from a foot injury throughout the week and form coming into this game that’s colder than an Orchard Park winter – there should be plenty of opportunities for the former Boise State Bronco when the Chiefs come to town. Shakirk had the biggest receiving play of the regular season – an 81 yard touchdown reception against the New York Jets back in week 11, he’s got big play ability and could be a huge value at only $3800.
Buffalo Bills v KC ($2,800)
Kansas City may have disposed of the Dolphins last weekend, but let’s be honest…who hasn’t in recent weeks. Patrick Mahomes and co. will face an entirely different proposition in the Divisional Round as they travel to upstate New York to take on Josh Allen and the No.2 seed Buffalo Bills. The trip to Highmark will be Mahomes’ first ever career road game in the postseason (excluding Super Bowls of course), but with a regular season record of 6-2 on the road, the Chiefs will be confident and looking for revenge after a week 14 loss to this Bills team at Arrowhead. Buffalo enters the week with a defense that ranks 8th against wideouts, 6th against quarterbacks and 4th against tight ends…and despite their 16th ranked rush defense, they only gave up a total of 75 yards on the ground to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined last weekend. It can be risky betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs, but something still isn’t quite right with this KC offense and the Bills could exploit their frailties in the sub-zero temperature in Orchard Park on Sunday.
Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey & Brandon Aiyuk ($22,200)
Bring back Aaron Jones ($6,700)
I’ve already planted my flag in the Brock Purdy QB1 narrative this week, and highlighted why I think at a full $800 cheaper than Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk is the 49ers receiver to roster this week. As attractive as the Packers’ 15th ranked passing defense is – giving up an average of 223 passing yards through the air each week – their rush defense is even worse. Green Bay is allowing almost 125 yards on the ground to opposing backs this year…and now they get to face a man who put up almost 300 yards more on the season than any other rusher, Christian McCaffrey. Despite holding Tony Pollard to only 56 yards on the ground last weekend, CMC should feast at home going up against this Green Bay D-Line. If you’re playing in Cash Games, it’s a big risk not rostering McCaffrey – it’s a pricey stack but one I project to pay off in a big way.
Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans & Cade Otton ($16,700)
Bring back Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200)
If, like me, you prefer your stack to put up big points but with little investment, then look to the NFC Divisional matchup at Ford Field as Tampa Bay heads to the Motor City to face the Lions, as they host back-to-back playoff games for the first time in franchise history. Detroit will make it 3-in-a-row should they defeat the Bucs on Sunday and the 49ers lose to Green Bay – however I don’t see the Packers overcoming San Francisco…nor do I see Jared Goff and co emerging victorious against the NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The conservative, yet fantasy friendly style of Baker Mayfield combined with a bounce-back game for Mike Evans should provide an excellent foundation for your rosters – adding in sophomore tight end Cade Otton, who had a career high in targets, receptions and yards last weekend (8 catches for 89 yards on 11 looks) gives a solid 3-pack of players for only $16,700, freeing up plenty budget to add CMC and/or Amon-Ra St. Brown.
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Image Credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports
