The 2023 NFL Draft has come and gone, now we have the fund of rookie outlooks- here is the QB edition. By now most of us are familiar with a good percentage of the rookie class and now we must do our best to combat rookie fever in an attempt to determine where, if at all the 2023 rookies should be drafted in redraft leagues. This article aims to assess both dynasty and redraft outlooks for the 2023 crop of rookies.
For each position, I will be providing a custom graphic to illustrate each players landing spot and draft capital, but the complete list of players drafted can be found here. You can find individual rookie profiles here written by the KFS team. Without further delay, let’s take a look at the top rookies of this class.
Bryce Young (CAR)
The outlook here is an obvious one. Young was selected first overall in the NFL Draft and the Panthers believe he is their franchise quarterback. His size is a cause for concern but you simply have to bank on draft capital here.
Young is going off the board as QB14 in superflex drafts and is a top three superflex rookie pick and will prove to be a value if he hits. He shouldn’t be drafted as a top-ten quarterback currently but once you are outside of that range, draft him confidently in dynasty.
He currently ranks as QB14 in my dynasty rankings and is undervalued at this price point
His redraft outlook is a bit cloudier. Young checks in as QB24 in redraft ADP and is being viewed as a low-end QB2. Rookie quarterbacks on poor offences don’t typically produce great fantasy quarterbacks and I expect nothing different here.
Young should eventually be a great asset, but it’s best to steer clear of him if you can for redraft. He currently ranks as QB29 in my redraft rankings and is unlikely to provide much production as a rookie.
C.J. Stroud (HOU)
The dynasty outlook for Stroud is much like the outlook for Young. He has the draft capital to be considered a franchise quarterback. He is currently going off the board as QB12 in dynasty startup ADP and is a top-three superflex rookie pick.
Stroud is a master of accuracy and should prove to be a consistent fantasy asset but he doesn’t have the same ceiling as Young. I expect him to settle in as a yearly QB2 but should still be drafted with confidence in superflex startup drafts.
He currently ranks as QB12 in my dynasty rankings and is currently appropriately valued at this price point.
While I do expect Stroud to settle in as an eventual QB2 and I think the dynasty value will end up being less than that of Young, I prefer Stroud this season in Redraft.
While Stroud does not have the ceiling of Young his skillset and accuracy should allow him to transition to the NFL level in a much speedier fashion. I expect him to be the most productive rookie quarterback in year one, although that is not how I expect their careers to play out.
He currently ranks as QB23 in my redraft rankings and should immediately step into top 20 production.
Anthony Richardson (IND)
Perhaps the most polarizing of the rookie quarterbacks, Richardson has a massive range of outcomes. My perception of him will largely change based on the format I play in for my dynasty league.
In your standard 1QB league, he should be drafted as the first quarterback off the board as his immense risk is mitigated by the readily available backup quarterbacks on the waiver wire, it’s simply a free swing at a home run.
with regard to superflex leagues, however, I would be drafting him behind both Young and Stroud as he has easily the highest bust rate of the three and you can’t afford to miss on quarterback picks.
He is going off the board as QB15 and sits as QB11 in my dynasty rankings, but as I said before, his value is determined by your league format and your risk tolerance.
His redraft value is a mystery. It’s unknown if he will be the Colts’ starter in week one, although he should be and even if he does start early.
Richardson is very raw and will require some seasoning. The rookie will undoubtedly experience some growing pains and rough outings in 2023 but could be saved by a rushing floor that will provide some safety and should allow him to avoid being a total bust even if everything goes wrong.
He is being drafted as QB23 in Redraft and sits as QB20 in my redraft rankings. Richardson may not be a home run in his rookie season, but his rushing totals should make him startable for those teams that miss out on the early quarterbacks.
This would be my choice of the top six quarterbacks for Redraft purposes in 2023.
Will Levis (TEN)
This is one of my favourite targets in rookie drafts if I miss out on the early quarterbacks. He is going off the board well behind the other three as QB25 and can be had in the second round of rookie drafts.
Levis is not without his flaws and will have to improve on his accuracy, but he is built like the Prototypical Pocket Passer and if he is able to refine his raw skillset he could easily be a franchise quarterback for years to come.
He shouldn’t be expected to carry your team in the near future, but if the 50/50 chance lands on his side, you could have a top-ten quarterback for nothing.
The polarizing prospect currently ranks as QB28 in my dynasty rankings, which reflects that he has just as much upside as the top three quarterbacks in this class but comes at half the cost.
Conversely, he is a total avoid for me in Redraft. Ryan Tannehill projects to be the Titans starter for most of, if not all of the 2023 season and even if he finds his way into the starting lineup.
He is going to struggle until he finds his footing and will be playing on a terrible offence that needs to start rebuilding and let their young talent run with it. Levis is a long-term project at best, leave him on the waiver wire in Redraft unless he gives you a reason to pick him up later in the season. He currently sits as QB27 in my redraft rankings.
Hendon Hooker (DET)
This may be one of the best values in superflex dynasty drafts right now. Hooker’s injury has helped to suppress his ADP to the point he can be had as QB32 in startup drafts, that’s a steal of a deal for a quarterback who would be in the conversation with the elites of this class had he stayed healthy.
Hooker checks in as QB33 in my dynasty rankings but could be a massive value. Hooker is in the best possible situation, he is going to get to redshirt as a rookie allowing him to heal up and learn behind a veteran.
In the long run, this could prove to be insanely valuable in his development. There may not be a better taxi squad stash in all of dynasty football than this.
Nothing to see here. As I said above, he will be redshirting for his rookie year and will see little to no action in 2023. He could very easily have a bright future in the NFL, but it won’t begin to brighten up until at least 2024.
He ranks as QB60 in my redraft rankings and I don’t imagine we will see him throw more than a handful of passes.
Jake Haener (NO)
I liked Haener’s profile and athleticism coming into the 2023 NFL Draft, but a New Orleans landing spot is not ideal. Fresh off signing Derek Carr there appears to be nothing left here besides a long-term backup opportunity in the Big Easy.
Haener profiles to be a likely backup at the NFL level and it would appear that is how the first few years of his career will play out. The Saints drafted Ian Book a few years ago and that didn’t work out in a way that would be encouraging for Haener.
He is currently going undrafted in startup drafts and is QB33 in my dynasty rankings, there is little to see here unless something changes significantly in his favour.
There is little hope of Haener returning any significant long-term value in dynasty and there is even less hope of him returning any value at all in Redraft.
Outside of a catastrophic injury to Derek Carr, Haener does not need to even be on your radar for the 2023 Redraft leagues. He is QB60 in my redraft rankings behind even Hooker who I anticipate to redshirt.
Image Credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports