It’s finally here- the Thanksgiving slate of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Dak Prescott – $6,800 (QB, DAL)
Thanksgiving is upon us, and with it the traditional 3-game slate that dominates our screens for some 11 hours on the fourth Thursday of November each year. Hand in hand with the yearly day of thanks and gratitude is the proceeding day of retail madness, and it appears as if DraftKings have been ever so kind to give us an early Black Friday bargain in the form of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. At only $6800 and facing off against the absolute worst passing defense in the National Football League, Dak will be almost universally rostered across the board by fantasy managers on the slate. There are pivot plays to create more contrarian lineups, but let’s not get too cute – this is a defensive unit that just gave up 246 yards and 3 touchdowns to Tommy DeVito in a 31-19 loss to the Giants. Turkey isn’t the only thing Dak will be feasting on this Thursday, and we should all be thankful for the bounty of fantasy points the Cowboys passing offense are going to provide for us in the afternoon game.
David Montgomery – $6,300 (RB, DET)
Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs continues to grab fantasy headlines with his recent explosive performances for the Lions, with the 12th overall pick out of Alabama ranking as the overall RB1 from week 7 onwards. Gibbs started the season slow but has quickly settled into his role in the No.2 ranked offense in the league. The thing is…this is still David Montgomery’s backfield, and the former Bear will continue to see an increased role in this Lions offense each week he is further removed from the rib injury that saw him miss 2 games in weeks 7 and 8. Monty was given 60% of the rushing opportunities in last week’s victory over Chicago, up from only 43% in week 10. Detroit Head Coach Dan Campbell has made it clear Montgomery is his lead back, and at $500 cheaper on the slate than teammate Gibbs, the veteran gets the nod for me this week.
CeeDee Lamb – $8,700 (WR, DAL)
Is CeeDee Lamb the best wide receiver in football at the moment? Personally, I think Lamb, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill can all lay claims to the title…but as a totally unbiased Dolphins fan, I think Tyreek takes top spot. That said, CeeDee Lamb should, nae will, finish as the WR1 in fantasy this week as the superstar pass catcher gets to take on the aforementioned Washington Commanders and their NCAA level pass defense. Last week was a down game for Lamb and he still finished with 16.5 fantasy points. Nobody in football has more targets, yards ro touchdowns at the position since week 7 than the Cowboys No.88; sure he’s $8700 and a whopping $1700 more expensive than the 3rd WR on the slate in Brandon Aiyuk – but everything is aligning for Lamb this week; perfect matchup, divisional opponent, home/dome game and Prime Time…set it and forget it.
Deebo Samuel – $5,900 (WR, SF)
Deebo has yet to deliver a true slatebreaking performance since his return in week 9, but that could be about to change as the 49ers travel to Seattle in the late game this Thanksgiving. By the time Deebo, Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy take the field, most of us will be almost too full to function and all but ready to fall asleep on the coach were it not for this mouth watering NFC East clash on our televisions. It may be late on the biggest eating day of the year, but Deebo Samuel will be the hungriest man inside Lumen Field after being starved of a touchdown last week, as messrs Aiyuk, Kittle and McCaffrey all caught scores from Mr Irrelevant in the 49ers win over Tampa. This contest may have the lowest O/U on the day, but it also has the lowest spread with San Francisco being 7 point road favourites on Turkey Day. Seattle looks set to be without lead rusher Ken Walker so expect Geno to take to the air quickly and often against a beatable 49ers secondary. I anticipate this one hitting the over, and with plenty of fantasy points to go around, Deebo will be as full as the rest of us come bed time – at $1100 cheaper than Aiyuk, he is the 49ers pass catcher I want to roster here.
Jake Ferguson – $3,900 (TE, DAL)
On a slate which sees George Kittle priced at $6000 and rookie Sam LaPorta at a few bills less at $5200, I will be fading to the 3rd highest priced option and to the tight end with arguably the best matchup of any on the day…Dallas’ Jake Ferguson. Ferg had a down week last week so may be a fade for some fantasy managers, his disappointing output primarily a result of Dak Prescott’s weekly TE touchdown going to Luke Schoonmaker and not the sophomore 4th rounder. Ferguson remains the most targeted player on the Cowboys after CeeDee Lamb, and boasts the 2nd highest reception total on the roster outside of No.88. On a small slate where budget may limit your options to rostering either a stud WR or a stud TE, select Ferguson alongside a Lamb or Amon-Ra St. Brown and give yourself a chance of having a stud at both positions.
Jordan Love – $5,500 (QB, GB)
If Dak Prescott is that brand new 50” 4K HDTV you’ve been promising yourself in the Black Friday Sale, consider Jordan Love a mid-range air fryer…you bought into the hype, tried it a few times, and then went back to more reliable methods. The last thing you need on your roster is another air fryer/meddling quarterback, but this one is in the SALE and it gets to take on the Detroit Lions! It is becoming almost as much of a tradition for the Lions to be involved in high-scoring shootouts as it is for them to play on Thanksgiving, with 50% of their matchups eclipsing the 50 total points mark. The Packers young QB has been sneaky good for fantasy this year averaging 233 passing yards per game, adding nearly 20 more on the ground each week. Last time out Love torched the Chargers for 322 yards and 2 scores in Green Bay’s 23-20 victory. Look to Love to keep it going in Motor City this holiday season.
Zach Charbonnet – $5,300 (RB, SEA)
If you’ve followed my Bargains column all season, you will be oh so familiar with my love of Seattle’s rookie running back Zach Charbonnet. We’ve seen the 2nd round pick slowly eat into Ken Walker’s workload with the UCLA alum boasting over 50% of the snaps in the Seahawks last 3 contests. I’ve been proclaiming it’s Charbonnet Season for weeks now, and after an unfortunate injury to KW3 in the Seahawks disappointing defeat to the Rams…it may actually be happening. Charbonnet is averaging 4.9 yards per carry on his 53 attempts this season, putting him 7th in efficiency for backs who have received 50 or more carries. The matchup isn’t attractive, the 49ers ranks 9th against the run and recently held Travis Etienne to a mere 36 yards on the ground in week 10. There is hope for Charbonnet due to his usage in the passing game; 11 targets in his last 2 contests – and as Rachaad White proved last weekend, pass catching backs can have fantasy success against this otherwise stout run defense. At $5300, Charbonnet is a must-add to your roster on the slate.
Jayden Reed – $4,200 (WR, GB)
Another 2nd round rookie selection who continues to impress is a player taken just 2 picks ahead of the above mentioned Zach Charbonnet; Green Bay wide receiver Jayden Reed. The former Michigan State Spartan has logged double digit fantasy numbers in 4 of his last 5 outings; a respectable return for fantasy managers’ sub-$4000 investment. Week 11 saw Reed jointly lead the team in targets as the Packers edged out the Chargers at Lambeau. His 6 targets tied fellow wideout Romeo Doubs and tight end Luke Musgrave, and in the process made him the most targeted player on the team since week 9, seeing a total of 14 looks over the 3 game spell . With Musgrave being placed on IR yesterday there figures to be even more targets coming Reed’s way, and with Aaron Jones also missing out this week, expect to see Reed assist A.J. Dillon out of the backfield as he did last week. Reed has a chance to put up numbers through the air and on the ground, making him a solid choice at only $4200.
Tucker Kraft – $2,500 (TE, GB)
2023 has surprisingly been the year of the rookie tight end; with Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, and to an extent, Luke Musgrave all providing fantasy value for large parts of the season. Musgrave, Green Bay’s 2nd round pick, suffered an abdominal injury in the Pack’s week 11 win over the Chargers and has been placed on Injured Reserve; in his absence the team’s 3rd round pick from the same draft appears set to take over his role. Tucker Kraft was selected 36 spots behind his fellow tight end and despite the relatively high draft capital, has yet to feature in any notable way in his rookie campaign. Kraft caught both of his targets for 32 yards last weekend and could see a larger involvement in the passing game due to Musgrave’s absence. Jordan Love has targeted the tight end on 18% of his attempts this season – look to Kraft to potentially provide sneaky value in the early game.
Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard & CeeDee Lamb ($22,000)
Bring back Terry McLaurin ($5,400)
I have already outlined the fragilities of the Commanders pass defense – they rank 31st in passing yards allowed to opposing QBs and dead last in touchdowns, with 24 on the season so far. With Tony Pollard finally showing signs of life against Carolina last week, this entire Cowboys offense is in line to host a bumper Thanksgiving celebration with a full spread of fantasy points ousting turkey as the main entree for Dak and co.
Jordan Love, AJ Dillon & Jayden Reed ($15,100)
Bring back Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500)
If you’re looking to stack on a budget, look no further than Jordan Love and the Green Bay pass-catchers as they make the relatively short hop across Lake Michigan to take on the Lions in Detroit. Jared Goff and his Lions are the 2nd most potent offense in the NFL, behind only Mike McDaniel’s record breaking charges in Miami; so expect the Pack to take to the air in an attempt to keep up with the home team in the first game of the day. Goff and co will look to put this one away early in an attempt to get their feet up for the holidays, if the Lions can put some daylight between themselves and their divisional rivals, expect Love and Reed to stuff their stat-lines like a Thanksgiving turkey in a race to catch up.
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Image Credit: Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports
