2023 Week 1 DraftKings Slate-Breakers

Justin Herbert v MIA ($6,900)

This offseason I’ve been loving the potential of Herbert for fantasy. Last season he was forced to play the majority of the season with an injury, which isn’t the case now. With a likely upgrade in playcaller too, with Kellen Moore calling the shots, Herbert is in a great position to take advantage of this Dolphins secondary.

This game is expected to be the highest-scoring game on the slate, which could push up his ownership. But I’m honestly not overly worried about that with his floor and upside. Oh, and lastly, he actually seems to have a fully fit team (at the moment).

Geno Smith v LAR ($6,100)

Smith was great last season, and there is little reason to think he won’t be good this year. All that happened over the offseason for Seattle is adding offensive talent. The Rams secondary lost their most talented back, and Smith was able to carve them up last season when they had him. This could be a big game for Smith and his receivers through the air.

Baker Mayfield @MIN ($4,900)

Mayfield is not Tom Brady. But, he has all of the weapons that Brady did. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both going to be available in this one, and then we have promising second-year RB Rachaad White. Mayfield’s cost is minimal- meaning that he doesn’t need to do too much to hit value. I’m not going to go crazy with exposure to him, but you can’t discount him completely.

Also consider Russell Wilson v LV ($5,900), Anthony Richardson v JAX ($5,600) & Derek Carr v TEN ($5,200) 

J.K. Dobbins v HOU ($6,600)

The Texans were the worst team at defending the run last season, and while they have made some improvements I don’t expect a huge step change on defense. While alot of attention this offseason has been on the Ravens making a change to their offense and becoming more passing, this is a run-heavy offense. With Baltimore being a heavy home favorite, that should lead to plenty of touches for Dobbins out of the backfield.

Aaron Jones @CHI ($6,300)

Jones is the veteran in the Packers offense, and should lead this backfield (and potentially receivers). With Jordan Love set to start, it’s likely that the coaching staff rely on the rushing attack to help take the pressure off of him. The Bears struggled to defend against RBs last season, and there isn’t much reason to think that they won’t struggle here. The price also isn’t too much considering this floor, and potential ceiling (his ceiling is higher with WRs Christian Waston and Romeo Doubs with questionable status).

Raheem Mostert @LAC ($5,400)

The Dolphins backfield is normally a little frustrating to piece together, but with Jeff Wilson on IR it’s easier to have faith in it.The Chargers defensive line has long struggled to stop the run, and Mostert is the type of back that can take advantage of that. With this game likely to have plenty of points in it too, Mostert is inline for plenty of carries. If he falls into the endzone, he smashes value. The price is great too, allowing you to load up on elite WR talent.

Deon Jackson v JAX ($4,100)

This is the type of pricing you get with Week 1. Jackson looks set to be the lead back for the Colts to start the season with Jonathan Taylor on PUP and backup Zack Moss suffering with an injury. This might not be a pretty game for the Colts, but when Jackson was given the opportunity last year he was effective for fantasy. In this game last year he has 42 yards on the ground, and a TD and 10 receptions for 79 yards through the air. He has to do next to nothing to hit value in this one at the price.

Also consider Miles Sanders @ATL ($5,600), Rachaad White @MIN ($5,500), Khalil Herbert v GB ($5,300) & Brian Robinson v ARI ($5,100)

Justin Jefferson v TB ($8,800)

Week 1 pricing tends to allow you to grab a few of the top options, and this season is no different. That brings Jefferson very much into the player pool. Jefferson is expected to do big things this season after an impressive season last year. The Vikings offense flows through Jefferson, and was among the most pass-happy last season. Against a middling secondary, and one that could see alot of action on the field this week, Jefferson should carve up.

Tyreek Hill @LAC ($8,200)

Hill is one of the best receivers in the league, able to stretch any defense with his speed and agility. This game should have a high game total (the highest on the slate). The Chargers secondary didn’t give up that much through the air last year, but that was partly misleading as they were just routed on the ground. Hill should be able to score well against this secondary.

Keenan Allen v MIA ($7,300)

Staying in the same game, it’s hard to not like Allen. He has a strong relationship with QB Justin Herbert, and produces effectively out of the slot. The Miami secondary are going to struggle to deal with a (hopefully) fit Allen and the PPR scoring on DraftKings gives him a solid floor.

Mike Evans @MIN ($6,300)

All offseason I’ve been in on Evans as a value in drafts, and I feel I need to back that with his selection in Week 1. Do I expect Evans to take a step back from the years he was playing with Tom Brady? Yes. But there seems to be a huge over-reaction to catching passes from Baker Mayfield. That is going to lead to a lower ownership number than he has had in recent times. The Vikings offense are going to be putting up points, so the Bucs will need to throw the ball to stay in this contest

Drake London v CAR ($5,400)

London had some moments of brilliance in his rookie season, but struggled for consistency in this run-first offense. But, the Panthers secondary is really one that can be targetted, with no one really able to deal with the size and speed combination of London. With a nice mid-price on the slate, he is a great value on the slate.

Marvin Mims v LV ($3,000)

Mims feels like a risky play. Certainly, I wouldn’t typically say to start a rookie receiver in the first game of the season. But, in this case it’s hard to pass up. Denver looks like they are going to need to put him straight into their starting lineup, with Jerry Jeudy unlikely to play and Tim Patrick ruled out of the season. This is a nice matchup, and Mims doesn’t need to do too much to hit value here.

Also consider Calvin Ridley @IND ($6,500), Mike Williams v MIA ($5,700), Deebo Samuel @PIT ($5,500) & Jahan Dotson v ARI ($5,000)

Tyler Higbee @SEA ($4,800)

The Rams offense is starting out the season with quite an empty cupboard. One of the most reliable receivers on the team is Higbee, who had a few decent performances last year for fantasy. With Kupp out of the lineup, there are plenty of targets available in this offense that is going to need to pass the ball to have any chance of getting a result here.

Juwan Johnson v TEN ($3,900)

Johnson has the potential to break this slate open at this price. He has shown his ability to score big for fantasy in previous seasons, and this year he comes into an offense led by a TE-friendly Derek Carr as well as an elite TE coach. With the other elite TEs on the slate in various categories on the injury report, Johnson is a nice punt option for GPPs.

Also consider Kyle Pitts v CAR ($4,500), Logan Thomas v ARI ($3,200) & Hayden Hurst @ATL ($3,000) 

Seattle Seahawks v LAR ($3,300)

The Rams are really not the team they were just a few seasons ago. A poor offensive line failing to protect their QB, or create gaps for their backfield. Now with Cooper Kupp ruled out, this Rams offense really seems toothless. Playing at home, the Seahawks are a nice play this week.

Washington Commanders v ARI ($2,800)

The Commanders are going to be a popular play this week. I mean- what’s not to like? Playing at home, against a QB that hasn’t started that many games (and when he has he has struggled), and a poor offense. It’s a play with high ownership, but hard to overlook.