Welcome to Week 1 of the 2023 season, and the first in our Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em series. This is where it all begins. It’s a chance to get off on the right foot and begin undefeated. As such these decisions are now more fun than ever.
As always, if you are struggling with a decision you can checkout our rankings for each Week. Or, if you want a more personal touch, reach out on social media. You can find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Or jump into our Discord server. All stats refer to 1/2 PPR, 6 point per passing touchdown leagues. The number in brackets next to an opponent is that teams rank against the position. Rank 1 is the best possible matchup, Rank 32 is the worst. Follow me on Twitter @FFMadScientist
Start’Em
Jared Goff, Lions v KC (3)
The Lions and Chiefs are going to be an opening night shootout, get onboard with the cheaper of the two quarterbacks. The Chiefs allowed 21.90 PPG to quarterbacks and the Lion’s offence is more than potent enough for Goff to rack up 20-25 points. Start him and hope the Lions can hang with the Chiefs long enough to set up a barn burner.
Derek Carr, Saints v TEN (4)
A new team and a new identity for Carr. While he has always just been a guy at quarterback, he gets a favorable matchup in week one. The Titans allowed 21.53 PPG last season and Carr should be able to connect with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas enough to put up a minimum of 20 points. The suspension of Alvin Kamara may cap his upside, but he has more than enough weapons to be a low-end QB1.
Russell Wilson, Broncos v LV (7)
Russell Wilson is the scariest addition to the list. After a disastrous first season with Denver, he looks to get back on track with a matchup against a Raiders defense that allowed 20.65 PPG to the quarterback in 2022. This matchup should go a long way to determining if Wilson will see a career resurgence or if he is washed up.
Sit ‘Em
Mac Jones, Patriots v NYJ (29)
Jones was so bad in 2022 that he was briefly replaced by Bailey Zappe. The starting job is his again, but the outlook doesn’t look any more promising than in 2022.He gets a Jets defense in week one that allowed 14.65 PPG to the quarterback last season and will make life tough on him once again.
Kenny Pickett, Steelers v SF (27)
I have my spot reserved on the Kenny Pickett hype train, but it’s going to be a rough start to the ride in week one. The 49ers defense wallowed 15.10 PPG to quarterbacks in 2022 and figure to make life difficult on the Steelers. The theme of this article is likely to be “Avoid all Steelers”.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders, Steelers v DEN (28)
A change of scenery for Jimmy G is going to get off to a bumpy start. The Bronco’s defense is stingy and allowed only 15.00 PPG to quarterbacks last season. Garoppolo will have arguably the worst weapons of his career and will have to prove he is more than just a game manager. Sit him unless you are desperate at QB2.
Start ‘Em
JK Dobbins, Ravens v HOU (1)
Dobbins looks to be fully healthy for the first time in a long time. His reward for getting healthy is a reward with the Holy Grail of running back matchups. The Texans allowed 25.71 PPG to running backs in 2022 and would need to be massively improved to not be a cupcake matchup. Dobbins is going to go nuclear in his return to healthy play and could be the RB1 overall in week one.
Aaron Jones, Packers v CHI (2)
Reports of Aaron Jones’ downfall have been greatly exaggerated. He may be getting up there in age, but the lone veteran on a team starting a rookie quarterback figures to be a check-down machine. The Bears allowed 22.65 PPG to running backs last year and much like Dobbins, Jones could be the week one RB1 overall if the Packers can move the ball. The main difference between Jones and Dobbins is the lower ceiling for Jones on a limited offense.
Cam Akers, Rams v SEA (3)
From a healthy scratch last season to a must start in week one, it’s been a whirlwind for Cam Akers. Akers faces a Seahawks defense that allows 21.33 PPG to running backs and with Cooper Kupp out for week one, he may be the focal point of this offence. Like Jones, his ceiling is capped by an inept offense, but he should still see enough work to be a solid RB1 option.
Sit ‘Em
Najee Harris, Steelers v SF (32)
Harris is a study in inefficiency. He has been a useable fantasy asset for two years due solely to massive volume. That volume figures to take a large hit in 2023 with Jaylen Warren slated to take on a bigger role. In week one he faces off with a 49ers defense that is an avoid across the board. The 49ers allowed 10.80 PPG to running backs in 2022 and even with the Steelers projected to be much improved, this is going to be tough sledding.
James Conner, Cardinals v WSH (28)
Conner is the main man in the Arizona backfield. There is simply nobody else. Despite Conner being the only show in town, this offense is going to be a disaster without Kyler Murray. Even if Conner gets 80% of the running back touches, it’s going to be tough to score fantasy points when your team gets shutout. Conner is tempting as one of the NFLs lone bell cows, but a bad matchup and a bad offence is not a formula for success. Sit him if you can afford to and avoid the Commanders who allowed only 13.47 PPG to running backs in 2022.
Jamaal Williams, Saints, v TEN (30)
Alvin Kamara is suspended and rookie Kendre Miller could miss several weeks with a hamstring injury. That could leave Williams as the only back in town. Much like Conner, he gets a bad matchup, and even with a less inept offence, it could be a rough week one for Williams. The Titans allowed a mere 11.59 PPG to running backs last season and will limit Williams.
Start ’em
Skyy Moore, Chiefs v DET (2)
Moore is a prime matchup, in a risky situation. The Lions gave up 24.06 PPG to receivers last season but with no defined pecking order in the receiving corps it could be tough to predict which one to start. I chose Skyy Moore, but if you have a strong preference about another Chiefs receiver, feel free to roll with them instead. He is a risky home run swing in week one against a wonderful matchup.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers v MIN (3)
With the retired of Tom Brady, everyone has written of the Tampa Bay receivers, this makes Godwin a huge value. IN week one he faces Vikings defense that allowed 23.67 PPG to receivers in 2022. The Vikings will score, so if Baker Mayfield can find a way to keep the Buccaneers in this game, there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points. He is a safe WR2 in week one.
Drake London, Falcons v CAR (4)
The Falcons are an enigma. They are a low pass volume offence, with three big mouths to feed. Which of those mouths eats in week one is anything but certain. My bet against a Panthers defense that allowed 23.41 PPG to receivers in 2022 is Drake London. London was elite by metrics in 2022 and if Desmond Ridder is able to play at a level with any degree of competency, London will get off to a hot start. He’s a high-end WR2 in week one.
Sit ’em
Rashod Bateman, Ravens v HOU (30)
Bateman’s role in the receiving corps is unsettled and the Ravens are facing a Texans offense that was great against receivers in 2022, mainly because their run defense was so bad no one needed to throw against them. This figures to be a great game for the Ravens rushers, but avoid the cluster of receivers in week one, they are all Hail Mary WR3s.
Van Jefferson, Rams v SEA (29)
Jefferson (and Puka Nacua) are both likely to be hot waiver adds in week one with Cooper Kupp sidelined. That’s going to backfire in a big way. The Seahawks allowed 17.00 PPG to receivers last season and even with a beat up secondary they are going to make life difficult for whoever turns out to be the Ram’s WR1. Bench all Ram’s pass-catchers in week one.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE v PHI (27)
Ambiguous backfields may be great bets for running back value, it is not so for receiver value. Whether is be Smith-Schuster, Parker or some other random receiver, this low pass volume offense figures to be a mess. With a week one matchup against the Eagles who allowed 17.60 PPG to receivers in 2022, it’s best not to rely on any of these risky options with little upside.
Start ‘Em
Logan Thomas, Commanders v ARI (1)
Yes, Logan Thomas is still in the NFL, I think. In week one he gets a Cardinals defense that has been ridiculously bad against tight ends, allowing 10.35 PPG. This is not a slam dunk, he has the ability to get injured on any given play. If he does play and stay healthy, he’s a solid streamer at the position. Just don’t play him over any solid options. He is an emergency TE2 with a prime matchup only.
Tyler Higbee, Rams v SEA (2)
Higbee is the best tight end stream of week one, assuming he was available in your league. The Seahawks are another historically bad defense against tight ends as they allowed 10.22 PPG to tight ends last season. The Rams are without Cooper Kupp, facing a Seahawks defense that is great against receivers. This game may turn out to be nothing more than Higbee and Cam Akers for much of the game. In week one, expect the best Rams pass-catcher to be Higbee. He’s a mid-range TE1.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys v NYG (5)
Ferguson has been undervalued all offseason with all the options the Cowboys have at tight end. In week on he faces a Giants defense that allowed 8.84 PPG. While that number may not seem like a lot, it’s basically a low-end TE1, which is what I expect Ferguson to be in week one. Dak Prescott has rushed less each season and has always shown an affinity to target the tight end position, with Dalton Schultz no longer on the team, look for Ferguson to get off to a great start.
Sit ’em
Chogoziem Okonkwo, Titans v NO (31)
Okonkwo was one of the hot sleeper names of the offseason. That heat had some cold water splashed on it when DeAndre Hopkins joined Tennessee. A part-time tight end on a low pass volume offence is bad enough, but add in a matchup with a Saints defense that allowed only 3.82 PPG to tight ends last season is a trio of terrible circumstances. Okonkwo may be an exciting young prospect, but don’t start him in week one.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers v SF (30)
Let’s continue on with my theme, sit all Steelers in week one. Pat Freiermuth is no exception. He should see decent enough volume to not totally tank your team, but against a 49ers defense that allowed 4.50 PPG to tight ends last season, he will be nothing more than a borderline TE1/2. There will be brighter days ahead for this offence, but week one will not be one of them. This is a great spot to stream Tyler Higbee instead.
Dalton Schultz, Texans v BAL (27)
Schultz was a volume monster in 2022 with the Cowboys. It’s a new year and a new team though and the Texans offence is nowhere near as potent. They face the Ravens in week one, whose defense allowed a miniscule 4.89 PPG to tight ends last year. Schultz could once again be the King of tight end volume, but on a bad offence with a rookie quarterback, that volume will not translate nearly as well.
Start ‘Em
Baltimore Ravens DST v HOU (1)
The Raven’s punishing defense starts the season off in a matchup with a bad offence that allowed opposing DSTs to score 14.53 PPG in 2022. Add in a rookie quarterback making his first start surrounded by young weapons and this is a formula for a buffet of turnovers. The Raven’s defense may outscore the Texans offence in week one. Start them as the DST1 in week one. This matchup is perfect.
Seattle Seahawks DST v LAR (2)
The Seahawks DST faces of with the Rams who allowed 13.49 PPG to DSTs last year. They will be a Rams team without star receiver Cooper Kupp. The Rams are going to struggle mightily to move the ball with any level of efficiency and the Seahawks will reap the rewards. This wont be the turnover fest that the Texans will have, it will just be a bad offensive output by Los Angeles. The Rams gave up 13.49 PPG to opposing DSTs and are a great week one matchup. Consider Seattle a top-five option.
Jacksonville Jaguars DST v IND (3)
Jacksonville’s DST gets the same week one fate as the Ravens. A prime spot against a bad offence starting a rookie quarterback. The lone difference here is the rushing upside of Anthony Richardson makes him slightly more dangerous for the opposing DST. Indy allowed 13.33 PPG to DSTs last season and make the Colts an easy DST1 start in week one.
Sit ‘Em
Detroit Lions DST v KC (1)
The Lions are going to have a week one shootout, at best. The alternative is that they get blown out by the Chiefs. Either way you slice it, they are going to give up some points. The Chiefs gave up an insanely low 3.85 PPG to DSTs last season and are a must-avoid for any fantasy football DST. The Lions may be a preseason Cinderella pick, but let Cinderella stay home in week one. The Chiefs match up will be an avoid all season long.
New England Patriots DST v PHI (31)
The Patriots were a prime DST target in fantasy drafts, and for managers who drafted them it’s going to be disappointing when you see their week one matchup. The Eagles allowed 5.70 PPG to opposing DSTs in 2022 and are one of three must-avoid teams for your DST matchups. The only hope for managers with New England is to start them if you have to and pray the Eagles are nursing a sever Super Bowl hangover.
New York Jets DST v BUF (30)
Another draft DST darling is the Jets, and just like with the Patriots, managers who reached for them are likely to be disappointed in week one. The final must-avoid team for DSTs is the Bills who allowed 6.43 PPG last season. Not only is it going to be a rough week one for AFC East DSTs, it could be a rough season. Hopefully you were able to avoid these teams in your drafts.
Start ‘Em
Chase McLaughlin, Buccaneers v MIN (1)
McLaughlin has the benefit of being on a Buccaneers team that may seen many stalled offensive drives, putting him in prime position for multiple field goals. He faces a Vikings team that allowed a whopping 8.89 PPG to kickers last year and this will be no different. The only risk here is if the Tampa Bay offence is so bad that it can’t get into field goal range.
Daniel Carlson, Raiders v DEN (2)
Another kicker who could see a field goal fest because of a mediocre offence. Carlson gets the benefit of an easy matchup against a Broncos team that allowed 8.65 PPG to opposing kickers. Carlson has always been accurate and is a safe options this week as a high-end PK1.
Jason Myers, Seahawks v LAR (3)
Myers gets a matchup with the Rams who allowed 8.47 PPG last year to kickers and are likely to continue hemorrhaging kicker points. The Seahawks should have this game easily in hand and could end the game settling for field goals instead of pushing the ball downfield. Myers is a top-six option for week one.
Sit ‘Em
Chris Boswell, Steelers v SF (32)
The Steelers are going to struggle to score in week one and Mike Tomlin is notorious for avoiding field goals in favor of going for it on fourth down. This is a bad combination for Boswell who faces the 49ers who allowed only 4.65 PPG to kickers in 2022. Boswell is likely to put up a zero and managers will be praying for a long field goal to save the stat line. Boswell should not be drafted in 2022.
Nick Folk, Patriots v PHI (31)
Folk faces an Eagles defense that allowed 5.50 PPG to kickers in 2022 and it figures to be a tough go for Nick Folk in week one. The Patriots have an unexciting offence and are likely to be down big in this one. It could be a long day for the entire New England offence. Avoid Folk if you can this week.
Greg Joseph, Vikings v TB (30)
The Vikings are likely to be a potent offence and Joseph will surely get a few extra point attempts. The problem is, if the Buccaneers can’t hang with them on the scoreboard the may run the clock out. The Buccaneers allowed 6.06 PPG to kickers last year and could are a bad matchup for week one. Sit Joseph this week.
Well that’s it for our Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em for Week 1 of the 2023 season. Remember, you can check out rankings for each Week. Reach out on social media, you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Or jump into our Discord server. Follow me on Twitter @FFMadScientist
Image Credit: Raj Mehta – USA TODAY Sports
Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em 2022 Week 14
Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em 2022 Week 14
