It’s finally here- Week 11 of the 2023 season, and the third DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Jared Goff v CHI ($6,600)
I mentioned last week how the return of David Montgomery to the Lions offense may be a catalyst for a regression in Goff’s passing attempts; unfortunately it appears I was correct as the Detroit QB only attempted 33 passes in their 41-38 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. I also suggested Monty regaining his place in the backfield could allow Goff more time in the pocket to be more efficient with his throws; fortunately it appears I was pretty accurate with this one too as Goff completed 70% of his passes for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns – his highest yardage total and first game without a pick since week 6. Detroit welcome divisional rivals Chicago to the Motor City, with the Bears looking to string together back-to-back wins for the first time this season. Justin Fields is set to return from injury for Da Bears in the highest O/U on the week at 48 points. Goff and co could be in-line for another shootout – I have Goff as a top 5 QB this week amongst all quarterbacks – for him to be priced up as the 7th highest priced QB on this slate makes him an easy pick
Kyler Murray @HOU ($6,100)
Whilst Kyler couldn’t find the end zone with his arm on his return, he did manage to score with his legs, putting to rest any fears he may not be at 100% following a lengthy absence with an ACL tear. Murray only completed 59% of his 32 passing attempts, but he totalled a respectable 249 yards on his efforts, tossing a pick in the process. Arizona now travels to Houston to face a Texans team who have allowed 612 yards and 4 touchdowns to Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield in their last 2 outings. Houston ranks 24th against opposing QBs and 26th against TEs, so look to Kyler and Trey McBride to continue their blossoming partnership that connected 8 times for 131 yards in the Cardinals win over the Falcons. Murray’s rushing ability always provides a high floor, coupled with the matchup – Kyler has top 5 upside on the slate.
Brock Purdy v TB ($5,800)
Last week I noted how the 49ers hadn’t held a lead since Deebo Samuel left the game in their week 6 defeat in Cleveland. Number 19 returned to the San Francisco starting receiving corps this previous week and within 4 minutes were ahead in Jacksonville. With all his toys in the box to play with, Brock Purdy was back to being Mr Very Relevant as he completed 73% of his passes for 296 yards and 3 scores in San Fran’s 34-3 win over the Jags. Purdy has only been priced up $100 for the visit of the Bucs this weekend and with an implied team total of 26 points, he seems as safe a bet there is to get another 250 yards and 2 touchdowns against a beatable Tampa Bay secondary.
Also consider Tua Tagovailoa v LV ($7,700) & Sam Howell v NYG ($6,300)
David Montgomery v CHI ($6,500)
My advice last week was to take advantage of Monty’s price tag before it went back up for week 11…well despite rushing for 116 yards and scoring a touchdown on his return, Montgomery’s pricing has come down $200 since his return for the Lions in their win over the Chargers. The former Bear did only see 12 rushing opportunities in his first game back compared to Jahmyr Gibbs 14, but after a 3 week absence due to a rib injury, it is unsurprising to see Dan Campbell ease in his battering ram of a running back. Monty and Gibbs will likely continue to split reps against a Chicago team ranked 20th against the run, don’t let that put you off – this is an elite offense and both backs will see enough work to be fantasy relevant. Monty has a higher touchdown upside and should resume goal-line packages this week, at $500 cheaper than Gibbs and with the revenge game narrative…I like Montgomery a lot this week.
Breece Hall @BUF ($6,400)
Goodbye Michael Carter, hello extra passing game work! As a Breece Hall re-draft manager, there was nothing more soul destroying than watching Michael Carter receive those sweet sweet dump-offs on the Jets final drive in week 9 against the Chargers. Immediately after that loss, Head Coach Robert Saleh was asked about Breece Hall’s involvement in the passing game, his response: “it’s something we definitely need to look at” – well clearly they have and Michael Carter now finds himself an Arizona Cardinal. Carter’s departure leaves just Dalvin Cook and 5th round rookie Israel Abanikanda behind Hall on the depth chart, so the sophomore stud should start to see that greater involvement fans desire and Saleh has hinted at. Gang Green travels to Upstate New York to face the 5-5 Bills who are reeling after another unexpected defeat, this time at the hands of the Broncos. Fantasy managers who have rostered Hall in recent weeks may be feeling some frustration, but Hall has had over 60 yards of production and a TD called back due to team penalties, and with Carter out of the picture, he should be in line for a big day – roster him with confidence.
James Conner @HOU ($5,700)
Those who rostered James Conner last week could rightfully feel a little disappointed at the return they got on their investment. Conner’s 16 rushing attempts were his first since picking up a knee injury against the Bengals in week 5, and with them, the 7th year back totted up 73 yards at 4.6 yards per carry. No targets, no receptions, to touchdowns – no bueno. Week 11 sees Conner and the Cardinals travel to Houston to take on a Texans team who ceded 100 total yards and a score to Joe Mixon last time out. I am putting Conner’s mediocre performance down to nothing more than a little bit of rust after returning from a 4 week absence, as well as re-establishing a rhythm with Kyler Murray who was also making his first appearance after a lengthy spell on the sidelines. Emari Demarcado has been ruled OUT for week 11; expect Conner to dominate the backfield against a Texans defense that can be run on.
Also consider Austin Ekeler @GB ($8,600), Tony Pollard @CAR ($6,600) & Aaron Jones v LAC ($6,200)
Deebo Samuel v TB ($6,300)
Welcome back Deebo, oh how we (and the 49ers) missed you. Returning from a 3 game absence, Samuel wasted no time familiarising himself with the end zone as he tallied 57 total yards and a rushing touchdown in San Francisco’s 34-3 trouncing of Jacksonville in Florida last Sunday. Deebo was only on the field for 56% of offensive snaps as Kyle Shanahan eased his star receiver back into action after the shoulder injury which forced him to sit for most of the last month. There are few players in the NFL who can do what Deebo can – offering a dual threat both on the ground and through the air. With a full week of practice under his belt, Deebo will be 100% as the 49ers host another Florida team in the form of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. The Bucs are strong against the run, so expect Brock Purdy to lean on his receivers as well as trick plays out of the backfield. Deebo is the ideal play against this Bucs defense and at $900 cheaper than Brandon Aiyuk, number 19 is the smart play.
Tank Dell v AZ ($5,900)
CeeDee Lamb, T.J. Hockenson, Garrett Wilson…these are the only 3 men who have received more targets in the last 2 weeks than Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. Somewhat disappointingly, Dell has only hauled in 48% of those targets, however…on his 12 receptions from C.J. Stroud, the 3rd round pick out of Houston has put up a staggering 170 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dell is an electric receiver and heading into the weekend, he is the only Texans wideout who doesn’t carry a designation. Noah Brown has been ruled out and Nico Collins has been limited at practice all week. As the only 100% fully fit wide receiver, Dell could be looking at a monster workload from Rookie of the Year candidate C.J. Stroud. He is $800 cheaper than Collins – I want part of the receiving corp in Houston against a very weak Cardinals secondary…Dell is the man to roster this time out.
D.J. Moore @DET ($5,600)
Heading into the weekend it looks as if Chicago’s supposed franchise quarterback Justin Fields will return from the thumb injury that has seen him sidelined since week 6. It has been a few weeks since Fields and Moore were on the field together for a full game; maybe I should check exactly what happened in the last game they played together…oh sweet merciful God! The Bears week 5 trip to Washington was the most recent matchup where Field and Moore were on the field together for a full 4 quarters. On the night, Fields ended up with 282 passing yards for 4 touchdowns, with 230 of those yards and 3 of the scores going to D.J. Moore. Chicago travels to divisional rivals Detroit for Sunday’s matchup in a game that has the highest O/U on the week; look to Moore and Fields to pick up where they left off and deliver a huge fantasy performance for your lineups, at only $5600 he is drastically under priced.
Also consider Terry McLaurin v NYG ($5,800), Marquise Brown @HOU ($5,300) & Diontae Johnson @CLE ($5,000)
Trey McBride @HOU ($4,400)
Trey McBride was the first tight end taken off the board in the 2022 draft, in his final year at Colorado State he was also the recipient of the prestigious John Mackey award; presented to the most outstanding player at the position. Previous recipients of the honour include little known players such as Hunter Henry, T.J. Hockenson, Heath Miller and Mark Andrews. The talent has always been there and with Zah Ertz continuing his stint on the IR, McBride is finally being given the opportunity to showcase his abilities. The sophomore has 28 targets in his last 3 games, only T.J. Hockenson has had more looks in that period with 36!. McBride has corralled 75% of those passes for a team leading 248 yards and a score. Any concerns for McBride’s involvement with the return of Kyler Murray evaporated against the Falcons last week as the 23-year old had a career day with 8 receptions for 131 yards. The Cardinals travel to Houston to take on a Texans defense ranked bottom 6 against the position – stay the course with McBride, his $4400 price tag is only going in one direction from here on in.
Tyler Conklin @BUF ($2,900)
There are roughly 1,696 currently active players on NFL rosters; if you had asked me at the start of the season “Which of those players do you think you will be writing about twice in the same week later in the season?” 11 weeks in and I would probably still be sitting at my desk guessing names and not have mentioned Jets tight end Tyler Conklin. The arguments I put forward for Conklin in my Bargain Bin article hold true here; he has seen 13 targets in his last 2 outings, catching them all for 136 yards, he also performs better when the Jets are losing (no jokes in the back), and as poor as the Bills have been, Gang Green are likely to be behind when the travel to Buffalo. I also mentioned how Conklin sits behind only superstar wideout Garrett Wilson in team targets, receptions and yards – what I didn’t mention in my previous article that has since come to light is the elbow injury Wilson is reportedly suffering from heading into the weekend. It doesn’t sound as if the Jets #1 target is going to miss time, but should his usage be limited, expect Conklin to be one of the main beneficiaries. He could be a top-8 TE this week for under $3000 – it’s a high risk/reward play.
Also consider Logan Thomas v NYG ($3,700) & Luke Musgrave v LAC ($3,600)
Dallas Cowboys @CAR ($4,100)
I am getting a slight feeling of Déjà vu recommending the Dallas defense in this column. For the second week in a row the Cowboys have the pleasure of squaring off against one of the worst teams in the NFL. After embarrassing the Giants in a 49-17 tilt last weekend, America’s Team now travels east to face a Carolina Panthers team with the worst record in football at 1-8. There is a feeling that this matchup comes under the too good to be true category, and that is understandable given the fantasy performance of the Cowboys DST last time out. Despite the 32 point victory, Dallas only recorded 1 interception and 5 sacks, totalling 8 fantasy points…not the investment we were after at $4400. Let other managers sweat that out, back the Cowboys DST with confidence as they face off against a rookie QB in Bryce Young with an almost perfect 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
Washington Commanders v NYG ($3,600)
It’s not every week you get to recommend the worst passing defense in the league as a DFS start, but it’s also not every week that this defense gets to face Tommy DeVito and the New York Football Giants…at home. The Commanders are fresh off a gut-wrenching loss to Seattle that saw them defeated by a walk-off Jason Myers field goal to fall to 4-6 on the season. In that game Washington allowed Geno Smith to pass 369 yards and 2 touchdowns, as well as giving up a further 120 yards on the ground. As bad as this Commanders defensive unit is, there is zero chance of them giving up almost 500 yards to the Tommy DeVito led Giants. Washington have only recorded 1 sack in their last 2 outings – the Giants have allowed a league leading 54 on the season…start the Commanders DST with confidence.
Also consider Pittsburgh Steelers @CLE ($3,500) & New York Giants @WAS ($3,000)
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Image Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports
