It’s finally here- Week 12 of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Josh Allen @PHI ($8,100)
New OC, no problem! Josh Allen put on a workmanlike performance in the Bills home blowout against the Jets last week, even if his fantasy numbers didn’t quire reflect it. The truth is, Allen didn’t have to play that well, he barely got out of 2nd gear and that was more than enough to see off the hapless men in green from East Rutherford. This week will be an entirely different picture; Allen and co. will once again be squaring off against foes in green, but Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in their kelly green should just offer a bigger challenge than Zach Wilson. This matchup has the biggest O/U of the week, and at 3 point dogs the Bills will more than likely need to lean on Allen’s cannon of an arm to keep up with their hosts. Despite boasting the best record in the NFL, the Eagles defense has been incredibly generous to opposing quarterbacks and receivers all season, giving up on average over 260 yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game. Add in Josh’s rushing ability and tendency to vulture a goal-line score…you have to question why Allen is priced as the 3rd highest QB on the slate below a struggling Patrick Mahomes and the man who’ll be on the other side of the field from him; Jalen Hurts. He’s my QB1 on the week.
Kyler Murray v LAR ($6,900)
I am a Kyler Murray fanboy, I’ll admit it…but how can you not love a quarterback who plays the game like the Cardinals #1? Murray can do it all; putting up yards through the air and scrambling for chunk plays on the ground; this is a man who clearly cares as much about your fantasy team as he does his K/D record on Call of Duty. Since his return in week 10, K1 has rushed for more yards and more touchdowns than Jonathan Taylor, Rachaad White, Derrick Henry and Breece Hall…not bad coming off an ACL tear. Murray may have only thrown for 1 touchdown in his 2 games thus far but I’m inclined to let that slide and put it down to still finding an in-game rhythm with his pass-catchers. Arizona host the Rams on Sunday afternoon, who in their last road game allowed Jordan Love to throw for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 23-20 defeat. I expect Murray to post his first multi-touchdown game of the year through the air at home to LA, and don’t be surprised if he makes it 3-in-a-row on the ground as well.
Also consider C.J. Stroud v JAX ($7,700) & Baker Mayfield @IND ($5,500)
Joe Mixon v PIT ($6,900)
It’s been a frustrating season for Joe Mixon, his 191 total opportunities rank 5th behind only Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne and Tony Pollard; but while those backs make up 4 of the top 7 on the season, Mixon is languishing down in 12th. Much like the 2022 season, Mixon and the Bengals started slowly, but as was also the case last year, the men from southern Ohio started to click by week 8 and were playoff bound…until Joe Burrow suffered a season ending wrist injury. Exit one J.B. at quarterback, enter another with 5th year UDFA Jake Browning stepping in as signal caller for the foreseeable future. Browning had somewhat of a baptism of fire, being thrown into the starting role on the road to divisional rivals Baltimore and their top-3 defense. Unsurprisingly, the backup struggled in the defeat, but with Mixon seeing 16 carries and 5 targets, it appears that at least one member of the Bengals offense could still retain their value in Burrow’s absence. Mixon’s 100 total yards from scrimmage was only the 2nd time this season he has hit triple digits and he’ll likely continue to see a hefty workload as Cincinnati play host to another divisional rival this week as they face the Steelers.
Derrick Henry v CAR ($6,400)
As a Derrick Henry manager in my main League of Record, this pick is tinged with optimism and hope. It would be fair to say King Henry’s output in his last 2 games has been disappointing. The veteran back rushed for only 62 total yards combined as Tennessee suffered consecutive losses in the Sunshine State against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. There is a pattern emerging for Henry, and it’s as simple as this – if the Titans win; he has a good fantasy day, if the Titans lose; he doesn’t. Unfortunately Tennessee are 3-7, and that tells the tale of Henry’s 8th season as a pro. Thankfully week 12 sees the Titans return home to Nashville as they face off against the 1-8 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers rank 31st against the run, and only the New York Football Giants have given up more rushing touchdowns on the season. The Titans are 3.5 point home favourites in this one, this has to be the week King Henry retakes his throne and takes his rightful place atop the rushing charts, right?
Rachaad White @IND ($6,100)
Another week, another disrespectful price-tag for the RB9 on the season. White’s price has finally creeped above $6000 after *checks notes* 6 weeks of double digit fantasy points! The pass-catching specialist in Tampa Bay has been nothing short of remarkable as he continues to dominate the Buccaneers backfield, serving as a consistent safety valve for Baker Mayfield on short yardage plays. The sophomore back may have only put up 58 total yards last time out, but that was against a very stout 49ers run defense…and even then, White still rewarded fantasy managers with a touchdown. Things will get much easier on the ground for Tampa this week as they travel to play a Colts defense giving up an average of 140 yards and a score top opposing rushers. White should get it done on the ground, and he always carries a threat in the passing game. Roster him with confidence.
(White landed unexpectedly on the Bucs injury report Saturday afternoon as is listed as questionable – check his status before the 6pm kick off)
Also consider Jonathan Taylor v TB ($6,900), Isiah Pacheco @LV ($6,200) & James Conner v LAR ($5,900)
Stefon Diggs @PHI ($8,800)
I have been trying to buy low on Diggs for weeks in my League of Record and after 2 down weeks I think I’ve finally worn the current Diggs manager down (Fiona, if you’re reading this, just skip to Puka Nacua please). After 4 consecutive games of 100 receiving yards between weeks 3 and 7, Diggs has yet to hit triple digits since, most recently posting back-to-back season lows of 34 and 27 yards against the Broncos and Jets in weeks 10 and 11. Thankfully for Diggs, he and the Bills now get to face a surprisingly generous Philadelphia defense who just love to give up yards to opposing wideouts. The Eagles rank dead last against the wide receiver position giving up over 260 yards per game to pass-catchers…Diggs is going to feast in this one. Diggs is priced $200 cheaper than A.J. Brown on the other side of the ball, a relative bargain in comparison given my projections for the Bills target leader. I’m anticipating double digit receptions for triple digit yards here for Stefon, throw in a touchdown for good measure and we hopefully see why Diggs is my WR1 on the week by a mile.
Puka Nacua @AZ ($7,600)
Is there a changing of the guard as the WR1 in Los Angeles for the Rams? Cooper Kupp entered the season as the undisputed leader of this receiving corps, but after missing the first 4 games through injury and the emergence of the 5th round rookie out of BYU, is it time to pledge allegiance to King Puka? Let’s not be too hasty to place the crown on Nacua’s head permanently, but with Kupp entering the game against Arizona tending to an ankle injury, Puka is certainly King Regent this weekend in my book. There were concerns that the return of Matthew Stafford would see the connection between him and his number one guy, leaving Puka out in the relative cold and diminishing his fantasy value…well Stafford got back on the field last weekend and only had eyes for Nacua (well also Darrell Henderson, but he was waived earlier in the week before returning the to practise squad). Nacua’s 7 targets led the team, as did his 5 catches and 70 receiving yards, and it was he, not Kupp, who corralled the only passing touchdown from his returning QB. I love Nacua this week, he feels like one of those top tier guys with a low WR1/high WR2 price tag…fire him up.
Christian Kirk @HOU ($5,700)
The pricing on Kirk this week is a gift to fantasy managers. Calvin Ridley has one big game and suddenly he is the top dog in Jacksonville…I don’t think so. Kirk still leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards, and despite a couple of down games – I believe he is still the WR to roster in North Florida. Ridley has leapfrogged Kirk in pricing this week as his big game in week 11 sees him jump a whopping $600 to $6000, Kirk on the other hand has dropped $300 down to $5700. Vegas has this as the 3rd highest O/U on the week, just 1.5 total points behind the Bills/Eagles game – and with the Jags being 1.5 road favourites, their implied team total is around the 25 point mark. C.J. Stroud has been unstoppable in recent weeks, and I anticipate both teams smashing their implied totals to take this game easily above the over. The Texans defense are middle of the pack against wide receivers, allowing just over 170 yards per game to opposing wideouts – after a breakout game last week, expect Ridley to receive a lot of attention from Houston’s defense, giving Kirk more space to make his mark.
Also consider Michael Pittman v TB ($6,800), Chris Olave @ATL ($6,600) & Demario Douglas @NYG ($4,400)
Evan Engram @HOU ($4,200)
Tell me you’re fading Calvin Ridley, without telling me you’re fading Calvin Ridley. My second Jags pass-catcher in this article, Evan Engram, should also be an excellent play against the Texans defense I’ve just implied will be torn apart by Christian Kirk. Houston may be mid-table against wideouts, but they are a bottom-8 unit when facing tight ends. Opposing TEs have averaged over 60 receiving yards against the Texans on the season, with Mark Andrews being the only notable name they have faced outside of Engram. The former 1st round pick had his 2nd best game of the season so far the first time these two teams met back in week 3. Engram ranks 3rd in the league on targets and receptions, sitting behind only T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce in both categories. Entering week 12, Engram is the only tight end in the top 18 players at the position to not have scored a touchdown on the season…start him for his safe floor and hope that touchdown regression works its magic and sees Engram finally delete that goose egg from his yearly stats.
David Njoku @DEN ($4,100)
Here is a list of all the players that saw more targets in week 11 than Browns tight end David Njoku – Davante Adams…end of list. The 7th year veteran saw a whopping 15 targets from Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Cleveland’s 13-10 over divisional rivals Pittsburgh last weekend, hauling in 7 for 56 scoreless yards. Yes the output on such a huge volume is disappointing but the 15 targets Njokue received from DRT were a career high, and only the 2nd time the veteran has seen double digit looks since his sophomore season back in 2018. The Browns travel to Mile High to face a Broncos team that is riding high, having won their last 4. Denver are 1.5 point home favourites and will be a tough nut for DRT to crack in only his 3rd start, but one area that the Broncos can be beaten in is at the tight end position. The men from Mile High rank dead last on the season, allowing a league worst 72 yards per game to opposing tight ends – Njoku should be a high volume play this weekend.
Also consider Dalton Kincaid @PHI ($5,300) & Trey McBride v LAR ($4,700)
New England Patriots @NYG ($3,200)
I feel like a broken record saying this every week, but nobody is allowing more sacks than Big Blue and despite Tommy DeVito torching the Commanders for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns…the New York Football Giants are still the worst offense in the National Football League. With the Patriots currently ranking as the 2nd worst offense, there should be no surprise that this matchup has the lowest O/U of the week (possibly even the year) at a measly 34 points. Low points totals mean good things for defenses, and with the Pats being favoured by almost 4 points…there’s a lot to like about this DST at only $3200. For some reason the Giants are priced $300 higher at $3500 – that feels the wrong way round to me. New England may be having their worst season in over 20 years, and have very little to offer fantasy managers this year, but their defense can at least provide some value on this week’s slate.
Kansas City Chiefs @LV ($3,100)
The Chiefs become one of only a handful of picks on the season to be featured in both my Slatebreakers column and Bargain Bin picks earlier in the week. To borrow a line from my earlier analysis – the Kansas City defense has recorded at least 5 sacks, multiple INTs or a defensive touchdown in each of their last 5 outings…and now they get to play rookie Aidan O’Connell! The 25-year old rookie is averaging only 189 passing yards since taking over from Jimmy Garoppolo in week 7 and has a 1:2 touchdown to interception ratio on the year. KC may just be may favourite DST on the week and they are priced closer to the bottom of the slate than the top, outstanding value at only $3100.
Also consider New Orleans Saints @ATL ($3,500) & Denver Broncos v CLE ($3,200)
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Image Credit: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports
