Moving onto Week 13 of the 2023 season, and we are going to give you some DraftKings bargain bin plays for the week. These are plays that are on the ultra-value/ GPP contrarian side. So generally avoid these plays in cash game lineups, but in GPPs- especially big fields go for it!
You can find all of our DFS content here, and be ready for the week.
Bailey Zappe v LAC ($4,800)
It appears as if the Mac Jones era in New England is over. The No. 15 overall pick in the 2021 draft started the season hot with a 3-TD performance against Philadelphia but since that opening week, Jones has thrown for only 7 scores while tossing 11 picks. Jones was the first rookie QB to start a season for the Patriots since Drew Bledsoe ran out on day 1 over 30 years ago – the Pats will be hoping Jones’ replacement Bailey Zappe can emulate the man who eventually took over from Bledsoe…but we’ve already seen Zappe play, and he ain’t no Tom Brady. Zappe came on in the 2nd half of New England’s latest defeat, completing 9 of his 14 passes for 54 yards with an INT, as the Patriots sunk to 2-9 following their 10-7 loss to the Giants in New York. Zappe may not be an upgrade on Jones, but the matchup is a promising one as Bill Belichick’s boys in blue welcome the Chargers, currently giving up a league worst 303 yards through the air to opposing quarterbacks.
Joe Flacco @LAR ($4,600)
A couple weeks back I mentioned Jets TE Tyler Conklin as “a player I never thought I’d be writing about” in 2023…well here we are only a few weeks later, and typing out Joe Flacco’s name makes any mention of Tyler Conklin seem like recommending Christian McCaffrey. The Super Bowl 42 winner and MVP was signed to the Browns practise squad a mere 11 days ago, but after one full week of taking reps in training (as well as a concussion for DRT) the 38-year old former Raven will lead out another AFC North franchise, as he was named the starter for Sunday’s game in LA. Normally I’d put up some encouraging stats here to show why the incoming signal caller is superior to the guy he replaced…but Flacco hasn’t thrown a pass since Gang Green ended the 2022 season with a whimpering loss in Miami, so it would be somewhat unfair to critique what was his first performance after a 15 week lay-off that season. Who knows what you’re gonna get with Flacco, but at $4600 he could be worth a dart throw.
Jaylen Warren ($5,400) / Najee Harris ($5200) v AZ
I am torn as to which of the two Steelers running backs I prefer this week, so with an air of journalistic integrity…I am going to recommend them both and take any credit when either has a good game (if they both tank, then I take no responsibility). I mentioned last week how Warren is the better back on this roster and how this was “as clear as day” to anyone who has watched Pittsburgh play this year; so of course Najee Harris would deliver his best rushing performance of the year and outpace Warren in almost every category as the Steelers ran out 16-10 winners over their divisional rivals Cincinnati. Harris’ 99 rushing yards were a season high, as was his 6.6 yards per carry; conversely Warren’s 3.8 YPC was his lowest since week 4, as he was held to under 50 yards on his 13 opportunities. The tandem now get to face a Cardinals team ranked dead last against the run on Sunday afternoon, in a home matchup where the hosts are a full TD favourite. Expect both backs to see plenty of opportunities in a game the Steelers should control from the outset. I project Harris to have the better game on the ground, but in PPR formats, Warren is always dangerous.
Zack Moss @TEN ($4,600)
Welcome to your Free Square pick of the week. Zack Moss has become somewhat of a forgotten man in Indianapolis in recent weeks. Jonathan Taylor’s return to full strength has seen the former Buffalo Bill relegated to a mare handcuff in re-draft, and completely unstartable in DFS. Moss has seen just 16 carries in his last 3 outings, 2 shy of the 18 he saw against Cleveland in week 7 alone. The 3rd round pick in 2020 was most likely just as surprised as the rest of us to see team-mate Taylor appear on the Colts injury report this week, and probably equally as stunned to hear Taylor’s thumb injury required surgery which would see him miss the next 2-3 weeks. Welcome back to our starting lineups Zaccheus! Moss will plug back into the role with immediate effect and should see a similar workload, equal to that of the first 5 weeks of the season which Taylor missed due to an ankle injury. Tennessee are a middle-of-the-pack run defense, but I’m not targeting the matchup here…Moss will be a high volume starter for only $4600, set it and forget it.
Jeff Wilson @WAS ($4,600)
What to make of the Miami backfield? Raheem Mostert continues to defy Father Time (and his career injury history), with the 31-year old former 49er showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Mostert’s 94 rushing yards against the Jets last time out were his 3rd-highest on the season, as the Dolphin’s lead back continued to shine in the absence of explosive rookie De’Von Achane. True to form for HC Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins deployed a rotating-back system, making use of all available talent in the blowout 34-13 victory over their divisional rivals. Mostert led the team with 20 carries, but fit-again Jeff Wilson saw significant volume on the day with 11 carries out of the backfield as well as 3 successful targets in the passing game. Wilson’s 73-yards from scrimmage was a season high and he will look to be even more involved as Miami travels to a Washington team ranked a league worst against the pass. I anticipate the Dophins putting this one to bed in good time, allowing McDaniel to rest Mosters in favour of his other backs…primarily Wilson. If Achane continues to sit, Wilson is an excellent play at just $4600.
Demario Douglas v LAC ($4,300)
I’ll preface this one with a warning – Douglas is currently still in the League’s concussion protocol and as of Thursday has yet to practise – if he clears, it’s full steam ahead…but be prepared to pivot.
I’ve mentioned Demario ‘Pop’ Douglas a few times in this column now, and don’t expect that to change so long as the rookie continues to be priced up around the $4000 mark. Douglas now leads the Patriots in targets and receiving yards on the season (he’s also just 1 shy of Bourne’s 37 receptions) and is the clear WR1 on the team in Kendrick Bourne’s absence…the only thing missing is touchdowns. Entering week 13, Pop is yet to find the end zone – but the blame can’t be placed at the young receiver’s feet. New England sit behind only the Jets, Steelers, Browns and Titans in passing TDs on the year, so it is hardly surprising Douglas is setting that column of his stat sheet alight. Mac Jones is out at QB and Bailey Zappe is in – I don’t consider Zappe as much of an upgrade, but the matchup this week against a Chargers defense surrendering almost 200 yards to opposing wideouts is a very tempting one.
Greg Dortch @PIT ($3,700)
The recent exponential production from the 5th year wideout can be attributed to 2 factors; the return of franchise QB Kyler Murray and the injury to rookie pass catcher Michael Wilson. Dortch is a great squad guy – he’s been efficient when called upon in Arizona, but is buried on the depth chart behind Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore, Michael Wilson and Tight End Trey McBride. Wilson’s absence has given Dortch the opportunity to be more involved, one he’s grasped with both hands.The UDFA out of Wake Forest has seen 17 targets from Murray over the last two weeks, hauling in 9 of these for 103 yards and a touchdown. Wilson looks set to miss his 3rd consecutive for the Cardinals trip to Pittsburgh, opening the door for Dortch to produce once again. The the Steelers being a full touchdown favourite, expect Kyler to air it out more than usual, giving Dortch the chance to once again put up decent numbers for fantasy managers.
A.T. Perry v DET ($3,300)
Drafted in the 6th round of this year’s draft, little was expected from the receiver out of Wake Forest – but a week 10 performance against the Vikings that saw the rookie put up 38 yards and a score has seen Perry become something of a dark horse option for DFS managers this week. Coming off a 6 game spell featuring 2 wins bookended by 2 losses either side, it’s fair to suggest the Saints are blowing a little hot and cold. With Michael Thomas landing on the IR, Rashid Shaheed struggling with a thigh injury, and Chris Olave yet to clear concussion protocol – Perry is effectively the last man standing in this New Orleans wide receiver room. Don’t expect fireworks from the rookie, but against a Detroit Lions defense ranked 25th against the pass and an O/U of 46.5 – there should be plenty of fantasy points up for grabs for Perry. At only $3300, Perry could be a smash start for budget conscious managers – don’t let him be the one that got away.
Juwan Johnson v DET ($3,400)
I’m all out of Katy Perry songs, but my recommendation of Juwan Johnson follows the same beat as his teammate in the WR section. Johnson is the true pass-catching option at TE for the Saints, with Go-Go-Gadget Tight End Taysom Hill giving New Orleans HC Dennis Allen an alternative at the position that he can deploy all over the field. Johnson saw 7 targets from Derek Carr last time out, hauling in 4 of those for 45 scoreless yards. With so many of Carr’s wideouts banged up, it could be a BIG day for Johnson and Hill in the passing game. The Saints are just 1.5 point underdogs in this one, but I expect them to go behind to Goff and co in the Superdome. Johnson will be involved, he has a safe floor with a high TD dependent upside.
Cade Otton ($3,200)
If I can stretch to $3400, I’m starting Johnson here but I’m aware not all budgets will allow such luxuries, so in a pinch Cade Otton can be rostered for fantasy managers looking to spend down. The sophomore tight end has put up back-to-back games of 4 receptions for 40+ yards but faces a tough matchup against a Carolina defense ranked 7th against the position. Baker Mayfield suffered an ankle unjust last time out against the Colts so may be a little sluggish in the pocket forcing some short yardage dumpoffs under pressure, benefitting Otton and Rachaad White. Otton is scoring a touchdown every 4 games and hasn’t found the endzone in his last 3 outings…so it’s just science that he will score at home to the Panthers, right?
Detroit Lions @NO ($3,000)
This may come as a shock pick given my selection of 2 New Orleans passing options, but let’s look at it sensibly – the Saints are struggling in the passing game this week with so many options potentially missing. Yes, Alvin Kamara has proved himself to still have plenty to offer in his advancing years, but the Lions rank 2nd against the running back position so should have a much better chance of slowing down the 7th year veteran than others have of late. The upside isn’t massive, but Detroit present one of the safer options on the slate at the position this week.
Washington Commanders v MIA ($2,300)
If Detroit offers a high floor with relative safety, then we are going full 180 with the Commanders as they welcome the electric Miami Dolphins to the nation’s capital. Washington are amongst the worst passing defenses in the league and now have the pleasure of facing off against Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In true “blink and you’ll miss it” style, this one could get ugly…and fast – but the record breaking Miami offense from the first 5 weeks of the season has started to slow down of late and Tua has become very fond of turning the ball over with an interception in 4 of his last 5 outings, as well as 3 lost fumbles in the same spell. This is a massive risk/reward selection, but at only $2300 rostering the Commanders allows you to spend up elsewhere…just don’t expect miracles, or even positive points if Miami come to play.
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Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports
