It’s finally here- Week 13 of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Tua Tagovailoa @WAS ($7,900)
It would be fair to call the fantasy performances of Miami’s signal caller “inconsistent” this season. He has finished as a QB1 4 times in his 11 starts, but outside the top 20 on 3 occasions…including last week’s 34-13 victory over the Jets. Tua must be a huge Wizard of Oz fan, as the Dolphins QB certainly subscribes to the mantra of “there’s no place like home”. In Miami’s 6 road games this season, Tagovailoa has scored under 15 fantasy points in 5 of them, failing to record more than a single touchdown in each of the 5. Well Tua, we’re not in Miami anymore (or Kansas, thank God as that was a disaster in week 9) but despite being away from the warmth of South Beach, I expect the former No.5 overall pick to put up some solid numbers against the Commanders. No team is giving up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 277 passing yards Washington are allowing ranks 30th in the league. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, you won’t need to click your heels together 3 times to make a wish…simply slip him into your QB slot and watch those fantasy points stack up.
Brock Purdy @PHI ($6,100)
The 49ers victory over the Seahawks was a rare down week for Purdy, with the former Mr. Irrelevant putting up his 2nd worst fantasy performance of the season despite San Fran recording a comfortable win. Purdy’s performance wasn’t necessarily bad, it just wasn’t good…nor did it really have to be as Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel combined for 129 rushing yards and 3 scores to give Kyle Shanahan’s team their 3rd win on the bounce. Week 13 will be an entirely different proposition, with Purdy and the 49ers travelling east to face the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles in a matchup that boasts the highest O/U on the slate. Despite owning the best record in the NFL, the Eagles can be thrown on, giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposition QBs. I’m expecting a high scoring affair in the city of brotherly love, with Purdy getting back to his near trademarked 250 yard and 2 TD performance.
Also consider C.J. Stroud v DEN ($8,100) & Sam Howell v MIA ($6,200)
Derrick Henry v IND ($6,800)
All hail King Henry! After back-to-back games of under 6 fantasy points, Derrick Henry got back in fantasy managers good books with 2 rushing touchdowns last time out in the Titans 17-10 home win over Carolina. Adding 78 yards on the ground, this was Henry’s first multi-score game since week 9 of the 2022 season. Henry’s 64.2% snap count was his highest since week 7, out-carrying Tyjae Spears 18-2 after the sophomore back took a nasty hit early on. As we’ve come to expect in recent years, Henry looks to be getting up to full steam as temperatures start to plummet, and with divisional rivals Indianapolis coming to town on Sunday, King Henry will be looking for revenge against a soft run defense that somehow held him to only 43 yards earlier in the season. Week 12 saw Henry used as he should be…a lot; expect Mike Vrabel to lean heavily on his star back with rookie Will Levis continuing to struggle in the passing game.
Bijan Robinson @NYJ ($6,700)
Speaking of running backs with multi-touchdown performances who are finally being used to their full potential. It only took Arthur Smith the best part of 3 months, but it appears as if the Falcons Head Coach has finally figured out how to utilise their 1st round running back. The answer for anyone still not sure is – as much as possible. The rookie has now posted back-to-back games of 95 and 91 yards on the ground – the latter coming against a particularly stout New Orleans run defense on only 16 carries. Unbelievably at 5-6, the Falcons sit atop the NFC South and will look to record consecutive wins for the first time since week 2 as they head to East Rutherford to face the Jets. My advice to Arthur Smith if he wants to win more games…keep using Bijan as you have been recently. Gang Green ranks 28th against the run, allowing almost 150 yards per game to the position each week. Robinson is priced up behind Mostert, Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs on the slate – I’m projecting him to outperform them all, he’s a steal at $6700.
Zack Moss @TEN ($4,600)
I wrote about Zack Moss in my Bargain article earlier in the week after the news of Jonathan Taylor’s injury broke. With Taylor looking set to miss 2-3 weeks after a surgical procedure on his thumb, it will be the Zack Moss show until the Colts lead back is fit enough to return to action. We have already seen what Moss can do with a full workload after Taylor missed the opening 4 weeks of the season with a knee injury, so there should be no doubting the former Bill’s ability to put up significant numbers for fantasy in this offense. The Titans held Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders to only 73 yards on 29 attempts last time out, but even as a back-up, Moss is a more talented rusher at this stage of his career than either of the men in Carolina. Moss’ best game of the season came against this very defense back in week 5 as the 4th year back went off for 195 total yards and 2 touchdowns – don’t expect that level of production again this week, but at only $4600 he’s a free square on this slate.
Also consider Jahmyr Gibbs @NO ($6,700), Rachaad White v CAR ($6,300) & Javonte Williams @HOU ($5,700)
Michael Pittman Jr. @TEN ($7,100)
Only 11 wideouts have seen 25 or more targets since week 10…only 1 of them has had their bye week in that stretch. Pittman’s 25 looks from Gardner Minshew in those 2 games yielded 18 receptions for 191 scoreless yards, and his 111 targets on the season ranks T-7th at the position. Despite the emergence of rookie Josh Downs, Pittman is the guy in Indianapolis; leading the team in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. Pittman and Minshew have been held out of the endzone in their last 2 contests and now travel to face a Titans defense ranked 14th against the pass. I’m not chasing the matchup with this pick, Pittman will see plenty of attention in coverage and Minshew has thrown a pick in all but 1 of his last 6 games – but the sheer volume of targets received by the 4th year receiver out of USC makes him an excellent play on the slate.
Nico Collins v DEN ($6,800)
The Texans passing game has been nothing short of sensational – heading into week 13 they rank 2nd only behind the Washington Commanders in passing yards. C.J Stroud is 73 yards shy of Sam Howell’s total on the season, with the rookie achieving his total of 3266 on 95 fewer attempts. The No.2 overall pick is 1/100 with some bookmakers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and ther will be few who could deny he deserves it. Stroud’s talent is undeniable, but the contribution being made by his wide receivers has played a huge part in the former Buckeye’s success. Nico Collins and Tank Dell have combined for 1509 yards and 12 touchdowns so far on the year – with the pair seemingly taking turns to have blow-up games. Dell went for 149 yards and a score in week 11 before Collins posted his own 100+ yard game last week against divisional rivals Jacksonville. The pattern dictates it’s the rookie Dell’s turn to put up big numbers, but with the 3rd round pick entering the weekend with a calf injury, expect the veteran Collins to see majority of the looks from C.J Stroud. Tight End Dalton Schultz was a late addition to the Texans injury report on Friday and looks set to miss the visit of Denver on Sunday – Nico is in for a HUGE workload this week against a tough Broncos defense.
Deebo Samuel @PHI ($6,200)
San Francisco’s week 12 win over the Seahawks saw Deebo record his highest reception total of the season, hauling in 7 of his 9 targets from Brock Purdy for 79 yards. As well as getting it done through the air, Deebo continued to see usage on the ground, rushing on 4 occasions for 15 yards and a score. Samuel provides Kyle Shanahan an alternative weapon to Christian McCaffrey in the run game, posing problems for opposing defenses and was expertly used last weekend on his scoring play to put the 49ers on their way against their divisional rivals in Seattle. Expect to see Deebo used in a more traditional manner this weekend as San Fran travels to Philadelphia to face the 10-1 Eagles. As I mentioned earlier, Philly gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs so it should come as no shock to hear they rank dead last against the wide receiver position. I have both Deebo and Brandon Aiyuk in my top 10 this weekend – but at a full $1000 cheaper, I much prefer Samuel on the slate than his team-mate.
Also consider Adam Thielen @TB ($6,600), Terry McLaurin v MIA ($5,500) & Diontae Johnson v AZ ($5,000)
Taysom Hill v DET ($5,200)
At $5200 Hill is priced up as the 3rd most expensive tight end on the slate sitting behind only George Kittle and Sam LaPorta. I’m going to be honest, that feels steep for a TE with only 9 receptions for 99 yards in his last 4 outings. Taysom hasn’t put up a double digit fantasy performance since the Saints week 9 victory over Chicago, but with Chris Olave yet to clear concussion protocol, Rashid Shaheed already ruled out with a thigh injury, and Michael Thomas being placed on the IR – Derek Carr will be leaning heavily on the more experienced heads in his receiving corps. A.T. Perry should see more involvement against a Bears defense ranked 24th against wideouts, but Taysom Hill and fellow tight end Juwan Johnson should be the main benefactors from the multiple absences in the wide receiver room. Hill will get his fair share of targets but will also continue to be used as a gadget player in all facets of this offense, taking snaps at quarterback and as a rusher. We could be in for another one of those games from Hill.
David Njoku @LAR ($4,100)
No tight end has seen more targets over the last 2 weeks than David Njoku; even removing his 9 targets in week 12, the Browns leading pass-catcher would still only be a single target behind Trey McBride and Travis Kelce’s 2-game total of 16. The 7th year TE’s numbers were undoubtedly a result of being hyper targeted by rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson who unfortunately will miss Cleveland’s trip to LA on Sunday evening due to failing to progress through the league’s concussion protocol. With DRT ruled out, it will be recently signed veteran Joe Flacco throwing Njoku the ball in the City of Angels, making it difficult to predict the former Miami Hurricane’s usage. Flacco being at the helm should be good news for all Cleveland pass catchers, provided he’s not too rusty after his 11 month layoff from NFL action. The matchup versus the Rams is a good one, and at $2100 cheaper than George Kittle and $1500 less than Sam LaPorta, Njoku is an affordable high upside start at the position.
Also consider Pat Freiermuth v AZ ($4,300) & Juwan Johnson v DET ($3,400)
Los Angeles Rams v CLE ($3,700)
Joe Flacco will become the Browns 4th different starting quarterback when he takes the field on Sunday evening, replacing Dorian Thompson-Robinson less than 2 weeks after being signed off the street to the team’s practise squad. With DRT in the concussion protocol, it will be the 38-year old veteran and Super Bowl 47 winner starting under centre for 7-4 Cleveland, with their eyes still very much set on the playoffs. I have no doubt Flacco is an upgrade on DRT, even in his progressing years…but this is a QB who hasn’t taken a snap since “leading” the New York Jets to a 11-6 defeat in Miami to close out the 2022 season. Flacco made only 4 starts for Gang Green last season, 3 of those coming in the first 3 weeks of the season…there is a (much) greater than zero chance that the veteran is just done. Expect the Rams to get after the 16th year signal caller as he looks to shake off the rust – they could have huge upside at only $3700.
Atlanta Falcons @NYJ ($3,400)
Welcome to your weekly recommendation of whoever is playing the New York Jets. Tim Boyle will get his 2nd consecutive start in East Rutherford as he and the J-E-T-S will look to stop a 4 game slump that hasn’t seen them win a game since their 3-point victory over local rivals the Giants back in week 8. Gang Green haven’t put more than 13 points on the scoreboard since before their week 7 bye, and outside of electric running back Breece Hall, this entire offense looks toothless regardless of the opponent. Tim Boyle is not the answer at quarterback for the Jets, and will be replaced as soon as Aaron Rodgers is fit enough to complete anything resembling a pass. The Falcons have recorded a sack or an INT in each of their last 6 outings – expect them to make it 7 on Sunday in New Jersey.
Also consider Detroit Lions @NO ($3,000) & Tennessee Titans v IND ($2,800)
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Image Credit: Jim Brown – USA TODAY Sports
