It’s finally here- Week 14 of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
C.J. Stroud @NYJ ($7,600)
A few weeks back I discussed how C.J. Stroud was 1/100 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year…3 games, 6 touchdowns and 914 yards later; he’s now 1/200 with most bookmakers. The No.2 overall pick is on a 17 game pace of 5,015 passing yards in his debut season, some 636 more than current rookie record holder Andrew Luck who put up 4,374 yards through the air back in 2012. Sure, Luck only had 16 games back in those days but even adjusting to a per game pace, Stroud would still be on course to post 4,720 yards, surpassing Luck by a full 346 yards…C.J. has been nothing short of phenomenal. Week 14 will see the former Buckeye face one the sternest tests of his short career; the New York Jets…no laughing in the back please! Whilst Gang Green may be sitting at 4-8 off the back of a 5 game losing streak and making headlines for all the wrong reasons (imagine having to practically beg Zach Wilson to come back in as your starter…yikes), the Jets defense is legit, ranking 4th against opposing QBs and 1st against wideouts. So far this season only elite signal callers have got it done against the men from East Rutherford…well, Stroud may only have a dozen pro starts under his belt, but the kid is elite. He’s $500 cheaper than his mark last weekend and will be a likely fade for a lot of managers as he travels to New York, but he’s a great start in my eyes on this slate.
Brock Purdy v SEA ($6,500)
The Brock Purdy story continues to be one of my favourite angles in the NFL right now. The critics and naysayers were quick to brand 2022’s Mr Irrelevant as just another system quarterback, and that “anybody would succeed in that Shanahan offense”…well, not only is Purdy succeeding, he is thriving! After a rare down week against this week’s opponents in week 12, Brock bounced back in a big way with a 314 yard, 4 touchdown performance as the 49ers blew away fellow Super Bowl candidates, the Philadelphia Eagles, in their own backyard 42-19. Purdy leads the league in Yards Per Attempt, his 9.6 YPA is a full yard ahead of 2nd place Tua Tagovailoa who has the luxury of throwing a 60+ yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill every week. C.J. Stroud leads the way in total passing yards with 3.540, Purdy sits 7th with 3,185 but has done so on 86 fewer attempts. Every QB in the league who has passed for over 3,000 yards this year has done so on at least 400 attempts…except Purdy who sits at a mere 332 (T-Law has 399, but it’s close enough to make my point). Purdy will look to extend the 49ers winning run to 5 at home to their divisional rivals, a victory that will all but seal 1st place in the NFC West, and cement Mr Irrelevant’s claim to become Mr. MVP by the end of the season.
Also consider Jared Goff @CHI ($6,400) & Russell Wilson @LAC ($5,800)
Joe Mixon v IND ($6,100)
Despite delivering his best fantasy performance of the season in week 13, and now facing a Colts defense ranked 29th against the run, Cincinnati’s lead rusher has seen his price tag dropped a massive $800 for this weekend’s slate. Maybe the guys over at DraftKings know something I don’t, but what I do know is this – the Bengals are 2 point favourites at home, in a matchup with an O/U of 44 points…Mixon should feast as Cincinnati look to go over .500 on the season and try to move into the AFC Wildcard spots. Indianapolis head to Ohio off the back of a narrow 31-28 OT win over Tennessee in Nashville, but don’t be fooled – this is a defense that still allowed Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears to combine for 177 yards and 2 scores on the ground, and another 31 yards through the air. Mixon is the only show in town for the Bengals despite Chase Brown seeing 9 carries against the Jags last time out. The pricing, matchup and opportunity are all delicious – start Mixon with confidence.
David Montgomery @CHI ($6,400)
I love a revenge game narrative, I love the Detroit Lions offense, and I love anyone going up against the Chicago Bears run defense…so it should come as no surprise that I am really excited about David Montgomery this week. Monty has failed to score in only 1 contest where he’s suited up this season, that was in week 6 on the road in Florida against a stout Tampa Bay defensive unit…that he also got hurt in. Aside from that one blip, the former Chicago Bear has found the end zone (at least once) every other week this year. The Lions hosted their divisional rivals in week 11, a contest they won 31-26 thanks to Montgomery ploughing his way in for the go-ahead score with only 26 seconds left in the game. Chicago held another NFC North rival, the Minnesota Vikings, to only 60 yards from their running backs last week…but Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler are no David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit are 3 point favourites with an implied team total of 23…a Lou Malnati’s Deep Dish Pizza won’t be the only thing Monty is feasting on come Sunday.
Jerick McKinnon ($4,800) / Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4200) v BUF
This is a late pivot play following the news coming out of Kansas City on Friday evening. Sophomore running back, and lead rusher on the team Isiah Pacheco has been ruled OUT of this weekend’s clash against Buffalo with bruising on his shoulder. Worryingly this is the same shoulder the 7th round pick in last year’s draft had surgery on during the off-season. In Pacheco’s absence (at least for this week) both Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (remember him?) offer great value on the slate, with both in-line to see a significantly increased workload and also priced under the $5000 mark. McKinnon proved to be a fantasy darling late last season, closing out his campaign with 7 touchdowns between weeks 13 and 17, but it is CEH who Andy Reid has proclaimed as his “number one guy” for Sunday’s matchup. Buffalo are ranked 21st against the run, allowing an average of 134 yards to opposing backs each week. In PPR formats I am leaning McKinnon, but CEH should see the majority of carries. Both are fine plays for the price, freeing up salary to spend up at WR or DST.
Also consider Bijan Robinson v TB ($6,500) & Zack Moss @CIN ($5,900)
Chris Olave v CAR ($7,000)
THIS is the Chris Olave I drafted back in September in re-draft! The Saints leading receiver has now gone 4 straight games with either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown, delivering back-to-back-to-back-to-back fantasy totals of at least 16 points. New Orleans now welcome divisional rivals Carolina to the Superdome as they look to snap a 3-game losing streak against the worst team in football. The 1-11 Panthers are looking to avoid defeat which would complete their 2nd 6-game losing streak on the season. It would be fair to say this is not the start to the Bryce Young era that Carolina fans (and staff) had been hoping for. One bright spot in 2023 for the Panthers has been their defensive play against the pass, ranking 2nd against QBs and 7th against wide receivers. This strong front doesn’t put me off rostering the main man in New Orleans, especially if Jameis Winston is under centre and getting loose. Olave isn’t as cheap as I would like him to be this week, but I’m confident in another good showing from the sophomore out of Ohio State.
Deebo Samuel v SEA ($6,800)
Over the last 2 weeks Tyreek Hill has 14 receptions for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns…yet he still didn’t have as many fantasy points as Deebo Samuel in that 2 game stretch. Samuel has been unstoppable both through the air and on the ground putting up 195 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns alongside 37 rushing yards and another 2 scores on the ground. Last week, despite a 116 yard day in the passing game, was slightly concerning however – Deebo had only 4 looks from Brock Purdy against the Eagles, accounting for just 14% of the team’s target share. Deebo was incredibly efficient with the targets he received as expected, hauling in each of them with a long of 48. Samuel and the 49ers now welcome divisional rivals Seattle to the Bay Area this weekend with the 5th year receiver hoping to replicate the 94 total yards and a touchdown he put up against the Seahawks just 3 weeks ago. Deebo is still cheaper than Brandon Aiyuk on the slate, but it is closing every week – take advantage of the $100 discount on the 49ers biggest threat not named Christian McCaffrey.
D.J. Moore v DET ($6,500)
In the 2 games prior to the Bears bye in week 13, only 2 wideouts saw more targets than Chicago’s D.J. Moore – Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill. In the 4 games Justin Fields was missing, Moore posted a total of 211 receiving yards from stand-in QB Tyson Bagent; in the 2 since Fields returned Moore has tallied 210. With his (current) franchise signal caller back under centre, Moore is a weekly WR1 yet is priced up 16th on the slate at the position. The former Carolina Panther now gets to face a Detroit passing defense ranked 22nd, giving up an average of 161 yards to opposing receivers. The Bears are playing for pride at this point, but you can guarantee they will be out to do anything they can to disrupt their divisional rivals playoff push, especially in front of the Soldier Field crowd. Da Bears are a 3 point underdog in a matchup with an O/U of 43 – expect Fields to look to Moore early and often.
Also consider Rashee Rice v BUF ($5,400) & Drake London v TB ($4,600)
Evan Engram @CLE ($4,800)
He did it, he finally found the end zone! Fantasy managers rejoiced last Sunday as the Jags tight end made it 12th time lucky, scoring his first touchdown of the season in the 31-34 OT defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals. Touchdowns were all that was keeping Engram out of the top tier tight end conversation, so hopefully shaking that money off his back will be the catalyst to greater fantasy relevance for the former 1st round draft pick. Entering week 14, Evan Engram sits behind only T.J. Hokenson and Travis Kelce on the year in total targets – his workload is the stuff of fantasy dreams, unfortunately this week his matchup is that of fantasy nightmares as Jacksonville heads to Cleveland to face their 2nd team from Ohio in as many weeks. The Browns are holding opposing TEs to a measly 22 yards per game…yikes. Don’t let that or the potential absence of Trevor Lawrence put you off – Engram is an essential part of this offense, even more so with Christian Kirk now being placed on IR. The 7th year TE was also the favourite target of C.J. Beathard after the journeyman filled in for the injured T-Law, don’t sweat it – Engram is a safe bet with renewed touchdown upside.
Kyle Pitts v TB ($3,700)
Kyle Pitts has recorded only 2 double-digit fantasy performances on the season…it would be fair to say that promising rookie season is nothing but a distant memory for the 3rd year tight end out of Florida. There was some promise in week 13 however with the return of Desmond Ridder and Pitts leading the team in targets, receptions and yards. The 4 grabs for 51 yards may not exactly be the most existing stat line he will ever produce, but it does give hope for fantasy managers heading into the Falcons divisional clash against the Bucs this Sunday. Tampa ranks 27th against the position, and with a steadfast run defense, Ridder will be forced to take to the skies as the Falcons look to keep a hold of their spot atop the NFC South. Pitts will be behind Drake London in this one, but he should see enough work to make him a viable start for DFS.
Also consider David Njoku v JAX ($4,100) & Brevin Jordan @NYJ ($3,100)
Houston Texans @NYJ ($4,000)
It is becoming cliche at this point…but it’s your weekly recommendation to start whoever is playing against the New York Jets. Houston is a relatively soft match up for opposing passers, ranking 27th against quarterbacks…but those quarterbacks aren’t named Zachary Kapono Wilson. In his defense, Wilson is a much better QB than Tim Boyle, so I am glad to see him get the starting gig back for the Jets, and with him back under centre it won’t be as good a fantasy day for the Texans DST…but it will still be pretty tasty. Atlanta’s defense put up their best fantasy performance of the season last time out against Gang Green…don’t be surprised to see Houston do the same on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars @CLE ($3,600)
This may feel slightly contrarian, and I have absolutely no problem if you want to take the DST on the other side of the ball in this one at $600 cheaper – but I simply can’t resist a defense going up against Dorian Thomson-Robinson or Joe Flacco. Jacksonville haven’t scored a defensive touchdown since back in week 7 but look for that to change against a Browns offense that will be reeling after back-to-back defeats on the road to the Rams and Broncos. Jacksonville are a soft matchup for QBs and wideouts, but with DRT or Flacco throwing the ball to a receiving corps potentially missing Amari Cooper, I’m not worried. It’s a risky play, but the Jags DST could leave the Dawg Pound with their tails held high.
Also consider Cleveland Browns v JAX ($3,000) & Denver Broncos @LAC ($2,800)
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Image Credit: Bob Donnan – USA TODAY Sports
