Moving onto Week 16 of the 2023 season, and we are going to give you some DraftKings bargain bin plays for the week. These are plays that are on the ultra-value/ GPP contrarian side. So generally avoid these plays in cash game lineups, but in GPPs- especially big fields go for it!
You can find all of our DFS content here, and be ready for the week.
Nick Mullens v DET ($5,300)
After tossing 4 interceptions in a week 13 loss at home to Chicago, followed by 63 scoreless passing yards in a 3-0 victory over the Raiders – the Passtronaut Joshua Dobbs was very much brought back down to earth, being benched in favour of back-up signal-caller Nick Mullens. The 7-year veteran’s last notable appearance in the league was back in 2020, starting 8 times for the 49ers after then-starter Jimmy Garoppolo missed a majority of the season with multiple ankle injuries. Mullen’s first start as a Viking was a bit of a wild one, with the UDFA out of Southern Miss throwing for over 300 yards to go alongside his 2 scores and 2 interceptions, as the Vikings lost out in overtime on the road in Cincinnati. Mullens looked competent under-centre and appeared to have an instant rapport with 1st round receiver Jordan Addison, connecting with the rookie on all 6 of his targets for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns. Minnesota now hosts divisional rivals Detroit with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread – but against a Lions defense ranked 29th against quarterbacks and giving up just shy of 250 yards per game to the position, Mullens is a great spot start for your lineups.
C.J. Beathard @TB ($5,100)
Trevor Lawrence is yet to practise on the week after entering the league’s concussion protocol, following a particularly heavy hit sustained in the Jags final drive in their week 15 loss at home to the Ravens. With T-Law still suffering from a lingering ankle injury that he picked up against Cincinnati back in week 13, all signs point to Jacksonville’s franchise quarterback sitting out of their in-state trip to face the NFC South leaders, Tampa Bay. If Lawrence does indeed miss Sunday’s game, it will be the man who relieved Nick Mullens of his job in San Francisco, C.J. Beathard, that will lead the Jaguars as they look to snap a 3-game losing streak and stay atop the AFC South. The Bucs are a favourable matchup for opposing QBs, allowing on average 282 yards to the position, with only the hapless L.A. Chargers allowing more yards to signal callers on the season. Beathard was clean when he stepped in for T-Law against the Bengals 3 weeks ago, completing 90% of his attempts – there is a sneaky upside for C.J. if all the Jags receivers are healthy. As of 6pm Saturday Trevor Lawrence has cleared the league’s concussion protocol & looks set to start in Tampa – Taylor Heinicke v IND ($4,800) is a pivot option
Roschon Johnson ($4,800) / D’Onta Foreman ($4,600) / Khalil Herbert ($4,600) v AZ
This just might be my most cop-out pick of the season…and I’m sorry, but what I do firmly believe is that someone in the Chicago Bears backfield is going to have a great fantasy week as they welcome the Arizona Cardinals and their 32nd rank run defense to Soldier Field this Sunday. The Bears trio ran the ball 17 times last time out in the OT loss to the Browns, with Herbert and Foreman both seeing 6 carries to Johnson’s 5. On those 17 attempts, the three backs combined for a total of 38 yards and no touchdowns; hardly inspiring for fantasy managers heading into week 16, however…despite seeing the fewest Carries, Roschon Johnson contributed 36 of those yards, including a 22-yard breakaway run just before the half. This Cardinals run defense were obliterated by Christian McCaffrey last time out, giving up 187 combined yards and 3 touchdowns to the 49ers lead back – I am fully 100% aware none of these Bears RBs are on the same level as CMC, but even 50% of what McCaffrey did last week would be a nice return on a sub-$5000 investment.
Tyjae Spears v SEA ($4,700)
As a Derrick Henry owner in my main League of Record, it doesn’t fill me with Christmas cheer recommending Tyjae Spears this weekend. Henry’s rushing performance last week against the Houston Texans was historically bad. I mentioned in my Slate-Breakers column for week 15 that Henry’s career numbers when facing Houston was an average of 115 yards and a touchdown on each of the 12 occasions he’s gone head-to-head with the Titans’ divisional rivals, and could be in for another record-breaking day. King Henry did indeed set a record last Sunday…by becoming the first player ever to see at least 20 touches and post less than 15 yards (Credit to Ryan McDowell for that great stat). Henry’s stellar output of late has been in games Tennessee are expected to win, with the Titans heading into their home tilt against Seattle as 3 point underdogs – this one has Tyjae Spears Game written all over it. The rookie out of Tulane has been at his most productive when the Titans play from behind, most recently against the Colts and in Tennessee’s win over Miami – both of which the 3rd round pick put up double digit fantasy points, despite not finding the endzone. Expect Ryan Tannehill to dump it off the Spears plenty as the Titans play catch-up, and after already being eliminated from playoff contention, HC Mike Vrabel may want to give his young back some more game time to see if he truly is the heir apparent to the ageing King Henry.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. @NYJ ($4,500)
The sixth-round pick out of the University of Kentucky saw a season high 10 rushing opportunities last week on the road against the Rams, thanks in no small part to the absence of Brian Robinson who sat out due to a hamstring injury. Robinson looks set to miss another week after being a DNP through Thursday, giving Rodriguez another chance to lead the backfield against a much more generous New York Jets run defense. The former Wildcat could only muster 35 yards on his 10 carries in the Commanders loss at SoFi, but expect far greater efficiency against a Jets unit allowing nearly 140 yards per game to opposing rushers – ranked 28th in the league. Antonio Gibson will see a handful of carries as well as most of the targets out of the backfield, but at only $4500 and in a matchup the Commanders could actually win, Rodriguez represents good value on the slate.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba @TEN ($4,500)
The Seahawks snapped one streak on MNF, and kept another very much alive with a last-gasp 20-17 victory over Philadelphia. The victory ended a 4-game losing run for Seattle but also extended their winning run over the Eagles to 7 games, stretching all the way back to November 2008. 1st round rookie pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the hero, hauling in the go-ahead touchdown on a 29 yard reception from backup QB Drew Lock with only 28 seconds left on the game clock. The catch was only JSN’s 4th on the night and left him with 48 yards and a score for his efforts. The Seahawks now travel to Tennessee to face a Titans defense ranked 28th against wideouts, giving up 175 yards per game to the position on average. Geno Smith should return from a groin injury that forced him to sit last week, giving a bump to the value of all Seattle pass-catchers this week. JSN is very much still the third option behind Metcalf and Lockett, but against this pass-funnel Titans defense, there should be plenty to go around for the rookie to deliver on his price tag.
Parker Washington @TB ($3,800)
There are 2 things I know about Jaguars 6th round rookie wide receiver Parker Washington; firstly he is from the festively named Sugar Land, Texas (also the childhood home of Saints QB Derek Carr), but more importantly that he has 15 targets in Jacksonville’s last 3 games, putting him firmly on my fantasy radar. With Zay Jones looking doubtful for the trip south to Tampa, Washington would operate as the WR2, opposite the field to Calvin Ridley. Ridley will see a majority of looks from whoever is under centre come Sunday afternoon with Washington and tight end Evan Engram battling it out for the second read on passing downs. Tampa are ceding 194 yards per game to opposing wideouts, giving Washington the ideal opportunity to improve on his career high 64 receiving yards posted against the Bengals 3 weeks ago. Check the status of Zay Jones first, but Washington is a high upside dart throw this Sunday.
Jonathan Mingo v GB ($3,600)
Over the last 3 weeks, Panthers rookie wide receiver Jonathan Mingo ranks T14th on total targets, seeing 24 looks from fellow newcomer and first pick of the 2023 draft, Bryce Young. Mingo’s uptick in involvement is encouraging, even if it is coming on one of the worst offenses in the league. Carolina ranks 29th in passing on the season, ahead of only the Jets, Steelers and Cardinals, and have scored a measly 11 touchdowns through the air. Mingo is yet to find the endzone in his rookie campaign but going up against a Packers defense that just allowed over 380 yards and 4 touchdowns to Baker Mayfield, this could be his time. With nothing to play for but pride, the Panthers may look to youth and see what they have for next season in their rookies – expect Mingo to continue to be the team’s top target from here on in.
Tyler Conklin v WAS ($3,200)
I wrote last week how Jets tight end Tyler Conklin entered week 15 ranked 12th at the position in total targets, 11th in receptions and 20th in fantasy points; well coming into week 16 the 6-year veteran out of Central Michigan still ranks 12th in targets, 11th in receptions and 20th in total fantasy points on the year…oh yeah, and he still hasn’t found the endzone. Bargains at the position on the slate are few and far between this weekend, so Conklin once again gets the nod as a potential value for your rosters. The 18 yards last weekend were disappointing, the 4 receptions acceptable, and the 7 targets encouraging – the Commanders have allowed more passing touchdowns than any other team in the league with 32 – is this the week Conklin finally finds pay-dirt…let’s hope for a Christmas miracle.
Chig Okonkwo v SEA ($3,100)
I am aware I that I am recommending a tight end who plays for a team who have thrown the 8th fewest yards this season, scored only 11 touchdowns through the air, and now look set to be relying on Ryan Tannehill calling the plays…but as I already mentioned, we’re scraping the barrel at the position this week. Okonkwo ranks 16th in total targets, and like Conklin is yet to find the endzone this season. The Seahawks kept Dallas Goedert relatively quiet last time out, but were torched by George Kittle and Jake Ferguson in the weeks prior. Outside of Nuk Hopkins, Okonkwo poses the biggest threat in the Titans passing game…just don’t get your hopes up too much with this one.
New York Jets v WAS ($3,100)
The Washington Commanders are on a 5-game losing streak, and but for a Joey Slye FG back in week 9 in Foxborough, it could have been 8 on the bounce for Ron Rivera’s men. Sam Howell led the league in passing over the first half of the season, more of a symptom of playing catch-up due to their terrible defense than a reflection of the sophomore’s attacking prowess – but things haven’t gone as well for the former Tar Heel in recent weeks. Howell was benched for the final 15 minutes of Washington’s latest defeat, against the Rams in L.A. but will retain his starting position (for this week at least) as the Commanders head to East Rutherford to face the No.1 pass defense in the league…the New York Jets. Don’t be put off by the drubbing at the hands of Miami last weekend in South Beach; this is still an elite unit who should get back to business against a toothless Washington offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v JAX ($2,600)
This pick could go from good to great should Trevor Lawrence not clear the league’s concussion protocol in time, forcing the Jags to turn to back-up QB C.J. Beathard. The Bucs boast the 10th best run defense in the league, a formidable task facing Jags lead-back Travis Etienne Jr. who has only ran over 4 yards per carry once in his last 9 outings. With a banged up receiver corps and a second-string signal caller under centre, the Bucs are a very attractive play at home in a game they are favoured to win. At only $2600, they are one of my favourite DSTs on the slate and a potential bargain figuring in the price.
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Image Credit: Steven Bisig – USA TODAY Sports
