It’s finally here- Week 16 of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Justin Fields v AZ ($7,100)
It was hard sledding for Chicago’s “is he/isn’t he” franchise quarterback last weekend, with Fields delivering his worst fantasy performance since his return from injury in week 11. The overtime defeat in Cleveland saw the former Buckeye post a season low 47.5% completion rate, successfully connecting with his receivers on only 19 of 40 attempts. Two interceptions, two fumbles and only 30 yards on the ground saw Fields put up his worst full-game fantasy performance of the season…but this weekend he gets to face the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are the perfect remedy for any struggling QB giving up an average of 21 fantasy points per game to oppositions signal callers, and are fresh off being dismantled by Brock Purdy for 242 yards and 4 touchdowns. Arizona also ranks dead last against the run, so expect Fields to get plenty of use out of those legs at Soldier Field on Sunday evening. I wrote in my Bargain Bin column this week about my love for the Chicago backfield, but it may just be their quarterback that leads the way in the run game this weekend. Look for Fields to bounce back in a big way after last week’s disappointment.
Baker Mayfield v JAX ($6,000)
Speaking of QBs who threw for 4 touchdowns last week…let’s talk about my favourite quarterback on the slate; Mr Baker Mayfield. Five years after being selected by Cleveland with the first pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, it finally feels like Baker has found his home in Central Florida. Mayfield is not an elite QB by any stretch of the imagination, but what he brings to this Bucs team just works. Tampa Bay’s 34-20 victory over Green Bay at Lambeau was their 3rd win in a row, putting the Bucs top of the NFC after New Orleans and Atlanta both suffered defeats. This is a team that is finding its rhythm, and after 4 consecutive games with a turnover, Mayfield has now gone back-to-back weeks without throwing a pick or fumbling…scoring 7 touchdowns in the process. The Jaguars are allowing opposition QBs to pass on them for an average of 271 yards per game, 2nd worst in the entire league. With Mayfield finally starting to connect with Chris Godwin in recent weeks, all whilst having Mike Evans and Raschaad White at his disposal, I’m expecting him to have another multi-touchdown week and top 10 fantasy performance at the position.
Also consider Dak Prescott @MIA ($7,900) & Tua Tagovailoa v DAL ($7,800)
Derrick Henry v SEA ($6,800)
I’m sorry. I’m sorry, I’m sorry…I’m sorry. Last week I confidently recommended Derrick Henry as a must start against a Houston Texans team that he has dominated over his career to the mark of 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns, and once again The King put in a historical display against his old nemesis…historically bad that is. Henry’s 10 total yards were the first time in NFL history that a player has seen 20 or more opportunities and gained less than 15 yards, the first time EVER. It would be easy to write of Henry after his week 15 performance, but as the saying goes “the past is a place to learn from, not to live in”…so let’s just forget about last week and remember that the King now gets to face a Seahawks defense ranked 28th against the run, allowing opposing back to rush for an average of 130 yards per game. If this truly is to be the final curtain for Derrick Henry, the Titans will want to give their 8th year pro every opportunity to go out on a high, with their veteran only 116 yards shy of his 5th 1,000 yard rushing season for the team. It’s the time of year for fairytales, let’s hope we get one in Tennessee this weekend.
Bijan Robinson v IND ($6,100)
Oh look, it’s our second Ghost of Fantasy Past come to haunt us. Bijan Robinson was another pick from week 15 that I had immeasurable confidence in…so of course his performance would be even worse than Derrick Henry’s. Robinson had only 8 opportunities compared to Henry’s 20, but fantasy managers wouldn’t have cared less as the Falcons first round rookie selection posted just 14 total yards…and lost a fumble. Unsurprisingly Bijan’s 1.4 fantasy points was the worst output of his short career (I’m not counting the game where he was clearly injured) and left anyone who rostered him counting their losses and looking forward to week 16. Well week 16 is upon us and just like with King Henry, I am all in once again on Bijan Robinson as Atlanta welcomes the Colts to Georgia. Indianapolis are allowing an average of 145 yards per game to opposing RBs and have struggled against pass-catchers out of the backfield this season. There’s only one thing that can stop Bijan this week, and it isn’t the Colts defense – fingers crossed Robinson is on Arthur Smith’s Nice List this Christmas and Tyler Allgeier doesn’t end up being The Grinch Who Stole Touchdowns.
James Conner @CHI ($5,900)
After a somewhat slow start after returning from a knee injury back in week 10, James Conner has gotten back up to his early season pace that saw him sit at the RB9 through 3 weeks of the season. After 3 scoreless weeks, the 7th year veteran out of Pittsburgh has had back-to-back games with a touchdown, adding 191 yards on the ground in the process. Conner’s performances against the Steelers and 49ers rank him T3 with Raschaad White at the position over a back’s most recent 2-game spell…yet here he is priced up at only $5900 on the slate. The Cardinals will be missing leading wide receiver Marquise Brown for the trip to Chicago, and as red hot as sophomore TE Trey McBride has been, he can’t do it all himself. The matchup for Conner is favourable, with the Bears ranked 20th against opposition backs, and as 4 point underdogs on the road, expect Arizona’s lead back to see plenty of opportunity on the ground and through the air as the Cardinals attempt to keep up at Soldier Field.
Also consider Tony Pollard @MIA ($6,700) & Breece Hall v WAS ($6,100)
Chris Godwin v JAX ($6,200)
Whisper it quietly…but is Chris Godwin back? Over the last 2 weeks the 7th year wideout is T-2nd on targets, 2nd in receptions and 3rd in total receiving yards. Godwin sits at the WR9 over the last fortnight, only kept out of the top 3 by the same issue that has plagued his production levels all season…his lack of touchdowns. The 27-year old PPR machine enters week 16 with still only 1 receiving score to his name, back in week 8 in the Bucs road defeat to Buffalo. Godwin will have every opportunity to double his season TD tally as Tampa Bay welcomes near neighbours Jacksonville to the Raymond James for an all Florida clash this Sunday afternoon. The Jags rank 25th against opposing wideouts and have surrendered 23 touchdowns and almost 3,800 yards through the air this season. I love all the offensive pieces for the Bucs this week, and at a whopping $1400 cheaper than teammate Mike Evans, Godwin is the wideout I want in my roster this Sunday.
DeAndre Hopkins v SEA ($6,100)
Not too far behind Godwin in total targets over the last 2 weeks is another veteran wideout proving there is life in their ageing legs yet, DeAndre Hopkins. Like the Titans, Nuk has had a season littered with inconsistencies – his 2 best fantasy performances on the season were directly followed or preceded by his 2 worst, a fair reflection of the 11th-year receivers entire year. After amassing over 200 total yards and 2 scores in weeks 13 and 14, it was a drastic plummet back to Earth against his former team as Hopkins could only haul in 2 of his 9 targets against Houston for a mere 21 yards. Rookie QB Will Levis looks set to miss Sunday’s showdown against Seattle, elevating former starter Ryan Tannehill back to the top of the Titans depth chart as they look for their 5th home victory of the year. Confidence at the quarterback position may be low, but even with Tannehill under centre, Hopkins will continue to be peppered with targets and lead the receiving corps once again. This may be a tough watch, so just put him in your lineups and check the box scores once the game is over.
Garrett Wilson v WAS ($5,800)
On the subject of tough watches…bearing witness to DeAndre Hopkins playing with Ryan Tannehill will be like settling down on Christmas Day with your new slippers, a glass of sherry in one hand, the remnants of the After Eights in the other, all ready to stick on your favourite Christmas movie compared to having to suffer the spectacle of Garrett Wilson attempting to catch “passes” from Trevor Siemian. This pick is purely volume based, with the sophomore receiver having nearly three times as many targets as any other wideout on the roster. Wilson has more receptions than WR2 Allen Lazard and WR3 Xavier Gipson have combined targets. I cannot wait to see what kind of numbers the former Buckeye will put up with Aaron Rodgers next season, but for now fantasy managers have to settle for however many yards Wilson can volume his way to against the 31st ranked passing defense of the Washington Commanders. Wilson is a lock for double digit targets, if he can catch 50% of those, he could be in for an excellent fantasy day against this very generous Commanders secondary.
Also consider D.K. Metcalf @TEN ($6,700) & Amari Cooper @HOU ($6,400)
Trey McBride @CHI ($5,700)
Trey McBride’s stat line in the first 7 games with Zach Ertz on the squad – 15 receptions for 170 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Trey McBride’s stat line in his last 7 games without Zach Ertz on the squad – 51 receptions for 542 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The sophomore tight end out of Colorado State has been the overall TE2 since becoming the starter for the Cardinals back in week 8. In the 7 week period, McBride sits only behind David Njoku (more on him in a moment) in total points scored, behind only George Kittle in total yards, and leads the position in receptions – he also had a bye week in that time. McBride has been phenomenal in the 2nd half of the season and has established himself as the number one target for Kyler Murray in this Arizona passing offense. Week 16 sees Arizona travel to Soldier Field to face a Bears defense ranked 28th against the position and giving up a league high 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. He’s the 3rd most expensive TE on the slate but could easily outscore both LaPorta and Hockenson – he’s my TE1 on the week.
David Njoku @HOU ($5,300)
As I mentioned above, there’s only one man who has out-scored the red hot Trey McBride at the position since week 7, and that man is the Cleveland Browns David Njoku. The former 1st round draft pick has seen a league leading 75 targets in his last 7 outings and has posted back-to-back fantasy games of over 25 PPR points…he is unstoppable. The rapport the former Miami Hurricane has established with Joe Flacco is undeniable, with Njokue hauling in 18 of his 28 targets for 212 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 3 games since the Super Bowl MVP quarterback took charge in Cleveland. Flacco has been limited with a calf injury this week but looks set to suit up on Sunday, and against a Houston Texans defense ranked 28th against tight ends, allowing over 60 yards per week to the positions…all signs point to Njoku having another monster game.
Also consider Jake Ferguson @MIA ($4,900) & Cole Kmet v AZ ($4,400)
Green Bay Packers @CAR ($3,900)
At this stage of the season I would be as well copying and pasting the arguments from last week to support whatever team is coming up against the Carolina Panthers on the upcoming slate. To their credit, Carolina did manage to pull off a victory last week, their second of the season, with a win over the Atlanta Falcons…but only did so thanks to 3 Eddy Pineiro field goals in a turgid 9-7 affair. The Panthers offense have not scored a touchdown through the air since week 11 with only Chuba Hubbard and Eddy Pineiro putting any points on the board since the 3rd quarter versus Dallas over a month ago. As a whole, Carolina ranks 31st on the season behind only the New York Jets – Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders lately but should have a great bounce back fantasy day in Charlotte this Sunday.
Washington Commanders @NYJ ($3,700)
Speaking of the New York Football Jets…it’s the turn of the Washington Commanders to pad their stat lines as they travel to East Rutherford to take on Gang Green with both teams already eliminated from postseason contention. Entering week 16 the Jets rank dead last in total offensive yards, passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns…and will be starting their 3rd string quarterback for the visit of Washington this Sunday. This matchup has the 2nd lowest O/U on the week at 37 points and should lend itself to a positive game script for the Commanders defense. The Jets have turned the ball over in every game this season barring one (their week 6 win over the Eagles) – start the Commanders DST with confidence this weekend.
Also consider Indianapolis Colts @ATL ($3,800) & Tampa Bay Buccaneers v JAX ($2,600)
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Image Credit: Jim Brown – USA TODAY Sports
