It’s finally here- Week 18 of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Dak Prescott @WAS ($8,000)
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Dallas Cowboys, back-to-back losses on the road against AFC East giants Buffalo and Miami looked to have de-railed their hopes of being crowned NFC East Champions, but a very narrow 20-19 victory over Detroit last time out – coupled with the Eagles 3rd defeat in their last 4 – sees Dallas control their own destiny heading in to the final week of the regular season. It’s simple for the Cowboys; win in Washington and they are NFC East Champs…sure they could do it with a loss if Philly somehow falls to the Giants, but America’s Team will be looking to clinch on their own terms. Dak appeared to have gotten himself out of a mini 3-game slump in the win over Detroit last Sunday, completing 26 of his 38 attempts for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns, his first 300+ yard game since week 12. Prescott threw for 331 yards and 4 scores in that Thanksgiving game, and the 8th-year veteran will be just as thankful this week as he was back in November, that he and his receivers are going up against the very team they carved up on Turkey Day, the Washington Commanders. Washington ranks dead last against opposing QBs and wide receivers – expect Dallas to wrap up the division in style and for Prescott to build on his league leading touchdown tally.
Geno Smith @AZ ($6,100)
Unlike Dallas, the Seahawks are in no position to win their division, but they can join San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams are the third NFC West team to head to the postseason should they win in Arizona and the Packers taste defeat at Soldier Field. Seattle QB Geno Smith hasn’t quite matched his career-best season of 2022, but the former 2nd round pick is averaging 245 passing yards per game, only slightly behind the 251 YPG he threw for last year. The difference this season has been touchdowns, with Smith only connecting with his receivers 18 times so far heading into week 18…12 off his tally just 12 months ago. Geno has only 6 multi-touchdown games on the year so far, however I fully expect him to make that 7 as Seattle heads to the desert to face the very touchdown friendly Arizona Cardinals defense. The Cardinals are giving up an average of 1.8 touchdowns through the air per game, the 3rd worst in the league, and with Seattle being 3 point favourites in the highest O/U on the slate – there should be plenty of fantasy points for Geno in this one. He’s got top-5 potential at the position this week, take advantage of the great price.
Also consider Justin Fields v GB ($7,200) & Jordan Love @CHI ($6,600)
Rachaad White @CAR ($7,600)
I’ve lost track how many times I’ve written Rachaad White’s name in this column over the season, and though his price may be an eye-watering $7600 (his joint highest mark on the year); I am rolling the dice one more time on this years RB6(!). The sophomore back out of Arizona State has been phenomenal in 2023, posting 1,446 total yards from scrimmage, catching 60 of his 66 targets and scoring 9 touchdowns in his 16 games so far. The Bucs control their own destiny, knowing a win in Charlotte will see them crowned NFC East Champions and with it punch their ticket to the playoffs. Needing a win in an in-division road game is always a daunting prospect, unless your opponents are the 2-14 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers rank 31st against the run and just allowed Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne to rush for over 100 yards with 2 scores in the Jags 26-0 shutout win last weekend. White needs 85 yards on the ground to go over 1,000 for the season so expect Baker Mayfield to hand the ball to his back early and often. Only CMC, Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara have more receptions at the RB position than White – he’s a lock for at least 4 receptions, giving him an excellent floor with a very high ceiling.
D’Andre Swift @NYG ($6,800)
Heading into week 13 the Philadelphia Eagles were 10-1, in the drivers seat for the No.1 seed in the NFC and atop most analysts lists of potential Super Bowl Champions…what a difference a month makes. 5 weeks (and 4 losses) later, Philly sit 2nd in the NFC East behind a resurgent Dallas Cowboys team, knowing only a win will do against the Giants if they are to stand any chance of winning the division. Lead rusher D’Andre Swift is one of the more ‘game scripted’ backs in the league; when the Eagles are winning, he’s great – when they’re losing, he’s not. Swift has delivered 4 of his worst performances on the season in the last 5 weeks of the year…all in games the Eagles lost – the one outlier in that time (and the game they actually won) came against the New York Giants, who they face off against once more on Sunday evening. Philly heads to the Big Apple as 6 point favourites, and with the G-Men allowing over 140 yards per game to opposing rushers, I’m expecting Swift to put up his first 100-yard rushing game since week 3. The volume will be there for Swift giving him a very solid floor with multi-touchdown upside.
Kenneth Walker III @AZ ($6,500)
Walker hasn’t quite been his explosive self after returning from an oblique injury in week 14 that saw the sophomore back out of Michigan State miss Seattle’s games on the road in San Francisco and Dallas. After a blistering start to the season that saw him rank as the RB5 through week 10, Walker’s performances have only been good enough to place him as the RB18 since his return. Despite Walker’s apparent struggles, he undoubtedly remains the guy in this Seahawks backfield, out-carrying rookie Zach Charbonnet 45-8 since his week 14 return. The opportunities for KW3 will be there provided Seattle are in a positive game-script, and there are few more positive than facing off against the 4-12 Arizona Cardinals. Coming off a blockbuster 35-31 victory over the Eagles, confidence should be high in Glendale – but this is a defense ranked dead last against the run, giving up over 150 yards to opposing rushers each week. The Seahawks are a 3 point favourite on the road and I expect them to cover the spread – Walker is a great start at only $6500.
Also consider James Cook v SEA ($6,100) & Zamir White v DEN ($6,000)
CeeDee Lamb @WAS ($9,300)
If you’d have told me back in week 5 that CeeDee Lamb would be the Wide Receiver 1 on the season come January, I would have called the relevant authorities to get you the help you clearly needed. Well, here we are entering week 18 and the man sitting at the top of the (slightly wilting) Christmas Tree is none other than the Cowboys No.88, Mr CeeDee Lamb. The 4th year receiver has been unstoppable since Dallas’ week 6 victory in LA, putting up over 100 receiving yards in 7 of his 11 outings following the Cowboys win over the Chargers. Lamb shows no signs of stopping either, recording a career high 227 receiving yards on 13 receptions last week against Detroit…simply put he is the Dallas passing game. Lamb leads the league in targets (168) and receptions (122), and sits only 66 yards behind Tyreek Hill’s 1,717 receiving yards. Brandin Cooks, the team’s WR2 has 73 targets on the season…CeeDee Lamb has 73 targets since week 12. The Cowboys head to the capital knowing a win will see them crowned NFC East Champions, all that stands in their way is the 4-12 Washington Commanders and their 32nd ranked passing defense. Lamb could easily surpass 100-yards in the first half alone – he’s an absolute smash play this weekend.
D.K. Metcalf @AZ ($7,200)
Since week 13, only 2 men have more receiving touchdowns than the aforementioned CeeDee Lamb – San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel, and Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf ranks as the WR4 over the last 5 games hauling in 22 passes for 426 yards and 5 scores – the former 2nd rounder exploding as soon as the calendars flipped over to December. D.K. hasn’t dominated his teams target share like Lamb – seeing 33 looks from Geno Smith in the last month compared to 39 for Tyler Lockett and 31 for the rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba…but his 19.4 yards per reception are elite at the position, bettered only by George Pickens for receivers with 20+ grabs. Following my recommendations of both Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III, my Metcalf pick only cements how much I like the Seattle Seahawks heading into this must-win clash in Arizona. $7200 is D.K.’s highest mark of the season, but his consistency is what makes him a stand out pick this week against a middle of the pack Cardinals pass defense. Expect at least one big play from Seattle’s lead receiver this weekend.
Calvin Ridley @TEN ($6,500)
The Jacksonville Jaguars should make the playoffs, entering the final week of the regular season they have an 81% chance of appearing in the postseason, but they will do so as AFC South Champions should they get the win over the Titans on the road in Tennessee. As has been the case for the last month, Trevor Lawrence enters the weekend with a designation and is questionable to play – he is considered a true game time decision for Sunday afternoon’s game but should be good to go after missing week 17’s shutout victory over Carolina. With Lawrence back under centre, Calvin Ridley returns to fringe WR1 territory after his disappointing performance against the Panthers, hauling in only 4 passes for 39 scoreless yards from backup QB C.J. Beathard. The Titans are playing purely for pride and will offer little in the way of resistance to Jacksonville’s title push – T-Law should make short work of Tennessee’s 27th ranked pass defense with Ridley set to be the main beneficiary. At $6500, Ridley is a safe start should Lawrence be good to go.
Also consider Mike Evans @CAR ($7,400) & Terry McLaurin v DAL ($5,500)
Evan Engram @TEN ($5,400)
Calvin Ridley may end up being the main beneficiary should Trevor Lawrence make his return, but don’t forget about the pass catcher with the most receptions on this team – good ol’ Evan Engram. Engram doesn’t just have the most receptions on the Jags, he has the most receptions at the tight end position in the entire league. His 105 grabs on the year are T-5th in the NFL with A.J. Brown and trails only CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen. The Titans rank No.1 against the tight end…but that doesn’t concern me one bit when it comes to Engram. The former 1st round draft pick is a pivotal part of this Jags passing offense, and in a “must win” game, Engram will be right up there with Calvin Ridley in targets. He’s pricey at $5400, but no tight end on the slate should see more targets than Double-E.
Jake Ferguson @WAS ($4,900)
Despite what you may think after looking at the box score for Dallas’ week 17 victory over Detroit, not every single pass can go to CeeDee Lamb. Lamb’s 17 targets are an anomaly…sure the league’s No.1 wide receiver will see plenty of looks against the Commanders – but Dak can’t throw to him on every play, so expect the No.2 option in the passing offense to get his slice of the pie against the NFL’s worst pass D this weekend. Through 17 weeks Ferguson is the clear second read behind Lamb with 65 receptions on his 96 targets for 695 yards and 5 scores. The sophomore tight end out of Wisconsin has been held in check over his last 2 outings – look for him to bounce back against the very porous Commanders defense on Sunday.
Also consider Trey McBride v SEA ($6,000) & Gerald Everett v KC ($3,900)
Dallas Cowboys @WAS ($4,100)
The Cowboys DST are the most expensive option on the slate for 2 reasons:
- They are really good
- Washington’s offense is really bad
Dallas heads to the capital knowing a win will see them crowned NFC East Champions, and whilst I expect them to completely steam-roller the Commanders with their offense…even if they don’t, their top-5 defense will do more than enough to give them the win they need. The Commanders are on a 7-game losing streak and have only put up over 20 points once in their last 8…against the equally hapless New York Jets. Jacoby Brisset should be in-line to start for Washington in their season finale, reducing the likelihood of interceptions – but don’t overthink this one, Dallas’ DST will be an excellent option this Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars @TEN ($3,200)
If you’re searching for a top-tier DST option but can’t quite pay up for the Cowboys, look no further than the Jacksonville Jaguars as they go on the road to Nashville to face off against the Titans. Tennessee’s season is over and there are significant question marks on who leads this team next season, both on and off the field. Current Head Coach Mike Vrabel has already ruled out rookie QB Will Levis, paving the way for veteran Ryan Tannehill to make his 63rd (and likely final) start for the franchise. Sunday could also see the sun set on 8th-year running back Derrick Henry’s time as a Titan, but with King Henry already securing another 1,000 yard rushing season – don’t expect to see him on the field too often. Tennessee is a juicy enough matchup for opposing DSTs at the best of times – against their backups…the Jags should feast.
Also consider New York Jets @NE ($3,700) & Kansas City Chiefs @LAC ($3,300)
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Image Credit: Dale Zanine – USA TODAY Sports
