Moving onto Week 3 of the 2023 season, and we are going to give you some DraftKings bargain bin plays for the week. These are plays that are on the ultra-value/ GPP contrarian side. So generally avoid these plays in cash game lineups, but in GPPs- especially big fields go for it!
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C.J. Stroud @JAX ($5,300)
In his first two weeks as an NFL quarterback Stroud has attempted a staggering 91 passes. Third only to Matt Stafford with 93 and league leader Mac Jones who has thrown 96 times in the Patriots opening matchups. In his home debut against the Colts in week two, Stroud not only tagged on an additional 138 passing yards to his week one stat line, he also added his first and second TDs as a professional signal caller. Facing a Jags defense that gave up 223 yards to fellow rookie Anthony Richardson in week one and 305 yards to Patrick Mahomes at home last week, Stroud is a strong value play at $5300 this week.
Desmond Ridder @DET ($5,000)
Ridder is the polar opposite to CJ Stroud in terms of passing attempts through the Falcons first two outings. Ridder however is also polar opposite in wins as he and the Falcons sit 2-0 atop the NFC South after running out victors (pun very much intended) over the Panthers and Packers. Atlanta have so far ran 71 rushing plays on the season, attempting just 50 passing plays. Only the Zach Wilson led Jets have thrown the ball less. That said, week two saw a 78% increase in passing attempts for the sophomore quarterback and a road game in Detroit with an over/under of 46 points may force Arthur Smith to once again rely more on the arm of Ridder, and less on the legs of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
Jerome Ford v CLE ($4,800)
Oh boy, what a week for the Cleveland backfield. Starter and undisputed workhorse Nick Chubb suffered a horrible season ending injury in Pittsburgh on MNF as the Browns narrowly lost out to their divisional rivals 26-22. Chubb’s exit early in the 2nd quarter allowed second year back Jerome Ford the opportunity to step in and take majority of carries, with the sophomore rusher out of Cincinnati seeing 16 total opportunities compared to fellow backup Pierre Strong’s 2. It would be safe to assume Ford is now “the guy” in Cleveland, yes? Well, not exactly. Despite a well publicised falling out in 2022 and failing to agree a new contract, Kareem Hunt and the Browns have kissed and made up with 28-year old rejoining Kevin Stefanski’s offense on a 1-year $4m deal. This could be messy long term, but Ford should see majority of the work this week against the Titans, even if Hunt suits up.
Craig Reynolds v ATL ($4,400)
The Lions have been operating a 1-2 punch out of the backfield so far this season, with veteran David Montgomery seeing most of the first and second down work and 1st round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs operating as a change of pace back, as the 12th overall pick is “eased into” the offense. Montgomery exited Sunday’s game versus Seattle with a thigh bruise and looks set to miss a couple of weeks. Reynolds is the next man up in Detroit in a scheme that will continue to lean on the run game. Particularly if star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown sits out or is limited this weekend due to an as yet undisclosed injury. Reynolds saw 10 snaps after Montgomery left the game and could continue to see increased opportunities alongside Gibbs, particularly if Dan Campbell wants to continue Gibbs’ gradual acclimation to the league.
Kendre Miller @GB ($4,300)
It’s Miller Time baby! After sitting out the first two weeks of the season with a hamstring injury, the 3rd round rookie out of TCU looks set to make his NFL debut in the Saints’ visit to Lambeau on Sunday night. Alvin Kamara will continue to miss out as he serves the last of his three-game suspension, whilst Jamaal Williams looks set for a spell on the sidelines as he tends to a hamstring strain. Miller will compete with Tony Jones for touches, but the rookie should enter his debut game as the starter and see a majority of the carries. Miller has explosive upside and gets to take on a Packers defense that has ceded 333 in their opening two contests. All that said, be wary of “Tight End” Taysom Hill and his incessant ability to steal touches (and fantasy points) from whoever suits up at RB for the Saints.
Josh Reynolds v ATL ($4,200)
The second Lion named Reynolds to grace the column this week, wide receiver Josh Reynolds sees his stock continue to rise as he emerges as Jared Goff’s favourite target not named Amon-Ra St. Brown in the Detroit passing game. Reynolds has hauled in 9 of his 13 targets in the Lions opening two games for a very respectable 144 yards, with the 7-year wideout grabbing a pair of touchdowns in an OT loss to Seattle at Ford Field last time out. Reynolds should continue to see plenty looks from Goff against Atlanta, with his opportunities seeing a significant boost should St. Brown miss out or be limited by his injury. Reynolds has been priced up $900 since the season opener at the Super Bowl Champs, but still feels good value at $4200.
Adam Thielen @SEA ($3,900)
This pick is less “Bargain Bin” than “Bargain Dumpster”, but if you are really struggling to stay within budget on lineups this week, there are worse WR spot starts than the 33-year old veteran now applying his trade in Carolina. With Bryce Young under centre, it will be hard to fully trust any Panthers pass catcher. But Thielen is the #1 for this team after signing a 3-year $25m contract in the summer (no, there aren’t any typos there, I’ve double checked). Think of Thielen as a safety blanket for the Young as he finds his feet in a pro offense. The rookie signal caller has a favourable matchup in week 3 against a Seattle defense that has allowed both Matt Stafford and Jared Goff to pass for over 320 yards already this season and Thielen will get a significant number of looks. Particularly if the Panthers fall behind early to Geno and co who found their rhythm in week 2.
Tank Dell @JAX ($3,300)
Undoubtedly my favourite bargain play from last week’s slate. Dell makes this list for the second time running after a stellar performance against the Colts that saw the rookie put up 72 yards on 7 receptions, adding his first NFL touchdown in the process. The Texans and rookie QB CJ Stroud are not afraid to air it out it seems, and whilst Nico Collins has seen 20 targets in the team’s opening two games, it was Dell that led the team last time out with 10. Houston now travels to Florida to take on Jacksonville in week 3, and take on a Jags D that has given up 528 yards over the first two weeks. There will be plenty of yards to go around for the Texans pass catchers and Dell should continue to see a wealth of targets, yards and (fingers crossed) fantasy points.
Jake Ferguson @ARI ($3,600)
Despite seeing a regression in targets in week 2, Ferguson managed to match his yardage output from week 1 (albeit it was only 11 yards), but more importantly found the end zone for his first score of the season, as the Cowboys ran out 30-10 victors over the Jets. Dallas will look to continue their perfect start to the season and go 3-0 as they head to Glendale to face the 0-2 Cardinals. In 2022 no team gave up more touchdowns to Tight Ends than Arizona, with only Seattle allowing more fantasy points to the position. The Cardinals will look to stifle Tony Pollard and the potent Cowboys run game, this could allow some freedom for the Cowboys pass-catchers, specifically Ferguson and fellow TE Luke Schoonmaker – I expect Ferguson to be celebrating another TD this weekend.
Dalton Kincaid @WAS ($3,400)
Dalton Kincaid continues to live up to the pre-season hype after another impressive outing in the Bills home opener as they routed the Raiders. Josh Allen put on a clinic, completing 31 of his 37 attempts for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns, with rookie Kincaid hauling in 5 of his 6 targets, amassing 43 yards in the process. In week 3 Kincaid will look to further cement his place as the pass-catching option at TE for Buffalo against a Washington Commanders team who allowed Russell Wilson to throw for over 300 yards last time out. Dawson Knox has landed on the injury report tending to a back issue and has yet to practise at time of writing. If Knox did happen to sit this week, expect Kincaid to see even more work coming his way from Josh Allen.
Durham Smythe v DEN ($2,900)
The recommendation of Smythe this week stems less from his showings against the Chargers and Patriots, but more from Jaylen Waddle’s slow progression through the NFL’s concussion protocol. It is looking increasingly unlikely the electric third-year wideout will suit up for Miami’s home opener against the Broncos, leaving the door open for one of the Dolphin’s fringe wide receivers, or possibly Smythe to step up. On an offense that has thrown 75 times so far this season, nobody in Aqua outside of Waddle and Tyreek Hill has seen more targets than Smythe. He’s a sneaky play this week at $2900 offering a solid floor with touchdown upside.
New York Jets v NE ($2,800)
After a stratospheric week 1 against the Bills, all flights were cancelled as the Jets were well and truly left on the tarmac in week 2 putting up a goose egg in their 30-10 defeat to the Cowboys. This is a highly talented unit and a matchup here against the Patriots, in what is currently the lowest over/under of the week, points to Gang Green regressing back to the mean. Don’t expect a repeat of the 20 point performance from week 1, but in another all AFC East clash, the Jets are safe play at only $2800.
Indianapolis Colts @BAL ($2,400)
At $2400 this week, the Colts are only priced ahead of the Cardinals who host free scoring Dallas, and the Bears who travel to Arrowhead (yikes!), making them a very budget friendly option for a trip to Maryland to take on the Ravens. Baltimore, already missing JK Dobbins for the season, will also be without Justice Hill, leaving Gus Edwards to carry the load alongside his versatile QB Lamar Jackson. The passing game may also be hampered with Odell Beckham Junior yet to practise this week due to an ankle injury. This is still a potent offense, but it may be a little banged up heading into the weekend, making the Colts an interesting punt for under $2500.
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Image Credit: Brian Fluharty – USA TODAY Sports
