Moving onto Week 4 of the 2023 season, and we are going to give you some DraftKings bargain bin plays for the week. These are plays that are on the ultra-value/ GPP contrarian side. So generally avoid these plays in cash game lineups, but in GPPs- especially big fields go for it!
You can find all of our DFS content here, and be ready for the week.
C.J. Stroud v PIT ($5,600)
Stroud is the most exciting C.J. since Pamela Anderson in Baywatch and he once again presents excellent value at the quarterback position for your DraftKings lineups. The rookie is priced up only $300 from the trouncing of their divisional rivals in Jacksonville last week – that’s $1 for every yard he is averaging per contest so far this season…well, almost. The overall No.2 pick in this year’s draft is averaging 302 passing yards each week and now gets to take on a Steelers defense, at home, who were lit up for 324 yards by Jimmy G in their own backyard on MNF. Stroud is another strong start at only $5600 this week.
Jameis Winston v TB ($5,300)
It’s been a long time since Famous Jameis was eating W’s in Tampa Bay, but he’s one of the most competent back-ups in the league and will draw the start this week with Derek Carr still in the League’s concussion protocol. We’re 4 years removed from the former No.1 overall pick tossing 33 TDs, 30 INTs and over 5,000 yards but Winston can still provide managers with fantasy gold…as well as the odd interception. He’ll get to take on his old team at home in the dome with the Bucs giving up an average of 277 yards through the air to opposing QBs, 27th ranked in the league. At $5300 Jameis could be finger lickin’ good for your lineups.
Bryce Young ($5,200) or Andy Dalton ($5,100) v MIN
I have both Carolina signal callers in the final slot of the Bargains article this week, with either presenting great value against a Vikings defense that gave Justin Herbert his first career game of 400+ yards in week 3. Bryce Young is no Justin Herbert, but he has returned to full practise and looks set to regain his starters role from Andy Dalton. The Red Rocket is undoubtedly the better passer between the two Panthers, but Young offers excellent fantasy value with his legs. Adam Thielen has continued to show there’s life in the old dog yet and gives either of these QBs a real option for their first reads. Whoever gets the nod, I’m happy taking the shot.
Jaylen Warren @ HOU ($5,000)
Through the first three weeks of the season the 2-1, AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers have amassed exactly ZERO rushing touchdowns. Fantasy managers will be hoping change is on the horizon in week 4, as the Black and Gold head to Houston to take on the Texans and their very generous rush defense. Houston is allowing an average of 1.67 TDs to opposition running backs, so a get right game is on the cards for the Steelers rushing attack. Jaylen Warren continues to see his share of the work increase at the expense of Najee Harris, and with the second year back from Oklahoma State so far garnering 16 targets from Kenny Pickett so far this year, he continues to be the more valuable Steeler at the position in PPR formats.
Roschon Johnston @ HOU ($4,900)
The Bears offensive struggles continued in week 3 as they were blown away by the Chiefs at Arrowhead, with one of the biggest stars in the world watching on and enjoying the show. No, I’m not referring to Taylor Swift, but rather KC QB Patrick Mahomes, who got to spectate most of the second half as his team routed the hapless Bears 41-10. Despite another convincing defeat, Chicago can take some solace from the performances of rookie RB Roschon Johnson, with the 4th round selection from Texas continuing to be worked into the rushing rotation alongside Khalil Herbert. For the first time this season Johnson was given more attempts than Herbert, rushing at 4.8 ypc with the opportunities he was afforded. The thought of starting anyone on the Bears right now is not appealing, but against a Broncos defense that was decimated in week 3 by Miami’s running backs for over 375 total yards and 8 touchdowns…you can roll with Roschon.
Tyjae Spears v CIN ($4,700)
Are we beginning to see a changing of the guard in Tennessee? Derrick Henry is closing in on 2,000 career rush attempts, and for the first time in his 8 year stint at the Titans, King Henry may just be showing signs that he is indeed human and is finally starting to slow down. Henry is still averaging 78 total yards per game so far this season, not a complete disaster by any means – but the emergence of rookie Tyjae Spears and his 3-down skill set is worrisome for the fantasy value of the two-time NFL rushing leader. The 3rd round pick out of Tulane clearly has the trust of Mike Vrabel and the Titans coaching staff and will continue to eat into Henry’s workload, particularly in the passing game. With 10 targets through 3 games, Spears offers a PPR dart throw at the position and presents a huge upside if Henry needs to sit out snaps.
Adam Thielen v MIN ($4,500)
Thielen has been priced up an eye-watering $600 this week for the Panthers’ trip to Minnesota on the back of his 11 receptions for 145 yards and a score in last Sunday’s defeat to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the hefty bump, the 33-year old still only comes in at $4500, and should continue to serve as Carolina’s main target in the passing game. Thielen’s 14 targets in week 3 came from backup Andy Dalton, as rookie QB Bryce Young sat out with an ankle injury. Young looks poised to reclaim the starting role which may see a slight knock to the Panthers pass catchers, but Thielen still saw 9 targets in the week 2 loss to New Orleans. The Vikings rank dead last in points given up to opposing wideouts, so continue to ride the veteran regardless who starts at quarterback for Carolina.
Marvin Mims @ CHI ($3,900)
In his last 2 outings the talented Broncos rookie wide receiver is averaging 37.2 yards per catch. Whilst I am not even remotely suggesting these kinds of numbers are sustainable, Mims does look electric when he gets the ball in his hands and possesses true “big play” potential that could see him put up double digit fantasy points on any given play. Sean Payton will look to give Mims more looks against a Chicao defense that has bled 834 yards and 7 TDs to opposing quarterbacks in its opening 3 games. Mims is a dart throw, but at $3900 he could repay value on a single reception.
Quentin Johnston v LV ($3,700)
Pre-NFL draft, many analysts had compared TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston to the Chargers Mike Williams; clearly the scouts at SoFi have a type as the Bolts selected the 6’4” Johnston 21st overall with their first pick of the draft. With Mike Williams unfortunately suffering a season ending ACL tear in the Chargers week 3 victory over Minnesota, the man drafted to potentially replace him may get his chance to show what he can do earlier than anticipated. Rookie Johnston has only seen 8 targets on the year so far, but is in line for a vastly expanded role opposite Keenan Allen, the current league leader in receptions. The Chargers passing game has re-found its mojo this year under new OC Kellen Moore and Johnston has a huge opportunity moving forward to show why the team invested such high draft capital in him; at $3700 he’ll be in a high percentage of my lineups this week.
Josh Downs v LAR ($3,500)
After leading the Indianapolis Colts in targets in week 3, Josh Downs remains at a bargain price-tag of only $3500 in this week’s main slate. The 3rd round pick in this year’s draft saw a team high 12 looks from stand-in QB Gardner Minshew last week, as fellow rookie Anthony Richardson remained sidelined and in the League’s concussion protocol. Richardson should return to the starters role this weekend, and we may see Michael Pittman regain his place as the team’s top target, but Downs has shown he can play a volume role if required and will continue to see plenty of work even with the run friendly Richardson back under centre.
Dalton Kincaid v MIA ($3,200)
Let’s try this again shall we? I wrote in this column last week how I expected Dalton Kincaid to take the next step and have a breakout game against the Commanders. That turned into a stat line of 2 receptions for 3 yards, and a total of 2.3 fantasy points…”disappointing” doesn’t cover it. The rookie out of Utah gets a second chance from me this week as Buffalo hosts divisional rivals Miami in a matchup that has an O/U of 54 at the time of writing. The Dolphins are fresh off posting a 70 burger on the Broncos, whilst the Bills have posted back to back games of 37 and 38 points. I want as many pieces of this matchup as possible, and at $3200 Kincaid is a budget friendly buy into what could be the highest scoring game on the week.
Pat Freiermuth @ HOU ($3,400)
Freiermuth’s inclusion on this list is the result of multiple cards falling the right way for the talented third year tight end. Wide receiver Dionte Johnson remains on the IR with a hamstring injury, thrusting Freiermuth into a position of greater relevance, with the 6’5” TE seeing 4 targets from Kenny Pickett in week 3’s win over the Raiders. His price has come down $100 since the victory over Las Vegas on MNF and Freiermuth will fancy his chances of doubling his touchdown number on the season against a very TE friendly Texans defense. Houston is allowing over 50 yards to the position on a weekly basis, giving Freiermuth some appeal at $3400 this week.
Donald Parham v LV ($2,800)
If you are struggling to stay within budget this week, look no further than the overall TE6 on the season – the Chargers Donald Parham. Heading into week 4, Parham boasts an impressive receptions to touchdown ratio of 2:1 – sure, this may only be on 6 receptions all year but the 6’8” behemoth has the trust of Justin Herbert in the Red Zone, hauling in every one of his 4 targets in the opposition 20, scoring touchdowns on 3 of them. Parham is a dart throw, but his huge touchdown potential and sub-$3000 price tag makes him a solid punt play at the position.
Indianapolis Colts @ LAR ($2,900)
The Rams are still without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp and quarterback Matt Stafford has yet to record a multi-TD game so far this season. LA’s O-line allowed Stafford to be sacked 6 times last week against the Bengals in Ohio, the Colts on the other hand have registered 10 sacks in their last 2 outings against Baltimore and Houston. Indianapolis’ defense will be looking to get at the 2009 No.1 overall pick early and often on Sunday afternoon, and despite the Colts D having recorded only 1 interception on the season, Stafford has thrown 4 of them in the Rams last 2 outings. Indy are a solid play at under $3000 this week.
Cleveland Browns v BAL ($2,800)
Cleveland boasts the No.1 rush defense in football and in week 4 get to face off against a Baltimore running back committee of Kenyan Drake, Melvin Gordon and the injured duo of Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. The Browns are allowing on average a mere 83 yards to opposing RBs so far this season, and held Derrick Henry to his lowest rushing yards total since week 15 of 2017. A home matchup in the Dawg Pound only strengthens my belief in this pick. At only $2800, start the Browns with confidence.
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Image Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports
