It’s finally here- Week 5 of the 2023 season, and the third DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
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Kirk Cousins v KC ($6,900)
Captain Kirk left managers disappointed last time out against the Panthers, with phasers set to “mildly irritate” rather than kill against a stout Carolona defense. Cousins’ mark of 139 passing yards was over 200 shy of any of his other 3 outings this season, yet his efficiency remained consistent as the Vikings signal-caller almost mirrored his week 3 output with 7.3 yards per completion at a rate of 63.2%. Minnesota now host the Chiefs in the highest Over/Under of the week, and whilst KC and Mahomes haven’t been at their brilliant best this season, these are 2 high-power passing offenses. This one has shootout potential, and Kirk may see his ownership down after last week’s poor showing…beam me up.
C.J. Stroud @ATL ($6,000)
Oh C.J. I wish I knew how to quit you. I’ve waxed lyrical enough about the Texans rookie QB sensation (yes, I’m calling him a sensation) over the last few weeks, so hopefully by now you are on board the hype train with me. Week 4 against the Steelers saw Stroud post another 300 yard game and tag on another 2 TDs – giving him a 17-game pace of 5,151 yards and 26 scores. Do I think Stroud will continue to post fairytale numbers all season, of course not, but he’s still only $6000 and even against an Atlanta defense that has allowed only 13 points in their last 2 games, I can’t move away from this year’s No.2 overall pick…not yet.
Daniel Jones @MIA ($5,800)
The biggest argument for Daniel Jones this week is that this game is NOT on primetime. After falling to a career 1-12 in nationally televised games, Danny Dimes will be jumping for joy to be suiting up for a 1:00pm Eastern kick off in the Florida sunshine. After back to back games of zero TDs, fantasy managers may rightly be wary of rostering Jones, but Sunday’s game in Miami currently has the third highest Over/Under of the week. Miami have surrendered over 300 yards to opposing quarterbacks in consecutive games, so they can be beaten through the air. Expect Jones to regress to the norm this week and return good value at $5800.
Also consider Tua Tagovailoa v DEN ($7,100), Anthony Richardson v TEN ($7,000), & Russell Wilson v NYJ ($5,700)
Bijan Robinson v HOU ($7,700)
The rookie out of Texas currently sits at the RB6 on the season as he continues to live up to all the pre-season hype that surrounded his top-10 draft pick. What is arguably more impressive about Robinsons’ lofty ranking is that it comes without scoring a rushing touchdown on the season as of yet. Bijan has posted over 20 fantasy points in 3 of his 4 starts as a rookie, yet his price has fallen from $8000 in week 1 to only $7700 entering week 5. The Falcons return from London to host the Texans and their 25th rank run defense. I’m backing Bijan to get his first rushing score this week against Houston…and maybe his 2nd and 3rd as well. Start him with confidence.
David Montgomery v CAR ($6,600)
The debate on who would be the lead back in Detroit is over, this is David Montgomery’s backfield now and Jahmyr Gibbs is just living in it. The former Bear saw a whopping 32 rushing opportunities last Thursday night in the Lion’s comfortable victory against division rivals Green Bay. Montgomery wasn’t overly efficient with his attempts, running at only 3.8 YPC – but with so much volume, he still managed to total 121 yards and more importantly 3 TDs. Monty was questionable to even start the game coming off the injury, so his usage is a clear indicator of the trust Dan Campbell has in the veteran. Expect more of the same this week against a soft Panther’s run D.
Joe Mixon @ARI ($6,400)
I am officially panicking about the Bengals offense, and that’s the exact reason I am diving head first into the Joe Mixon/Ja’Marr Chase pool this weekend. Mixon is still seeing near elite level usage, averaging 15 carries per game. Looking at the box scores, fantasy managers may have been somewhat disappointed by the former Sooners’ production – but his 4.8 YPC against a Titans defense ranked top-3 against the run tells a different story. Bengals players will be faded heavily across the slate, giving savvy DFS players a chance to roster one of the league’s best backs, against one of the NFL’s worst rush defenses…Mixon is a strong play at only $6400 this week.
Breece Hall @DEN ($5,400)
Would I recommend having 100% exposure of a single player on DFS, of course not…am I tempted to do just that with Breece Hall this week, you bet I am. Anyone who witnessed Hall’s 43-yard run last week against the Chiefs can confidently attest that he is fully recovered from his ACL injury; anyone who saw Dalvin Cook in the same game can also agree that he is washed. Let’s keep this simple; HC Robert Saleh has removed Hall’s snap count, Chicago is the worst run defense in the league, and Hall is priced at only $5400…start him, please.
Also consider De’Von Achane v NYG ($6,100), Isiah Pacheco @MIN ($5,700) & Jaleel McLaughlin Williams v NYJ ($5,000)
Ja’Marr Chase @DEN ($7,900)
Sound the “Stud WR under $8k” klaxon! It’s been hard sledding rostering Ja’Marr Chase so far this season. The 2021 OROY has undoubtedly been a casualty of his quarterback’s calf issues, and despite the understandable disappointment from fantasy managers, Chase is starting to put up numbers more akin to what we’ve come to expect from the Bengals’ star wideout. Over the last 2 contests Chase has seen 24 targets, and with teammate Tee Higgins looking likely to sit out Sunday’s game, I’d expect to see the high volume of looks from Joe Burrow to continue for Ja’Marr. It’s not too often we get a chance to roster a WR of Chase’s quality for under $8k, I’ll have him in a good few lineups this week.
Puka Nacua v PHI ($7,700)
Have we ever seen anything like this before in DFS? The Rams rookie receiver has been priced up another $1000 from his week 4 mark and now sits at a loft $7700…we’re in uncharted territory here folks. Nacua feels like a bomb ready to go off at any time. There has to come a point where his Madden style video-game numbers have to tail off, and with Cooper Kupp potentially returning, this could be the week Puca comes crashing back to earth. That’s the narrative I hope others are buying into and decide to fade Puca this week against the Eagles. Nacua has established himself in this offense and has the trust of his coaches and his quarterback. Even with Kupp’s return, Puka will continue to see a healthy share of the team’s targets, keeping him very fantasy relevant week-to-week. The matchup against the Eagles, coupled with the high Over/Under makes Puka a very attractive selection this week…hit me again.
Garrett Wilson @DEN ($6,000)
The temptation to copy and paste my argument for Ja’Marr Chase and simply replace his name with Garret Wilson is strong. 1st round draft capital; check, struggling offense; check, clear target leader on the team; check. Wilson is an elite talent on a far-from elite offense, but his usage in the passing game, even if it is on the Jets, makes him a very attractive play this week. Wilson has seen 1 more target than Chase over the last two weeks, and he too gets to face a generous defense as Gang Green travels to Denver. If you want the ceiling of Ja’Marr Chase for the price of Jerry Jeduy; Garrett Wilson is your man in week 5.
Josh Reynolds v CAR ($4,200)
Opportunity knocks when big name wide receivers miss out, and this week it’s the door of Josh Reynolds that could be getting blown open by all the targets he’s in line to receive from Jared Goff. Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions undisputed No.1 WR and reception leader, missed Wednesday and Thursday practise this week with an abdominal injury – not the toe injury that had bothered him in previous weeks. If ARSB sits, Josh Reynolds and TE Sam LaPorta are in for an increased workload alongside pass-catching RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Reynolds burned fantasy managers with a goose egg in week 3 so there may be hesitancy to roster him so soon. At $4200 he could be a free-square at the position this week.
Also consider A.J. Brown @LAR ($8,000), Adam Theilen @DET ($5,100) & Marquise Brown v CIN ($5,000)
Darren Waller @MIA ($5,400)
The New York Giants coaching staff “can do a better job” of getting Darren Waller involved in the offense…not my words, but the words of Giants HC Brian Daboll. The source checks out, and if there’s anyone who needs to realise Waller needs more targets, it’s his head coach. Last week saw the former Raider see his lowest number of targets on the season, registering only 3 looks from a troubled Daniel Jones in Primetime. Something needs to change, and thankfully it sounds like the G-Men agree. Waller is a risky play this week, especially at a lofty $5400, but he will be required on Sunday against Miami if the Giants want to keep up with the Dolphins electric offense. Cross your fingers, toes and anything else but this coils finally be the week we’ve been waiting for from Waller.
Zach Ertz v CIN ($3,500)
In the barren wasteland that is the fantasy tight landscape, opportunities are my love language, and this week Zach Ertz of the Arizona Cardinals is screaming at me. The former Eagle sits behind only T.J. Hockenson in total targets on the season at the position, and is only 1 shy of teammate Marquise Brown as Joshua Dobbs’ clear No.2 target for the Cardinals. Fantasy managers looking for a volume play at the position who are not willing to pay up for Kelce, Andrews or the aforementioned Hockenson can take advantage of Ertz’s budget pricing and favourable matchup against a Bengals defense ranked 27th against TEs.
Also consider Sam LaPorta v CAR ($5,000) & Jonnu Smith v HOU ($2,900)
Miami Dolphins v NYG ($3,600)
Daniel Jones has been sacked 23 times this season, including an astonishing 10 against the Seahawks last week on MNF. Miami’s defense are hardly air-tight and have let some BIG plays slip by them in the opening 4 weeks but they have more than enough to trouble the Giants O-Line and bring more heat on the bruised and battered Jones. Fantasy managers may be wary of the 48 points the Fins gave up to Josh Allen last week, but Miami are +11 favourites at home and look to be a solid start at the position at $3600.
New Orleans Saints @NE ($3,000)
Arguably my favourite play at the position this week, the New Orleans Saints host a Patriots team fresh off their biggest loss in the Bill Belichick era, as New England fell 38-3 in Arlington last Sunday to the Cowboys. This Saint defensive unit isn’t as formidable as Dallas, but they still rank top 10 against the rush and certainly won’t be intimidated by Mac Jones after his 150 yard and 2 INT outing at AT&T. With Rhamondre Stevenson also struggling on the ground for the Pats, New Orleans are an excellent value at the lower end of the DST pricing scale.
Also consider Denver Broncos @NYJ ($3,100) & Tennessee Titans @IND ($3,000)
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Image Credit: Dale Zanine – USA TODAY Sports
