Moving onto Wildcard weekend and the 2023 playoffs, and we are going to give you some DraftKings bargain bin plays for the week. These are plays that are on the ultra-value/ GPP contrarian side. So generally avoid these plays in cash game lineups, but in GPPs- especially big fields go for it!
You can find all of our DFS content here, and be ready for the week.
Baker Mayfield v PHI ($5,800)
The 13th Annual NFL Honors Ceremony will take place at The Resorts World Theatre in Las Vegas a mere 3 days before Allegiant Stadium, just a few miles away, hosts Super Bowl 58. The bookmakers in Sin City have Bills’ safety Damar Hamlin as the odds-on favourite (with due cause) to walk away with the Comeback Player of the Year award; but one man who rightfully joins him on the shortlist is Tampa Bay’s born again QB, Baker Mayfield. After winning the Heisman Trophy back in 2017, it was a done deal that the former Oklahoma Sooner would be drafted by the Browns with the 1.01 in the 2018 NFL Draft – but the fairytale soon turned into a nightmare for Mayfield, and after 4 seasons in Cleveland Baker was traded to Carolina for a 5th round pick. 1 year, 12 games and 2 franchises later, Mayfield has found a home in The Bay Area and is thriving in Todd Bowles and Dave Canales offensive system. Mayfield finished the regular season as the QB10 in fantasy with 4,044 passing yards for 28 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions…all full-season career bests. A large part of Baker’s success was the alleviation of mistakes from his game – on the season, for quarterbacks who threw the ball over 500 times only 2 were picked off less than Mayfield – Derek Carr and Dak Prescott. After winning the NFC South for the 3rd consecutive season, the No. 4 seed Bucs welcome a stuttering Philadelphia Eagles team and their 31st ranked pass defense to the Raymond James on Sunday night. Expect Baker to try and game manage, using Rachaad White out the backfield – but the Bucs franchise QB (yes, I’m calling it now) has thrown for over 300 yards and multiple scores in 2 of his last 4. He could be in line for a bumper fantasy day.
Mason Rudolph @BUF ($5,300)
In stark contrast to Baker Mayfield, Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph has yet to throw for over 300 yards this season, in fact in his last outing he barely eclipsed half of that – passing for 152 yards and a touchdown as the Steelers ran all over Baltimore’s backups in their regular season finale. This column is all about bargains and there’s no cheaper starting QB on the slate than Rudolph as the No.7 seed Steelers head to snowy Upstate New York to face a resurgent Bills team in Buffalo. In his 3 starts since Kenny Pickett picked up an ankle injury in week 15, Rudolph has been quietly efficient through the air, completing 76% of his passes for 716 yards and 3 scores. The former 3rd round pick has a limited upside against the Bills 6th ranked passing defense, and with Pittsburgh leaning so heavily on the run (more on that shortly), it’s hard to envisage a scenario where the 6th year signal caller puts up a slate-breaking performance…but stranger things have happened. If the Bills go up big and up fast, Rudolph will be forced to take to the air and lean heavily on Diontae Johnson and George Pickens – giving him some fantasy relevance. He’s the lowest priced QB on the slate for a reason – but if you need a budget friendly option at the position he offers you a glimmer of hope.
Najee Harris @BUF ($5,400)
When discussing Mason Rudolph I mentioned how the Steelers have recently been leaning heavily on the run game. Whilst this statement is factually correct, it would be far more accurate to say that the Steelers have recently been leaning heavily on 3rd year back Najee Harris. In his last 2 starts the former 1st round pick carried the ball a whopping 53 times – a total only matched twice on the year, by Josh Jacobs (weeks 9 & 10) and James Conner (also weeks 17 & 18). Harris turned his record equalling workload into 234 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns – enough to see him finish as the RB3 over the 2 game spell. There’s been a direct correlation between Harris’ usage and Pittsburgh’s fortunes, with the Steelers comfortably running out victorious (pun very much intended) when Najee gets the ball in his hands more often. Najee now faces a Bills defense that has kept big name running backs in check the entire season – 23, 37, 39, 52, 56…no those aren’t my lottery numbers for Saturday night, but the number of yards this Buffalo run D has allowed to Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, Tony Pollard and De’Von Achane on occasion this season. Expect Harris to once again form a majority of the Steelers offensive charge, but don’t count on the 120+ yard performances of the last fortnight this time out. He’s a volume play who could find the end zone, especially if the snow starts to fall in the north.
Rico Dowdle v GB ($4,600)
On a slate with so few games, value at the running back position is hard to find – particularly given the calibre of teams who remain as we enter the first week of the postseason. Scanning the pricing at the position for players under the $5,000 we come across the likes of Kenneth Gainwell (swiftly back to the bench with D’Andre back from illness), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (disappointing even with the whole backfield to himself last week), Chase Edmonds (3.6 YPC on the year and firmly behind Rachaad White) and…oh hello Rico Dowdle, didn’t see you hiding down there. The 4th year UDFA out of South Carolina has admirably played his role as the change of pace back behind Tony Pollard this season, rushing for 361 yards on 86 attempts (4.1 YPC), with 2 touchdowns in the Cowboys 12-5 year that saw them top the NFC East. Dowdle added 17 receptions for 144 yards and 2 scores through the air – 56 of those coming in a week 18 victory over Washington in the capital, giving Dowdle his 1st career 100-yard game in the process. Tony Pollard is still the leading man in this Dallas backfield, but with Dowdle proving his worth with his ever increasing role, he will be part of the game plan as the Packers 22nd ranked rush defense rolls into Arlington this weekend. He’s a high upside dart throw for only $4600.
Brandin Cooks v GB ($4,900)
With 81 targets, 54 receptions, 657 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season, 30-year old Brandin Cooks is the clear wide receiver 2 in this Dallas Cowboys offense. With 81 targets, 54 receptions, 657 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season, the clear wide receiver 2 in this Dallas Cowboys offense has 100 targets, 71 receptions, 1,092 yards and 4 touchdowns FEWER than teammate CeeDee Lamb. 10th year veteran receiver Cook’s numbers were essentially a full Jaylen Waddle (72 receptions for 1,014 yards and 4 touchdowns) behind his team-mate Lamb’s…and yet he still finished the year as the WR38 overall. With 8 targets in his last 2 outings, and a score in his last 3, Cooks is a necessary part of this high-scoring, free-flowing Cowboys offense – and will continue to be involved in the teams quest for their first Lombardi Trophy since Super Bowl 30 back in January 1996. Dallas are a full TD favourite as they host the Packers in a matchup with the 2nd highest O/U on the week at 50.5. Cooks should see at least a handful of targets from Dak Prescott with a very high possibility of finding the endzone for the 4th game in-a-row. He’s my favourite play at the position under $5,000.
Demarcus Robinson @DET ($3,600)
With the 6th seed all wrapped up, the Los Angeles Rams elected to rest a number of their starters including franchise quarterback Matt Stafford, lead rusher Kyren Williams, and veteran receiver Cooper Kupp. One man who wasn’t officially sat down was 8th year veteran wideout DeMarcus Robinson…I say “officially” as despite being on the field for 26% of snaps, the former Florida Gator was little more than a decoy, receiving zero targets from backup QB Carson Wentz as the Rams ran out 21-20 victors over the 49ers second string at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be too quick to forget that entering week 18, Robinson was coming off 5 straight games with double digit fantasy points, 4 of which he found the endzone (the one he didn’t being a 6 reception, 92 yard effort). Robinson is the clear WR3 in this offense, but with Matthew Stafford passing for the 2nd highest yardage total on the 5th most attempts in the final month of the season…there’s plenty to go around. Robinson clearly has his quarterback’s trust, giving him huge touchdown potential as the Rams head north to Michigan to face the Lions and their 30th ranked pass defense.
Justin Watson v MIA ($3,400)
Kansas City wide receiver Justin Watson failed to haul in his only reception in the Chiefs final game of the regular season, one that saw them run out 13-12 winners over the Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Under normal circumstances that would be a damning indictment, but with the AFC West division title and the No.3 seed in the conference already wrapped up – Watson should wear that as a badge of honour. The Chiefs unsurprisingly rested key players for their trip to LA, including Patrick Mahomes, Isaiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce (who was a mere 16 yards shy of his 8th consecutive 1,000 yard season…ouch) leaving the door open for messrs Hardman, Ross and James to catch majority of the passing attempts from 2nd string QB Blaine Gabbert. Watson’s lack of action in the regular season finale bodes well for his postseason involvement – heading into the playoffs, the former 5th round draft pick is behind only Rashee Rice at the position in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. He is the clear WR2 on a Patrick Mahomes offense – for only $3400 that’s a very attractive punt play at home against a Dolphins defense ranked 23rd against the position.
Davis Allen ($2,700) / Brycen Hopkins ($2,500) @DET
This one comes with a caveat, one that relates entirely to the health of Rams starting tight end Tyler Higbee. Higbee dislocated his left shoulder in the Rams 26-26 victory over the Giants in New York back in week 17 – the injury wasn’t enough to rule the 8th year veteran out of the contest as he hauled in 6 of his 7 targets for 62 yards, but it was enough to see him sit out last week’s matchup in San Francisco. The former 4th round pick has put in a pair of limited practices on the week but will enter the weekend carrying at least a questionable tag – were Higbee to miss his 2nd straight game as the Rams head to Ford Field, 5th round rookie Davis Allen and 4th year pro Brycen Hopkins would step in as replacements. Allen saw a breakout game back in week 14 in Baltimore, reeling in 4 of his 5 looks for 50 yards and his solitary career touchdown to date. I’d favour the rookie in the event Higbee misses, but if the Rams leading TE suits up – both of these guys hold little to no value. It’s a hard week for bargains at the position but Allen may just provide an option should the stars align for him.
Kansas City Chiefs v MIA ($2,900)
As a Dolphins fan, this pains me to write, but the Kansas City Chiefs defense could offer tremendous value on the slate as they welcome a shell-shocked Miami team to the frozen tundra that will be Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday evening. Latest reports suggest the mercury plummeting to -4°C by kick off, with the wind chill giving a “feels like” temperature of -27°C…yikes. Miami has struggled against .500+ teams all season, with only 1 win against a team with a winning record on the year (Dallas in week 16). The Dolphins didn’t travel well in the regular season, finishing 4-4 on the road – their most recent trip to Maryland ending in an embarrassing 56-19 mauling by the Ravens. Kansas City rank 5th against the quarterback and 3rd against wide receivers – keeping warm won’t be the only reason this defense will be rubbing their hands together on Saturday; the anticipation of facing Tua in the cold will have this unit all fired up – they could be the top DST on the slate at only $2900.
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Image Credit: Tim Heitman – USA TODAY Sports
