It’s finally here- Wildcard Weekend of the 2023 season, and another DraftKings main slate. We are back offering you DFS advice to try and help you navigate your way to victories throughout the season. The players selected here are based on their price, their ability to hit value and likely ownership. The selections are leaning more towards GPP slates, rather than cash (50/50) slates. But let’s get into it
Matt Stafford @DET ($6,500)
In a year that saw Hollywood treat us to a number of captivating original screenplays such as the blockbuster thriller Oppenheimer, western epic Killers of the Flower Moon and the ludicrously silly (and accurately titled) Cocaine Bear – moviegoers continued to be subjected to the tried and tested formula of wealth generation in cinema…the reboot. The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones, Wonka, Barbie and Super Mario Bros (SMB was outstanding to be fair) were all franchises that received a silver screen revival in 2023 and only 2 weeks into 2024 the NFL are treating us to another – the 1983 comedy classic Trading Places, starring Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff and the LA Rams signal caller Matthew Stafford. After the 2021 deal that saw Stafford head to California in exchange for Goff and a pair of 1st round picks, it was only a matter of time before these two met in the playoffs. like the plot of a straight-to-video B movie. With Goff establishing himself as the franchise QB in Detroit and the Lions turning those 2 1st rounders into Aidan Hutchison and Jahmyr Gibbs, there is cause for debate on who won that trade…but what is indisputable – Stafford gave the Rams a Super Bowl, and will be looking to deliver another in 4 weeks time.
In the final 5 games of the regular season (that’s weeks 13 – 17 for us fantasy managers), Stafford was the QB3, throwing for 1,476 yards and 11 touchdowns. Only born again superstar Joe Flacco (more on him shortly) had more yards and scores in that spell. After being given week 18 off alongside teammates Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp, Stafford will be recharged and ready to go against his former team and their 30th ranked passing defense. The Lions gave up almost 270 yards per game to opposing QBs through the regular season – look for their former star to come back and haunt them at Ford Field this Sunday. Priced as the QB7 on the slate, Stafford is a sensational value this Wild Card Weekend.
Joe Flacco @HOU ($6,100)
Matthew Stafford may have been the QB3 for fantasy over those final few weeks, but nobody threw for more yards, scored more touchdowns, or put up more fantasy points at the position than the Cleveland Browns 38-year old, Comeback Player of the Year nominee – Mr Joe Flacco. In any other year, the former Super Bowl MVP would have had CPOY locked up, however I think we can all agree as miraculous as Flacco’s return to the NFL is, Bills safety Damar Hamlin definitely deserves the gong this time round for a comeback that truly was a miracle. Whilst the Browns signal caller may not walk away with the Comeback Player award for the year, he will look to console himself by adding another Super Bowl MVP trophy to his living room cabinet next month. Heading into Wild Card Weekend, fantasy managers will be buoyed with the knowledge that the 16 year veterans’ best fantasy performance on the year came in week 16…in this exact matchup. When the Browns headed to Texas on December 24th, (as well as ruining my re-draft hopes and Christmas) they left as 36-22 victors, with Flacco completing 27 of his 42 passing attempts for 368 yards and 3 touchdowns – QB1 on the week. Don’t expect quite the same level of production this time round, but recent weeks have taught me to check all expectations relating to Joe Flacco at the door. He’s priced at QB10 on a week where we only have 12 starters and Houston allows over 250 yards a game to opposition quarterbacks – start him with confidence.
Also consider Dak Prescott v GB ($7,600)
Isiah Pacheco v MIA ($6,400)
Entering Wild Card Weekend, no running back will match the confidence levels of Kansas City’s lead rusher Isiah Pacheco…and with good cause. The Chiefs 25-17 victory over the Bengals was a career day for Pacheco, with the sophomore 7th round pick posting a career high 130 rushing yards as well as hauling in all 7 of his targets from Patrick Mahomes…also a benchmark for the 24-year old out of Rutgers. It has been a breakout year for the fast-footed, hard-running back, finishing tied for the RB9 in yards per game with Raheem Mostert, posting an average of 67 yards on the ground in each of his 14 contests. Pacheco was officially listed as active for KC’s week 18 victory over the Chargers, but like many of his teammates, he was given the day off and never saw the field. The additional rest could come in handy for the Chiefs leading rusher this weekend, with temperature in KC set to reach -5°C by kick off and the wind chill giving a “feels like” temperature as low as -30°C, expect to see a lot of rushing plays from both teams in this one. Miami boasts the 8th ranked rush defense in football, posing a tough test for KC’s ball carriers – but with the projected on-field conditions, expect Pacheco to get the ball in his hands a lot against the Dolphins. Combining the volume of rushes he should see with the almost guaranteed handful of dumpoffs from Patrick Mahomes could see Pacheco having a very productive output for fantasy managers at Arrowhead on Saturday night.
Tony Pollard v GB ($6,100)
Despite recording his 2nd consecutive season with over 1,000 yards (just) it was a relatively disappointing season for the Cowboys 5th year back. With Ezekiel Elliot departing during the off-season and Dallas failing to replace him, the assumption was that YPC behemoth Pollard would ascend to the top of the depth chart and be one of the most valuable assets at the position in fantasy. Well, we were partly correct – Pollard was the undisputed leader in the backfield for the Cowboys, his 252 carries were the 7th most for any running back on the year – but despite the huge increase in workload (30% more carries than 193 in 2022) Pollard actually put up less yards on the ground, rushing for 1,005 in 17 games this season compared to 1,007 in 1 game less 12 months ago. Despite the relative in-efficiency, Pollard is still the guy for Mike McCarthy and will see the lion’s share of handoffs as Dallas hosts the Packers this Sunday. Of the 14 teams who made the postseason, Green Bay has the worst run defense, allowing almost 125 yards per week to opposing RBs. Dallas are 7 point favourites at home in the 2nd highest O/U of the week – expect them to get up early against the Packers and control the game on the ground in the 2nd half, allowing Pollard to chunk away at the clock and Green Bay’s offensive line. Priced up as the RB10 on the slate, TP could volume himself to a top-3 finish on the week.
Also consider Jahmyr Gibbs v LAR ($6,500)
Puka Nacua @DET ($7,200)
Is Puka Nacua the greatest rookie wide receiver ever? Opinions will certainly differ and those who remember the debut campaigns of Randy Moss, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and even OBJ could argue against Nacua…but fantasy is a game of numbers, and the records show Puka statistically had the best rookie receiving campaign of all time. Whilst his teammates were enjoying a week off, the 22-year old 5th rounder out of BYU was on the field breaking both the rookie receptions and receiving yards records in the Rams win over the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Puka’s 4 receptions for 41 yards last Sunday took him to 105 grabs for 1,486 yards on the year – 1 more catch than Jaylen Waddle in 2021 and 13 yards on top of the 1,473 Bill Groman recorded for the Houston Oilers way back in 1960. Nacua’s sights will now be set on the rookie postseason records for receptions and yards…both held by Ja’Marr Chase, set back in 2021. Puka will need to eclipse 25 catches and 368 yards if he wants to further etch his name into the history books, and he’ll have every opportunity against the Detroit Lions’ 30th ranked passing defense. Nacua went over 100 yards in 7 of his 17 regular season games, it would be a brave soul who bet against him making it 1 for 1 in the playoffs at Ford Field on Sunday evening. Kupp is back, but this is Puka’s world now and Cooper is only living in it for the foreseeable future.
Mike Evans v PHI ($6,900)
Here is a list of every NFL wide receiver in the history of the game who has had more consecutive 1,000 receiving yard seasons than Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans; Jerry Rice…end of list. I am not remotely suggesting that Evans is a better receiver than Rice, but through his first decade as an NFL pro, Evans is on pace to surpass Rice’s all-time yardage record. Ok, I’m getting ahead of myself, I don’t think for one second Evans will (or realistically could) play until he is 40-years old – but let’s not take away just what the Bucs’ 1st round pick from 2014 has achieved in the game. Evans led the Bucs in targets and receiving yards, as well as hauling in the most receiving touchdowns in the league with 13. After helping his team to their 3rd consecutive NFC South title, Evans and company now welcome the Philadelphia Eagles and their passing defense which ranks dead last against wideouts. Philly are giving up over 180 yards to opposing receivers each week, and nearly 2 touchdowns per game to the position. Expect Evans to be a busy man on Monday night at the Raymond James.
DeVonta Smith @TB ($6,700)
On the other side of the ball from Evans is a young wideout looking to start his own streak of consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, and with back-to-back efforts in 2022 and 2023, DeVonta Smith is going the right way about it. Unlike Evans, Smith is very much the WR2 on his team, sitting comfortably behind teammate A.J. Brown in all major categories apart from touchdowns, where they tied with 7 scores apiece. After finishing his sophomore year as the WR9 for fantasy, managers could rightly be a tad disappointed with Smith’s WR19 performance in 2023 – however, the finish wasn’t an indictment on the former 1st rounder’s output – recording only 0.8 points per game fewer this year than in 2022. Smith is more of a WR 1B to Brown’s 1A, but with the Alpha receiver Brown yet to practise this week after suffering a knee injury during last Sunday’s defeat in New York, Smith could be set to lead the line in Tampa on Monday evening. Even if Brown does suit up, it could be as a decoy, potentially further enhancing Smith’s value. Keep an eye on Philly’s practise reports over the weekend, but I have no doubts Smith will be the Eagles pass-catcher you want to roster this Wild Card Weekend.
*Breaking News – as of 10:15am ET A.J. Brown as been ruled OUT of Monday’s game – Smith is a must-start*
Also consider Amari Cooper @HOU ($6,800)
Dalton Kincaid v PIT ($4,600)
Spare a thought for Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. In his debut season he had the 2nd most targets and receptions on the team (behind Stefon Diggs of course), amassed a very respectable 673 receiving yards (3rd behind Diggs and Davis) and found the endzone on 2 occasions. In any other year we would be heralding the 24-year old 1st round selection as “the next Travis Kelce”…unfortunately for the University of Utah alum, Sam LaPorta exists, and the Lion’s 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns (T-2nd with Gronk and behind only the great Mike Ditka) overshadowed the excellent maiden campaign Kinkaid put together with Josh Allen. Despite being a distant 2nd on the season to Diggs, Kincaid almost found himself at parity with his All-Pro teammate in the 2nd half of the season – recording 334 yards on 33 receptions in his final 8 games compared to Diggs’ 37 receptions for 349 yards. With Gabe Davis already ruled out of the Wild Card clash against Pittsburgh with a knee injury, Kincaid becomes an even more valuable part of this passing offense heading into the postseason. The weather in Upstate New York come Sunday evening is set to be wild with freezing temperatures, 7-inches of snow, and gusts of up to 50 mph forecasted. The blizzard like conditions will put a ceiling on all passing weapons, but where any throws are attempted, expect them to be short and sharp – exactly where Dalton Kincaid will make his mark. It’s a risk, but at only $4600 against a relatively generous Steelers defense, the rookie could be a solid play.
Also consider David Njoku @HOU ($5,600)
Buffalo Bills v PIT ($3,500)
Contrary to popular belief, low temperatures and snowy conditions historically favour offenses and not those on the defensive side of the ball. Whilst the forecasted 50 mph winds will undoubtedly play havoc in the passing game, limiting the upside of Josh Allen and his receivers, it could completely erase any involvement in the game for Steelers QB Mason Rudolph. The Bills run defense ranks middle-of-the-pack, but with conditions all but ruling out the Pittsburgh passing game, they will be able to focus their attention solely on Najee Harris plodding out of the backfield. Blizzard-like conditions impacting visibility and footing will play into the Bills hands and could allow them to force multiple turnovers in the chaos of the snow. Buffalo are 9.5 favourites in a game with an O/U of only 33 points – they are a smash start at the position on Sunday.
Also consider Kansas City Chiefs v MIA ($2,900)
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Image Credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports
