The 2024 season is just around the corner, but there is always time to make some last minute dynasty moves- here we look at QB sells. It’s all too easy to suggest an aging asset is a must sell or that CJ Stroud is overvalued, which seems to be the general consensus this offseason. Here I want to focus on a selection of players I feel could be headed in the wrong direction when it comes to dynasty value over the next 12 months or at least get you thinking of players that make sense to pivot to that will benefit your team in the long run.
Here we look at:
- Daniel Jones (NYG)- Must Sell
- Brock Purdy (SF) – Reached Peak Value
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – Cause for Concern?
Daniel Jones (NYG) – Must Sell
Danny Dimes can count himself one lucky man this offseason. There were plenty of trade talks for the Giants to move up in the Draft, but they failed to materialize. They stuck and picked an elite WR in Malik Nabers. A piece who’s come in red hot and looks every bit like a worthwhile top-10 pick. This has given Jones one final hurrah in 2024 as the QB of the New York Giants and given how Nabers has started life in the NFL, he could be a value in redraft.
Redraft isn’t the name of the game here though and in Dynasty I feel that this situation has represented itself as your last chance to trade away Jones for any sort of meaningful value. There would have been a point in time shortly after signing his $160m contract that you were happy with your QB asset or you could have cashed in on a fringe QB1 price. Those days didn’t last long and it was quickly apparent that the Giants handed out one of the worst QB contracts in recent years.
Fast forward to today and Jones coming off a torn ACL in 2023 (that saw him only play in 5 and a bit games) is in make-or-break territory. Unfortunately for him I don’t see anything other than a miserable season and a top 5 pick for the Giants in 2025. A tough NFC East combined with a Vegas win total of just 6.5 (only 3 teams are predicted to win less games) leads me to believe the Giants will likely be cleaning house and picking a new signal caller in late April next year.
Although you cannot expect anything big in return, I would be happy moving Jones for a 2025 2nd on a team I’m not fully committed in 2024. My preferred option though is to see if I can move Jones, a starter in 2024, straight up for Geno Smith who I feel is ready for a bounce back in 2024, or try and pay up for Deshaun Watson who has seen his dynasty stock tumble.
Brock Purdy (SF) – Reached Peak Value?
I will start by saying I’m a huge Brock Purdy fan and am grateful for the numerous Purdy shares I have in dynasty. Brock Purdy was awesome again in 2023 and a QB6 finish was beyond my wildest expectations for ‘Mr Irrelevant’ from the 2022 draft class. The 49ers are positioned nicely once again for another run at a Super Bowl. But also for fantasy success with Kyle Shanahan one of the best offensive minds in the NFL in charge.
So why would a 24 year old Brock Purdy be a sell? I for one don’t believe that a QB6 finish is repeatable and Purdy will be in for at least some decline in 2024. He was by far the most efficient QB in the league when it comes to maximizing every single play. Purdy threw the ball just 444 times in 2023 which ranked 20th in the NFL, a full 168 attempts less than leader Sam Howell. On these attempts, he achieved a league-leading TD rate of 7%, which using historical data is unsustainable.
Purdy’s expected PPG in 2023 was incredibly almost 5 points lower than the 19.2 he actually achieved (lead the league by a mile in this category to).
Not only am I expecting regression to bite this year, the 49ers have question marks over their two star WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk is currently staging a hold-in at camp seeking a new contract following so many WRs getting paid this offseason. Deebo Samuel poised for a key role in 2024 but longer-term doubts have emerged and trade rumours haven’t completely disappeared. Can the 49ers pay two-star WRs $20m+ a year as well as their other embarrassments of riches at RB & TE (Christian McCaffrey & George Kittle)?
In conclusion, I see the likeliness of a QB1 season fairly high for Brock Purdy in 2024. I wouldn’t be in full panic mode to sell Purdy and understand he will be extended within the next year, but I can’t get past the massive overachievement that was last year and would use this offseason to possibly look to pivot to another QB in his tier.
Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott & Justin Herbert are all QBs found in this tier I would love to pivot to and in the case of Murray, Daniels & Herbert I would add up to a future 2nd to get the deal done.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – Cause for Concern?
Trevor Lawrence’s dynasty value has held up remarkably well for someone that hasn’t returned value on his lofty price when he was drafted number one overall in 2021.
Still valued as a fringe QB1 in dynasty and I think that’s mainly due to people still believing he will eventually come good and become that ‘generational QB’ following a magical run in college with Clemson.
He may be a better than average QB in real life NFL terms but what matters for fantasy managers is points! In 3 seasons so far Lawrence has failed to top 18 PPG and has just 58 passing TDs to 39 INTs and 33 fumbles!
The offseason has seen the additions of veteran WR Gabe Davis in free agency and Brian Thomas Jr via the NFL Draft. In terms of outgoings, a major one of Calvin Ridley, leaving for a huge contract in Tennessee. Brian Thomas Jr comes with fantastic draft capital but certainly has his critics and Gabe Davis didn’t manage to fulfill his potential working with Josh Allen in Buffalo. I personally don’t see these additions being major enough to move the needle for Lawrence who in reality given his ability and status should really be aiming for a top 8 fantasy finish in points per game.
Like Brock Purdy I’m not panic selling but this is a warning that dynasty managers will eventually get fed up of players who don’t live up to the hype and help them win their fantasy leagues. Lawrence hasn’t helped you thus far and there comes a point when it’s worth looking into pivoting to a QB who will hep you win while his value is still high.
In steps the likes of Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Jayden Daniels and even Jared Goff. These 4 players represent different situations in their career ranging from veterans to rookies but all 4 to me have a higher ceiling than Trevor Lawrence does in fantasy.
If Trevor Lawrence is my QB1 on my team in fantasy I’m worried, very worried.
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