The 2024 season is just around the corner, but there is always time to make some last minute dynasty moves- here we look at RB sells. It’s all too easy to suggest an aging asset is a must-sell or that a veteran is overvalued. Here I want to focus on a selection of players I feel could be headed in the wrong direction when it comes to dynasty value over the next 12 months or at least get you thinking of players that make sense to pivot to that will benefit your team in the long run.
Here we look at:
- D’Andre Swift (CHI) – Must Sell
- Zamir White (LV) – Reached Peak Value?
- Zack Moss (CIN) – Reached Peak Value?
- Tony Pollard (TEN) – Special Mention
D’Andre Swift (CHI) – Must Sell
I was VERY high on D’Andre Swift coming into the NFL. I always have a preferred type when it comes to my dynasty RBs and Swift fits the bill as a speedy receiving back. The only problem is he’s not been very good in the NFL and now finds himself on his 3rd team in 3 seasons.
Last season he couldn’t have had it much better, landing on an Eagles team with their dominant O-line opening up gaping holes for the run game. Swift couldn’t take advantage and although playing in 16 games (his highest of his career) he could only return a RB20 finish and score just 6 times. Swift’s yards per touch (4.7) ranked 28th in the NFL, his yards created per touch (2.68) even worse at 51st in the NFL. Expected points per game: 13.3, he achieved 12.5. This should have gone so much better but didn’t.
This offseason Swift gets the free agency bag with Chicago to get first shot at RB1 duties for Caleb Williams and this new Chicago offense. An offensive line that is for sure going to be a downgrade from Philadelphia’s and even Detroit the year before. Add in the stacked receiving weapons at William’s disposal – Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet… There isn’t going to be a ton of passing volume for a RB that needs it to return cost. Sharing a backfield, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson are two RBs I actually really like and think will have roles in this offense this year. Johnson targeted 40 times despite very limited usage and Khalil Herbert has shown to be a far more efficient runner and better between the tackles than Swift. What does Swift bring to this offense that wasn’t already in Chicago? I have big question marks.
At RB19 at current market, I would 100% be using this opportunity to use his new shiny contract to jump off Swift who’s never played a full season and who I don’t see a 5th year breakout coming. If I was offered a future 1st round pick I’d snap their hand off. In terms of moving for another player in the same tier, Rhamondre Stevenson is someone I would love to acquire straight up.
Zamir White (LV) – Reached Peak Value?
Last season I was sucked in to believing that two backup RBs thrust into their starting RB roles were going to be superstars. I cannot seem to shake off the nightmares that were Tony Pollard & Alexander Mattison from 2023 and I fear that Zamir Whyte is just a mirage, ready to disappoint.
Zamir White has risen to RB22 on market, a price I simply cannot get on board with for a guy who’s only registered just 121 rushing attempts in 2 seasons and isn’t known for catching the ball. The Raiders offense I don’t expect to make any considerable progress from 2023 with no major investment at QB with Minshew or O’Connell in a battle for QB1 spot. The volume looks set to be there at least in 2024 with Rookie Dylan Laube and Alexander Mattison pushing White for touches. I’m just not sure how valuable these touches are likely to be and I cannot see many scoring opportunities with the state the current offense is in.
I think at best with Zamir White you are getting a one year rental on a player who’s popular with Head Coach Antonio Pierce and will have an RB2 type season. If you managed to but low or have held White throughout the Josh Jacobs years then you might be happy to hold him as your RB3/flex type player. I see it more of an opportunity to sell at what should be peak value and re-invest.
If I can receive Rhamondre Stevenson without having to add anything considerable, I’m doing it. My preferred option to move White on would be to tier down to Alvin Kamara, James Conner or Aaron Jones and pick up an extra draft pick in the process. All 3 veteran players have an equal chance of having as good if not better fantasy season than Zamir White.
Zack Moss (CIN) – Reached Peak Value?
Zack Moss is 100% in the same category of, very reliable backup… Should never have to be An NFL starter. Losing reps to the more explosive back Chase Brown in training camp, avoid and try and sell someone the idea that Moss has been great in spells when given a chance (Jonathan Taylor injury) and he will flourish in a high powered offense. Turning 27 in season is not ideal when thinking about potential buyers so I’d rather move Moss on now than regret holding him when he’s worth nothing.
Tony Pollard (TEN) – Special Mention
Tony Pollard is just not cut out to be a lead NFL RB. His situation in Dallas last season could not have been much better for him, but he still stunk the place out. Yards per touch at 4.3 ranked 44th in the NFL, his true yards per carry at 3.9 not much better ranking him 42nd. Known for his playmaking ability when he flashed as a change of pace back in 2022, his breakaway run rate at just 4.4% ranked him 25th. Given he saw the 7th highest snap share and 7th most carries at the position his finish of RB22 in fantasy points per game was a disaster.
Pollard’s value plummeted to end the season with his contract coming to an end in Dallas. He was as good as finished for dynasty, turning 27 and having not worked out in a great offense. The free agency splash by the Titans represents the absolute best opportunity to cash in before he’s completely gone next time.
For fantasy terms the move is a confusing one with already established Tyjae Spears sharing much of a similar skill set as Pollard, a known more of a change of pace, pass-catching specialist. Spears certainly with the better efficiency metrics from last season despite playing on a much worse offense. It will be a very interesting situation to monitor and I fear a 50/50 split is what can be expected. Spears I feel ultimately will have more juice and could earn more touches than Pollard throughout the season.
Similarly to Zamir White and Zack Moss, If I can flip Pollard for a veteran with a more known, successful role like Alvin Kamara or James Conner that would represent a good return. If I can flip for a 2nd plus I would do it instantly. Alternatively targeting one of the recently arrived rookies like Trey Benson, Marshawn Lloyd straight up or Jaylen Wright + is the type of move you always want to make. Getting younger at the position and investing in high upside talent can pay off massively in the long run.
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