It’s mainly 2024 redraft season, but there are always dynasty leagues beginning- here we explore RB strategy in your startup draft. The obvious thing is to say ‘avoid age, especially age 27 or more’, but it’s not as easy as that if you want to have success.
Part of dynasty is looking ahead and knowing what’s in the pipeline. Your team should be like an escalator, constantly moving up. If you play in two to three-year windows and do your homework, older running backs can still be serviceable in your start-up drafts saving your elite capital for pass catchers and QB’s.
Let’s have a look at where some of the top backs are going in start-ups, their pros and cons, and why I might break some of the rules about drafting older backs because of my confidence in the running backs on the college scene.
2024 Dynasty Startup RB Strategy – The Elite
The problem here is in your start-ups, elite young running backs are few and far between. The big 3 require top-24 pick draft capital but will spearhead your lineup. Depending on your build I don’t think any of these are bad choices at their ADP.
Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB1 Age: 22)
By far and away one of the most complete backs I’ve ever seen in my time looking at tape. With a current ADP of 14.6, we’re rightly not giving up on him after a 14.49 PPG rookie season where he was handcuffed by Arthur Smith’s somewhat inexplicable offensive game plan.
Breece Hall (NYJ, RB2 Age: 23)
He perhaps exceeded all expectations last season in the way he bounced back from an ACL season that cut short his rookie season just as it really felt like it was getting going. He exploded back to form last season with 17.09 PPG and is going just a few picks after Bijan with an ADP of 17.2. Will the return of Aaron Rodgers change Hall’s usage this year as he heads into Year 3?
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB3 Age: 22)
Gibbs was everything I said he would be! (Flex). As a fan of the Crimson Tide I watched first hand as Gibbs proved a dynamic threat on the ground and in the passing game and was confident he’d be a PPR weapon in the correct scheme. His 16.14 PPG is even more impressive when you consider he split carries with David Montgomery. Gibbs should take more work from that committee this year and his role more as a pass catcher than a between the tackles thumper should keep him more effective for longer. The dream is Alvin Kamara 2.0. Gibbs has an ADP of 19.0 which again could be money well spent.
2024 Dynasty Startup RB Strategy – The Next Batch
In the next group are a group of solid RB’s but I’m not looking at investing at ADP, I’d be happy with any of these if they slip on the draft board.
Christian McCaffrey (SF, RB4 Age: 28)
So CMC should go in the group above. A unicorn of a player but I tried to save that group for young players with room to grow. Surely McCaffrey is at his ceiling now? If you can get him at the back end of the second you can focus your entire build around win-now talent and go for an early championship!
Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB5 Age: 25)
ADP 32.0 – Injuries, the return of Anthony Richardson and emergence of Michael Pittman. Sure Taylor is talented but at 25 can he get back amongst the elite?
Travis Etienne (JAX, RB6 Age: 25)
ADP – 39.0 – Propped up by touchdowns last season, a good player but I’d rather pivot at a price this high.
De’Von Achane (MIA, RB7 Age: 22)
ADP – 45.4 – Take a look at Rich’s recent article for the lowdown on De’Von Achane. I like his ADP and if I don’t take an elite from the group above I’m targeting Achane.
Saquon Barkley (NYG, RB8 Age: 27)
ADP – 43.2 – Age 27, injury history, new team with a better offense. Jalen Hurts will continue to take rushing snaps in and around the goal line and there’s the small matter of feeding two elite fantasy wide receivers in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Too many questions for a mid 4th round start-up pick.
2024 Dynasty Startup RB Strategy – Rookie Class
People were down on this class. Not me. What this class didn’t have was a headline act like a Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. There were however a number of players who will be viable contributors to your dynasty rosters.
Jonathon Brooks (CAR, RB13 Age: 21)
ADP – 67.0 – The stand-out back in this class, he’s coming back from an ACL injury and may take time. The landing spot gives him a bump but he might take time to find his form and you draft with locking him away for a year being the plan.
Trey Benson (ARI, RB16 Age: 22)
ADP – 76.75 – Benson has a three-down skill set and will start number 2 in their depth chart behind James Conner. He could be the lead guy by seasons end with very little competition. I like him here at this price.
Marshawn Lloyd (GB, RB33 Age: 23)
ADP – 141 – This ADP has got to be based on landing spot. Lloyd joins the Green Bay Packers who acquired free agent Josh Jacobs in the off-season. This doesn’t worry me. Jacobs is 26 coming off a down season in Vegas and they paid him handsomely, but look how Green Bay has always used two backs in the bad weather in Wisconsin. Lloyd is a well-rounded player who should be a real value at this price.
This seasons strategy
My technique this year however has been to fade these more expensive running backs and target pass catchers who tend to have longer, more productive fantasy careers for a dynasty owner.
This is risky, sure. At any point the backs I’m about to name could fall off that cliff I mentioned earlier, but at this cost I’m much happier to take that chance. The main reason is the running back landscape is bright. There is an influx of talent coming in 2025 and 2026 that will wash away some of those older backs and replace them with a “new generation” at the position.
The plan is ride the wheels off veterans with previous levels of high performance all available round 7 and beyond. In the 2025 and 2026 drafts replace them by drafting running backs who can stick on my roster for the next 4-5 years.
The difficulty here is forgetting the resale value. Nobody will want to buy these depreciating assets from you (with the exception of a contender who may want a late-season boost). But what you’re getting is high-level production at value that you will replace naturally.
2024 Dynasty Startup RB Strategy – Oldies But Goodies
Joe Mixon (HOU, RB18 Age: 28)
ADP – 86.33 – coming off an RB6 finish scoring an average 15.71 PPG Mixon finds himself in a new home, with virtually no competition for touches in Houston. The Texans are looking to support quarterback CJ Stroud with established weapons and Mixon should thrive in the system. He has a 3-year deal with a likely out after two. Perfect for our timeline.
Derrick Henry (BAL, RB20 Age: 30)
ADP – 74.25 – Part of this strategy is to make sure the players you target were once amongst the cream of the crop. Henry may be 30 years old, and he may have lost a step but this move to Baltimore should rejuvenate him. He averaged 14.51 PPG last season at Tennessee with 9 top 12 finishes across 17 games. He has a two-year contract in Baltimore and I expect him to be more than a one-and-done. Henry could be the perfect player to ride into the sunset whilst you identify your next back.
Alvin Kamara (NO, RB23 Age: 29)
ADP – 95.3 – At 29 years old, Kamara continues to produce at a high level. Why?! Because he wins differently to many other running backs. This also eases the fear somewhat about the “fall off”. After his 4 game suspension last season he roared back to average 17.92 PPG in PPR leagues. With an 8th-round ADP I’d even go up and snag him in the 7th and feel really good watching others over pay on a Rachaad White.
Nick Chubb (CLE, RB35 Age: 28)
ADP – 123 – I get it. The injury Chubb suffered last year was horrendous. You’d be right to question whether he’ll ever be the same player again. What I do know is at an 11th round ADP, I’m happy to gamble on finding out. Imagine he comes back healthy after the Browns week 10 bye and provides you with a charge towards the playoffs. Just imagine.
Austin Ekeler (WAS, RB39 Age: 29)
ADP – 131.7 – I can hear you laughing now. “Phil you’ve lost it pal”. Let me ask you a question. Did he burn you at ADP last year? Is that why you’re mad? In July of 2023 Ekeler had an ADP of 23.1. No wonder you’re crying. Second-round capital for a then 28-year-old only to yield an RB 26 finish really sucks! But 13.24 PPG at a 12th-round ADP to be your second / third guy or maybe a flex spot play doesn’t seem so bad right? This is about what you pay and expect as a result.
He’s moved to Washington this season where he’ll be expected to do less. They still have Brian Robinson to thump between the tackles and Daniels who can provide a rushing threat. Add to the fact Ekeler was clearly playing injured last year. I don’t think he’s completely washed just yet.
2024 Dynasty Startup RB Strategy – Incoming 2025 Rookies
As you’re about to see I’m confident in this approach because I feel the future is bright. I genuinely think we can end up with 10 top two-round rookie draft selections in the 2025 season at the running back position.
If you invest in veterans post-round 7 in your start up you’ll want to get to know these names as potential replacements and some of their strengths. Key note, they aren’t in ranked order. Not all of these guys will hit of course. Remember 50% of first-round dynasty picks tend to be looked back on as hits, However, if you feel confident in your scouting I believe this could be a road to success.
Players taken from https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2025
Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State
- Footwork
- Vision
- Height, weight, speed combo
- Balance
- Lateral agility
- Long speed in open grass
Tre’Veyon Henderson, Ohio State
- Open-field elusiveness
- Patience and vision
- Big-play speed
Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State (From Ole Miss)
- Physically imposing runner
- Causes missed tackles
- Burst, acceleration, and speed
Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
- Low center of gravity
- Vision
- Fluid mover and direction-changer
- PPR weapon
Omarion Hampton, North Carolina
- North South runner
- Explodes through the hole
- Contact balance
- Minimal wasted movement
Damien Martinez, Miami
- Start-stop ability
- Contact balance
- Elusive for a 240lb back
Trevor Etienne, Georgia
- Lateral agility
- Short-area quickness
- PPR upside
Nicholas Singleton, Penn State
- Elite athletic profile
- Footwork
- PPR upside
- Finds ways to gain extra yards
Kaytron Allen, Penn State
- Leg drive
- Contact balance
- Explodes through the line of scrimmage
Devin Neal, Kansas
- Acceleration and deceleration
- Dual-threat playmaker
- Vision and decision-making
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