The 2024 season is just around the corner, but there is always time to make some last-minute dynasty moves- here we look at TE sells. The obvious answer to who is a sell at the TE position would be Travis Kelce if you are not a contender in 2024. That’s too easy so here I want to feature a selection of TEs who people might be sleeping on for the wrong reasons and could LOSE VALUE over the next season.
The dynasty landscape is forever changing and becoming more and more volatile to bigger value rises and drops. I would rather get out a year early than be left holding the bag with an asset that shortly could have little to no value.
Here we look at:
- Jake Ferguson (DAL) – Must Sell
- Sam LaPorta (DET) – Reached Peak Value?
- T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – Cause for Concern?
Jake Ferguson (DAL) – Must Sell
I’ll start by saying I think Ferguson is in for a successful season for fantasy. If you own him, you’ll be relatively happy with his output in 2024. But how safe of a dynasty asset is he? Is there any room to grow from his current value of around the TE10?
My answer to that is most likely no. I think he’s reached or is very close to his ceiling in terms of value. I think he’s an average to above-average TE whose fantasy output is a direct product of the offense. I very much see him in the same light as Dalton Schultz who was impressively productive in this Dallas Cowboys offense when given the TE1 role.
I think many TEs in the NFL could fill in that Cowboys TE1 role admirably and be fantasy-relevant. That’s my issue with Jake Ferguson who I do not view as an elite asset, if you put him on a bottom 10 offense he would very likely be irrelevant. Looking at Dalton Schultz as a Cowboy, he was once ranked as high as TE8 on KTC following the 2022 season, he’s now down to TE17. Ultimately this is the path I would predict for Jake Ferguson.
Ferguson being currently ranked ahead of Evan Engram and David Njoku on many platforms is just bizarre in my opinion. I would 100% be trying to flip Ferguson for one of those 2 players if I couldn’t trade up. My first option would be to see if I could add a little to get up to a George Kittle or Mark Andrews. All these players have seen multiple years of top TE finishes and have proven to be difference-makers for their team, not just a product of the offense.
Sam LaPorta (DET) – Reached Peak Value?
The only way is down when you’re ranked as the No.1 at your position. There aren’t many dynasty players that won’t have LaPorta as their dynasty TE1 and rightly so. Setting rookie records in year 1 is extremely impressive and everything looks set for more of the same as we enter year 2 in Detroit.
I have absolutely no argument with him being ranked as the TE1, I have him there myself. The question I have is when people have him ranked in his own tier at the top and well above the rest. For me it’s a tier of 4 that could easily be a tier of 5.
- Trey McBride was phenomenal in the 2nd half of the season, one of Kyler Murray’s favorite targets.
- Dalton Kincaid looks set to have a huge role on Josh Allen’s Buffalo offense and
- Brock Bowers is entering the league as the best college TE prospect we’ve maybe ever seen.
Most shockingly is the fact I still haven’t named Mark Andrews yet who was having an elite TE1 season before going down with injury and I am backing another huge season from.
This is the point in dynasty where I am happy to pivot sideways if one of my league-mates is willing to give me a little extra to move off LaPorta. He’s one of the most desirable assets in all of dynasty right now and someone that’s very sellable because of the fact that every person in your league regardless of their team’s direction, is going to want LaPorta.
The only way moving off LaPorta for another top 5/6 dynasty TE would turn out to be wrong would be if he literally starts producing Travis Kelce numbers from a couple of seasons ago. If he was producing at several points per game more than any other TE then it’s the wrong move but I would put that percentage possibility at around 10% or in other words, very low indeed.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – Cause for Concern?
Hockenson feels like a guy who never gets enough credit for his fantasy production so far in his career. 3 out of his last 4 seasons he’s been a top 5 fantasy TE with his best season to date in points per game coming last season scoring 14.6 (equalling Travis Kelce).
The major injury setback coming late in the year has dampened the spirit of Hockenson owners with the tight end set to miss a large chunk of the 2024 season returning from the ACL & MCL injury. His dynasty value has dropped to TE8 signalling his lowest position rank since his sophomore season with the Lions.
You might look at that lowly rank and think there’s a window to buy in, and you may be right if you can get him at a nice injury discount. I think his current price is fair but my slight concern about Hockenson in dynasty is what happened this offseason with the QB change to JJ McCarthy. McCarthy, unfortunately, suffered the season-ending injury in preseason but is clearly the long-term solution for the Vikings at QB.
This is where my slight concerns align for Hockenson long term. I think you’ll see very little production in 2024 returning from the major injury. You’ll then have a sophomore QB who will be playing his very first games in the NFL in 2025 and will be unlikely to be asked to drop back and pass 35-40 times like Kirk Cousins was in 2023.
Will JJ McCarthy be able to support superstar Justin Jefferson, 1st round pick Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson and the rest of the supporting crew? I have my doubts and I feel like the next couple of seasons could be tougher for Hockenson and he won’t return the same numbers he’s been producing with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson (27) is 2 years younger than Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews but looking at how he is being valued at market is lower than where I think he’s ranked. I fear that Hockenson will be nearer to the same age (29) before he could be back producing more elite numbers and by then his value will likely only go down.
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