The 2024 season is just around the corner, but there is always time to make some last minute dynasty moves- here we look at WR sells. The dynasty landscape is forever changing and becoming more and more volatile to bigger value rises and drops. I would rather get out a year early than be left holding the bag with an asset that shortly could have little to no value.It’s all too easy to suggest an aging asset is a must-sell or that a veteran is overvalued. Here I want to focus on a selection of players I feel could be headed in the wrong direction when it comes to dynasty value over the next 12 months or at least get you thinking of players that make sense to pivot to that will benefit your team in the long run.
Here we look at:
- George Pickens (PIT) – Must Sell
- Drake London (ATL) – Reached Peak Value?
- A.J. Brown (PHI) – Cause for Concern?
George Pickens (PIT) – Must Sell
Following the rules of not being able to pick ageing WRs, my must sell is someone I actually quite like if he’s my WR3 or lower on my roster. At just 23 years of age and coming off the back of a 1,000 yard season, Pickens is firmly on the list of potential breakouts for a lot of dynasty players. I’m not backing against it completely either. But I do see a world where this breakout doesn’t happen and his value of around WR23 (depending on where you look) drops.
Pickens current value is factoring in that he’s the newly inserted ‘alpha’ WR1 in Pittsburgh now that Diontae Johnson left in free agency. I’ve not seen enough signs from Pickens that he can be a long term potential WR1. I think he’s flashy as a player, a highlight reel waiting to happen. So you see the potential but his inconsistencies ultimately let him down. Which is why his 1,000-yard season was only good enough for a WR30 finish (WR36 in PPG).
This is the exact scenario I like to use to pivot to a safer prospect or to someone I see as having WR1 potential. There are so many WRs in this tier I would love to pivot to from Pickens including:
- Deebo Samuel
- Michael Pittman
- Zay Flowers
- DK Metcalf
- Xavier Worthy.
Add to this the recent news of the Pittsburgh Steelers in talks with the San Francisco 49ers over a trade of Brandon Aiyuk. The Steelers would love to bring in an Aiyuk level of WR to lead this team towards another playoff birth. Whether the move materializes or not, it shows us the Steelers intentions. Any move like this would directly impact Pickens value negatively.
Drake London (ATL) – Reached Peak Value?
The easiest pivot for me this offseason is Drake London. Since Kirk Cousins moved he has seen a huge spike in value. I’ll start by saying I like Drake London, he was my Rookie WR1 of his draft class. I also certainly don’t regret being so high on him at the time.
His 2 seasons to date have been disappointing to say the least for fantasy. But, clearly there were reasons to explain why it hasn’t quite worked out. The QB play has been quite simply atrocious. Despite seeing a large target share, the connection hasn’t been there. London’s catchable target rate was just 73.4% (36th best in NFL). Enter Kirk Cousins who is right at the top of the NFL for accurate QB play (82.3% catchable target rate – 3rd best in NFL) and everyone is putting two and two together and getting a WR1 for fantasy.
I want to pump the brakes slightly and say I think he will be improved for fantasy but ranking him as a fringe WR1 is too rich for me and this is where I will happily sell and re-invest in a WR that’s already produced a WR1 season or I can re-invest in to premium rookie picks. The likes of Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Devonta Smith and Nico Collins all hover around the same range and are all names I would feel great about pivoting off Drake London for. Some you could probably get a small + on top as well!
AJ Brown (PHI) – Cause for Concern?
AJ Brown is truly one of the few elite WRs in the NFL. He’s carried me to championships before but for whatever reason his dynasty value is falling despite him still being in his prime and being a key part of a top 5 offense.
So why is he falling? I think it’s due to a number of small points, that combined, make people choose other WRs ahead of him in drafts. Firstly his drop-off last season was dramatic and recency bias is for sure a real thing in the dynasty landscape. AJ Brown was the WR2 averaging over 22 points per game over the first 9 games of the season. He was absolutely dominant and the Eagles offensively were scoring at will. The bye week couldn’t have come at a worse time either. From week 11 onwards, he dropped to the WR24 averaging over 10 points less per game!
Combine this with Devonta Smith actually increasing his production over this time span and out-producing AJ Brown, it had dynasty managers scratching their heads. This was very much 1A/1B rather than the WR1 & WR2 set order we assumed in the first place. Roll on into free agency and the Eagles added Saquon Barkley an elite, every-down, pass-catching RB into the mix. Meaning there are weapons everywhere you turn in this offense.
He’s as far down as WR9 in a well-known community-sourced dynasty rankings website, lower than he should be. He’s the oldest player ranked in the top 9 with incoming rookies Marvin Harrison Jr & Malik Nabers already ranked ahead of Brown. With young elite-upside WRs hovering behind him such as Drake London & Chris Olave, a good season for them could yet see AJ Brown slip further down the rankings. If I’m not all in this year, I really feel the time to cash out for peak value on Brown is here if it hasn’t already passed us bye!
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