Entering 2024, it’s easy to look back at IDP fantasy points and forget the context- so to help you here are some regression candidates. We’ve got some players that massively outperformed what is likely to be repeatable, or are likely to see their role change with a change in their team and new additions to their teams rosters:
- DaRon Bland (DB, DAL)
- Daxton Hill (DB, CIN)
- Nathan Landman (LB, ATL)
- Frankie Luvu (LB, WAS)
- Khalil Mack (DL, LAC)
- Bradley Chubb (DL, MIA)
DaRon Bland (DB, DAL)
Bland is an easy selection to be a regression candidate. Bland ended leading the league in interceptions last year with nine. But outside of that, he really didn’t perform all that well. He only managed 68 tackles on the season. A big part of that was the fact that Trevon Diggs was forced to miss the full season in 2023.
With Diggs set to return from injury, he is going to go back to being the star cornerback. That should mean that Bland goes back to covering the ‘secondary’ receiver on defense, so more opportunity. But, Bland is going to be overdrafted by people this offseason. Don’t let yourself be one of them.
Dax Hill (DB, CIN)
Hill was an important part of the Bengals last season, ending with over 100 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5 QB Hits, 2 INTs & 11 PDs. He looked like he would be a decent play for 2024, building on that strong performance to lead the secondary alongside Vonn Bell.
But then, free agency happened, and the team made a move to bring in Geno Stone. With the money that the team have invested in Stone, Hill isn’t likely to see as much of the field as he has in previous seasons. That’s going to have a significant impact in his production for 2024, making him a player that is going to need injury or big-plays to be productive for fantasy.
Nathan Landman (LB, ATL)
Landman stepped up for the Falcons, replacing the injured Troy Andersen. Finishing the season with 140 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and a single INT. But, despite his performances, it’s hard to see him having a role this season in the middle of the field for 2024.
Anderson should be available for 2024, and the team has already invested in Kaden Ellis. As a result of his lack of opportunity, if the team aren’t able to find a new role for one of these three, Landman is going to be the odd one out and see his production plummet.
Frankie Luvu (LB, WAS)
Luvu was signed by Washington in free agency, which wouldn’t normally be a cause for concern in itself. He was a key part of the Panthers defense, with over 120 tackles, 6 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. That put him towards the top fo linebacker scoring, but he could struggle to meet those same numbers now.
The team signed veteran Bobby Wagner, who has shown that he still has that sideline-to-sideline ability last season, which is going to have an impact on Luvu’s production. He should still be an effective IDP option, but he could struggle to hit those same highs this season.
Khalil Mack (DL, LAC)
Mack had a good season for the Chargers, stepping up for the team as Joey Bosa missed a significant amount of time through injury. He ended 2023 with 74 tackles, and a huge 17 sacks. Not too shabby at all. But, you have to dig into the splits across his games. Six of those sacks came in the Week 4 bloodbath against the Raiders and Aidan O’Connell‘s debut for the Raiders.
Heading into 2024, and a new look defense, Mack is surely going to struggle to hit those same highs as last season. That single performance inflated his sack number on the season, and Bosa should be fit to start 2024. With the team also adding Bud Dupree (who is like to be a rotation option- but still eat into Mack’s role) the veteran could struggle to hit the same highs as last season.
Bradley Chubb (DL, MIA)
Chubb is a prime regression candidate. He had a great season last year, leading the Dolphins in Sacks, Forced Fumbles and had decent tackle numbers too. The team gave him a bigger role after Jaelan Phillips was forced out through injury.
But, with the timing of Chubb’s ACL injury, he could struggle to be available to start the season. When you factor in Phillips’s return and first-round selection Chop Robinson, we could be a rotation of defenders this season. The team didn’t just stop there though, signing veterans Shaquil Barrett, Calais Campbell. The team allowed Emmanuel Ogbah and Christian Wilkins to leave this offseason, so there is some opportunity there. But, at his current cost in drafts, Chubb is an avoid for me.
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