Ahead of the 2024 regular season, we preview how the sophomore running back class performed. Before we get started it is worth mentioning the impact that Sophomore running backs can have in fantasy football. Nine of the top 24 PPR running backs in 2023 came from the 2022 draft class. And even more interestingly, only one of these nine managed to crack the top 24 as a rookie (Kenneth Walker). So not only are Sophomore running backs worth paying attention to, they may be undervalued based on their rookie performances.
Real NFL Football (ok, just pre-season) is underway and it’s finally time to switch to more of a Redraft mindset. Many of us will have been stuck in a Dynasty frame of mind since the Super Bowl and so it can be easy to get caught up in which of this year’s rookies will make an immediate impact. When we do this, we might forget about the Sophomores. So before the start of the 2024 season we’ll be taking a look at last year’s rookies, starting with the running backs.
Bijan Robinson
Bijan is a Sophomore that needs no introduction. He was a top 8 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the consensus 1.01 in all rookie drafts and the first rookie off the board in Redraft leagues. It’s only because of these lofty expectations that his finish as the RB12 (PPR) was a disappointment to managers in all formats.
But with a new head coach and Quarterback in Atlanta the optimism is back for one of the most talented runners in the league. He should be drafted in the first round in any Redraft league, regardless of format and remains the Dynasty RB1.
Redraft Verdict: Top 8 Pick
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB1/RB1
Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs was taken just four picks later than Bijan in the 2023 draft but had a little more to prove as a rookie, joining a Lions backfield that had just acquired David Montgomery. Despite being out-carried 219 to 182 by Montgomery, Gibbs averaged 16.7 PPR points per game on his way to top 8 fantasy finish. If it wasn’t for Montgomery there’s no doubt Gibbs would be alongside Bijan as a top 8 Redraft pick and in contention to be the Dynasty RB1.
There is his training camp hamstring issue to monitor though. The Lions are insistent that he isn’t going to miss any time in the regular season but his Redraft value would take a hit if it does linger.
Redraft Verdict: Borderline 1st Round Pick, Top 6 RB
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB2/RB4
De’Von Achane
On a points per game basis Achane was the top running back of the 2023 class as a rookie, averaging 17.8 PPR points. He achieved this thanks to a 50 point game and four other scores of over 20. The fact that this all came in just 11 appearances, two of which he only registered two touches, can be taken both ways. You can either be excited by his extreme efficiency (7.8 yards per carry, 8 rushing touchdowns from 103 carries), or you can be concerned by the fact he missed six games as a rookie.
His Redraft ADP is on the rise and it’s now unlikely he’s available in the 3rd round of many drafts. In Dynasty he’s fairly settled as the overall RB6, which is a significant rise on his KeepTradeCut market value of the RB36 at the start of last season.
Redraft Verdict: 2nd Round Pick
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB3/RB6
Tyjae Spears
The outlook for Tyjae Spears has fluctuated a few times since he was taken with the 81st pick in the 2023 draft. Being drafted by the Titans behind Derrick Henry could be seen as a blessing or a curse, but then not long after the draft we got the news that Spears was missing an ACL in one of his knees. He put in a solid rookie season and looked to be set for a breakout campaign when it was clear Derrick Henry was moving to pastures new.
But the Titans signing of Tony Pollard to a three year, $21million deal, pumped the brakes on the Spears hype train in both Redraft and Dynasty. Pollard was not impressive as the workhorse back in Dallas last year, averaging career lows in yards per carry (4.0) and yards per catch (5.7). So there is a path for Spears to gain a more significant share of the workload than he did last season. And who knows, maybe the Titans realise that Pollard is better off as the change of pace back, the role he excelled in as a Cowboy, and Spears takes on the lead role. But in a Titans offense that we expect to be below average he’s likely nothing more than a borderline top 24 back at best in 2024.
Redraft Verdict: 8th-9th Round Pick
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB4/RB20
Chase Brown
After not being fantasy relevant at all as a rookie, Chase Brown is everyones favourite breakout candidate from the 2023 running back class. This offseason the Bengals moved on from Joe Mixon and replaced him with Zack Moss. Moss was a more than capable deputy to Jonthan Taylor last season in Indianapolis but is entering a season on a different team for the third year in a row.
The reality is that this is likely to be a split backfield but have we really seen enough of Moss to assume he’s going to be the one getting the high value touches? Moss is being drafted about a round and a half ahead of Brown in Redraft and it feels like that gap should be, and will get smaller the closer we get to the season. The upside is there for Brown in what should be a very good offense and so he’s worth a shot in all formats.
Redraft Verdict: Zero RB Target – 7th/8th Round
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB5/RB30-35
Zach Charbonnet
It was a little disappointing to see Charbonnet drafted by the Seahawks in 2023 given they had just drafted Kenneth Walker in the 2nd round in 2022. While this is still Walker’s backfield, Charbonnet should be treated as a little more than just a handcuff. Under the new coaching staff, Charbonnet will need to improve on his disappointing rookie season which included him totalling zero yards on 13 carries inside the 10.
In Redraft Charbonnet is a priority handcuff with the potential for standalone value and he’s talented enough to be worth waiting on in Dynasty in case the situation changes.
Redraft Verdict: Priority Handcuff – 9th Round
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB6/RB30-35
Kendre Miller
Although he didn’t really show much as a rookie, this was supposed to be the year that Kendre Miller was injury free and primed to take over the backfield from an over the hill Alvin Kamara. But things haven’t exactly gotten off to the best of starts with a training camp hamstring injury. He’s nothing but a late round stash in Redraft at this point for those who still believe in the talent we saw at TCU.
Redraft Verdict: Final Round Stash
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB7/RB40-45
Jaleel McLaughlin
The Broncos backfield is a bit of a crowded mess with a couple of rookies being added to the three running backs from the 2023 roster. McLaughlin went undrafted but was by far the most efficient of the Broncos backs on the roster last season. His 5.4 yards per carry was surpassed only by Achane amongst running backs with over 75 carries. If I’m taking a shot on any one of the Broncos backs, I’m taking it on the one who showed that level of explosiveness. And the good news is he is the cheapest in Redraft (excluding the rookies).
Redraft Verdict: Late Flyer
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB8/RB40-45
Keaton Mitchell
Of running backs with 20 rush attempts, Mitchell led the league with 8.4 yards per attempt in 2023. He didn’t register a snap until week 7 and suffered an ACL tear in Week 15, so the sample size is small. And unfortunately that ACL tear along with the Ravens signing of Derrick Henry means he’s unlikely to be a factor in 2024.
Redraft Verdict: Undrafted
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB9/RB45-50
Roschon Johnson
The Bears offense looks set to be a completely different beast in 2024 but unfortunately the running back position doesn’t appear to be an area to target for Fantasy. They added D’Andre Swift early in free agency and he joins Johnson and Khalil Herbert in what looks set to be a three headed monster. The fact that the team felt the need to add Swift proves that they did not feel Johnson or Herbert could handle an every down role. He may well have his weeks but Johnson is only likely to be a consistent factor for fantasy if there is an injury or if Khalil Herbert moves on.
Redraft Verdict: Late Flyer
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: RB10/RB50-55
Emari Demercado
Demercado was a bit of a waiver wire darling early in the season with James Conner missing time. He posted ok numbers as a rookie when given the chance but will be at best the third running back on the Cardinals depth chart this year. He’s best left on the waiver wire in all formats barring a devastating run of injuries in Arizona.
Redraft Verdict: Undrafted
Dynasty Class/Overall Rank: N/A
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