Moving onto Week 1 of the 2024 season, and we are going to give you some DraftKings bargain bin plays for the week. These are plays that are on the ultra-value/ GPP contrarian side. So generally avoid these plays in cash game lineups, but in GPPs- especially big fields go for it!
You can find all of our DFS content here, and be ready for the week.
Jayden Daniels @ TB ($5,700)
I have already highlighted how much I love Jayden Daniels in my Slatebreakers article earlier in the week – but at only $5700, there was no chance he wasn’t making an appearance in the Values column as well. We’ve seen the college tape, Daniels can do it all – his senior year at LSU was littered with highlight reel plays, and oh so many touchdowns…40 of them to be precise. Across the entire NCAA, only Bo Nix connected more times with his receivers on scoring plays over the year with 45, and whilst the Broncos’ new man under center may have edged Daniels in the passing game, the Heisman winner blew the rest of the nation out of the water with his rushing prowess. His 1,134 yards on the ground are just a taster of what the LSU product will bring to the professional ranks, and gives him a very high floor for fantasy managers each and every week. I’m expecting BIG things from Daniels in his debut year, starting this Sunday in Tampa. He’s a locked and loaded top-12 option at the position, with week winning upside.
Baker Mayfield v WAS ($5,600)
My other value pick at the quarterback position this week will be on the other side of the ball from Daniels, my personal Comeback Player of the Year for 2023…Mr. Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After looking like it could have been the end of the road for Baker after a less than stellar 2022 season, which saw him makes starts for both the Panthers and the Rams – but after signing a one-year prove it deal for Todd Bowles’ men to replace the re-retired Tom Brady, everything fell into place for the former No.1 overall pick. Mayfield ended the season as the QB10 for fantasy, and had no fewer than 8 weeks as a QB1 across the year…he was a stud. Little has changed in Tampa, with the Bucs set to re-roll the dice with the majority of their offensive pieces staying in place for another playoff push. Baker was rewarded with a three-year $100m extension, arguably one of the best value deals in the NFL heading into the year. The Commanders DST were ranked 2nd worst against QBs in 2023…Mayfield will look to reconnect with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin early and often, as well as the customary dump offs to running back Rachaad White…but they all count. He’s a great value at only $5600 in week one.
Jerome Ford v DAL ($5,500)
Ford feels like a forgotten man entering the new season. In redraft formats his ADP is a staggering RB40, going as late as the 11th round on some platforms. Do fantasy managers not remember he was an RB2 or better eleven times last year after replacing the injured Nick Chubb? The former fifth-round draft pick finished the season as the overall RB17, rushing for 817 yards and scoring 4 touchdowns. Sure, Ford isn’t the sexiest name to be plugging into your lineups, and the Dallas defense is a very scary proposition, but Ford has done it against stout units before (remember his 121 total yards and 2 TDs against the Jets in week 17?). There are very few starters available at this price point – only Chuba Hubbard and Gus Edwards (are we sure he’s the starter?) are cheaper than Ford on the slate. Until Chubb returns from the IR, Ford is the guy – and who knows, even when the former rush-leader is back, we may see more of a timeshare approach from the Browns. He’s a safe floor play for cash lineups at $5500…don’t overthink it.
Rico Dowdle v CLE ($4,600)
Ok, I may have told a teeny, tiny white lie above, there is a third starting running back available on the slate for less than Jerome Ford, and it just so happens he’ll be taking the exact same field as Ford this Sunday. I am of course talking about the primary rusher for the Dallas Cowboys…Ezek…nah, only kidding – it’s Rico Dowdle! There are certain characteristics I look for in a running back for my DFS lineups:
- Are they on a good offense (Dallas were 4th in scoring in 2023)
- Do they catch passes (Dowdle went 17/144/2 on 22 looks last year)
- Is their team favoured to win…well, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad
I don’t for one second think the Browns will get the W over Dallas this Sunday, so I’m considering that a full sweep for Dowdle and expect to see him get plenty of work out of the backfield, establishing himself as the number one running back on this team, ahead of the returning Ezekiel Elliot. Rico ran at a respectable 4.1 Y/A in 2023 and clearly has the trust of the coaching staff if the best competition they could find to add to the depth chart was old man Zeke. Dowdle is by far and away the best value RB on the slate this weekend, plug him in and use that spare cash to spend up on those elite wide receivers.
Jaleel McLaughlin @SEA ($4,300)
We are entering dart-throw territory here, but this is an UDFA running back who very quietly put up 570 total yards and 3 touchdowns in his rookie season…not bad at all. McLaughlin is a speedster and is absolutely electric once he’s got a hold of the ball. Javonte Williams figures to be the guy in Sean Payton’s offense – bit with one of the weakest wide receiver rooms in the NFL (sorry Broncos fans, but it’s true) McLaughlin should see plenty of dump offs and short yardage targets from rookie QB Bo Nix as he gets acclimated to life in the professional ranks. The Seahawks were putrid against RBs last season, but entering the game as 6-point underdogs will probably cap any opportunity McLaughlin may see on the ground…but he’ll be there when Denver has to start chasing the game from behind. There’s risk involved here for sure, but at only $4300, he’s got decent upside to kick start your DFS season.
Tank Dell @IND ($5,500)
In what could possibly be the biggest injustice on the slate, Tank Dell is priced $1200 and $1500 cheaper than teammates Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins respectively. I say respectively, but that’s exactly what isn’t being shown to the sophomore wide receiver, returning to the fold after an injury-shortened rookie campaign. I don’t have enough superlatives to describe Tank Dell. Through 12 weeks of debut season, Dell was the overall WR14 in a full PPR format…ahead of teammate Collins at WR17. Yes, Houston has added Stefon Diggs from Buffalo, but did you see that guy play football over the second half of the season…woof. The former Bill’s end of year finish as the WR9 doesn’t tell the entire story. In weeks 10 through 18, Diggs plummeted to the WR44, behind the likes of Darius Slayton and Demarcus Robinson. In contrast, Tank Dell was the WR53 over the same time period…and he broke his leg in week 13! I am not worried about Diggs, and you shouldn’t be either. The Texans offense is one of the most potent in the National Football League and Tank Dell will quickly look to re-establish the rapport he created with fellow second-year player C.J. Stroud.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba v DEN ($4,900)
Another sophomore wideout I am very high on this year is Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It wasn’t the most exciting of rookie seasons for JSN, firmly behind veterans D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the Seahawks’ depth chart, feasting on scraps from a rather erratic Geno Smith. A year on and JSN will look to establish himself as the clear cut WR2 on this offense – most likely at the expense of Lockett, who will turn 32 before the month is out. Let us remember JSN was selected by the Seattle back-office with the 20th overall pick in last years’ NFL Draft, and they won’t want their investment wasting away in the shadow of Lockett for another campaign. Head Coach Mike Macdonald’s hand may be forced as early as week 1 at home to the Broncos, with the veteran pass-catcher entering the year far from 100% with a thigh injury. The time of JSN has arrived, at only $4900 he could be an opening day steal in a plus-matchup against a poor Denver outfit.
Andrei Iosivas v NE ($3,000)
I’ll save you the trouble of Googling…Andrei Iosivas is a sophomore wide receiver out of Princeton, drafted in the sixth-round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Cincinnati Bengals. Whilst many fantasy managers won’t be familiar with the name, if you happen to play your re-draft championship game in week 18 (and if you do, please, for the love of God stop), you will be more than aware of the WR11 from that week after he posted a stat line of 5/36/2 in the Bengals’ 31-14 against the Browns in the all Ohio clash. The real story behind this pick is not Iosivas’ talent, but rather the opportunity he may be afforded with those higher up on the depth chart possibly not suiting up on Sunday. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Tee Higgins has appeared on the injury report ahead of the season opener and looks set to miss out at home to New England. The bigger, and more concerning issue for Cincinnati management is the potential holdout of superstar WR Ja’Marr Chase, as he continues to play games over a new big-money deal. Be sure to monitor the Chase situation all the way up to kick off, but should both Higgins and Ja’Marr miss this one, Iosivas has some sneaky upside at a position minimum $3000.
Zach Ertz @TB ($3,600)
Strap yourself in for these, this is going to get a little bumpy. We’ll start with Zach Ertz, who now finds himself on the *checks notes*…Washington Commanders. After his season ended prematurely in week 7 due to a quadricep injury, Ertz negotiated his release from the Cardinals, only to land on the Detroit Lions practise squad as they pushed deep into the playoffs. Well, Ertz’s stint with the Lions ended with their defeat at the hands of the 49ers just 6-days after signing, and now he calls Washington home as he enters his 12th year as an NFL pro. The Commanders drafted Ben Sinnott in the second-round of this years’ NFL Draft for a reason…but currently being listed as the TE3 on the initial depth chart suggest he’s not quite ready to lead the charge at the position just yet, enter Ertz. Rookie Jayden Daniels will look to the veteran as a safety net when his legs can’t get him out of trouble, and with the Bucs being the second worst team against the position last season, there could be a touchdown on the cards for Washington’s current TE1. Just don’t be shocked if he ends the day with a stat line of 2/12/1…but at $3600, that will do just fine.
Greg Dulcich @SEA ($3,000)
Now we’re talking! The fantasy world seems to have forgotten all about Greggy D after an injury riddled 2023 season that cost him all but a couple of cameo appearances in weeks 1 and 6. Dulcich has sadly spent more of his career on the Injured Reserve than the field, but when he is there, he can be sensational for fantasy. In the ten games he played as a rookie in 2022, Dulchich finished as a top-12 TE in 60% of them – if he could just stay healthy, there exists a real possibility we would be talking about him in the same conversations as Evan Engram, Pat Freiermuth and David Njoku…he’s that good. The now third-year pass-catcher once again appears to be healthy, and should slot back in as the second look in the Broncos’ passing game behind Courtland Sutton. Rookie Bo Nix will benefit from a healthy Dulcich, and so will your fantasy lineups – if you’re looking to really punt the position but still have a shot at some glory, you could do a lot worse than Dulich and his luscious locks.
Tennessee Titans @CHI ($2,800)
I would normally advocate targeting any defense that is playing against a rookie quarterback, particularly a rookie quarterback making their NFL debut on the opening day of the season. The only problem here is, Caleb Williams looks good, really good, and with the game being played at Soldier Field, there’s a real danger this could turn out to be a Will Levis v Atlanta scenario…but it could also turn into a Josh Rosen affair, so keep an open mind. The Titans were a fairly middle-of-the-pack unit against the pass last season, but they did only surrender 20 touchdowns through the air. At $2800, they are very much in the frame to play the role of party pooper for the Bears big day.
Washington Commanders @TB ($2,500)
I am all in on Baker this week, and I think Tampa Bay wins this game and covers the spread, but if you’re looking for a DST in the $2500 or less range, the Commanders are your best shot at value. This unit was horrible against the pass last season, giving up the most touchdowns through the air to opposing teams with 39, oh they also surrendered the most passing yards too, bleeding 4,627 of them over 17-games…but when the going gets tough, the tough gets going…and the other budget DSTs have much more difficult matchups than Washington do in the form of the Bucs. If you need to stoop this low, I wish you good luck…just set it and forget it.
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