With Week 1 of the 2024 season in the books- time for a dynasty reaction! There were many things that stood our in Week 1 but my main takeaway from the first week of any season is not to panic. Especially as it was a historically down opening day for fantasy production.
If you have done your off-season work and got your dynasty team in a position that you’re happy with, don’t blow it up after 1 week. The NFL will have given us clues with player’s usages and roles in the 1st week but there are factors in any given week that will skew outcomes. Examples of these could be simply game-planning for the team’s opponents or whether they were playing with a lead or playing from behind. Be pro-active from what’s happened but don’t panic.
Atlanta Backfield
FINALLY Bijan Robinson is going to be elite. After last season’s frustration at his usage, the Falcons let the handbrake off Bijan Robinson and he dominated the RB room. 16.1 PPR points wasn’t anything ground-breaking but out-snapping Tyler Allgeier 50 to 10, 18 rushing attempts to Allgeier’s 3, running 23 routes to Allgeier’s 3 and seeing 5 targets with Allgeier seeing none is exactly what he needed. Bijan is firmly dynasty RB1 for me and if this offense can get going I really think he can chase down Christian McCaffrey in terms of production right now.
Houston Offense
There IS enough volume for 3 WRs to find production in Houston. Stefon Diggs (35 routes run), Tank Dell (34) & Nico Collins (33) all saw very similar usage in terms of routes and targets (6,8 & 8 respectively). Tank Dell was on the field for less snaps (was taken off the field in 12 personnel) but in 3 WR sets he was usually first or second read and heavily targeted. I want to try and acquire as many pieces of this offense as possible in dynasty and that includes Joe Mixon who on a contender will be set and forget for 2024 (30 carries in week 1!)
Anthony Richardson Hype
Anthony Richardson hype was merited. He’s raw as heck but the fundamentals are there for him to be a fantasy superstar. Remember this was only his 3rd full game in the NFL and in college he only had 1 full season as a starter. The 60 TD pass to Alec Pierce in the 1st quarter was absolutely beautiful, it was effortless and was everything we needed to see as dynasty managers. It was perhaps one of the best passes I’ve ever seen, pressured and not having much room to step into it, the ball travelled a full 65.3 yards in the air (3rd-longest completion in the Next Gen Stats era) and landed on a plate to the grateful receiver. 3 Total TDs in the game where he took some punishment but came away healthy is great and there’s so much scope for improvement (48% pass completion %).
Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers is going to be more of a factor then most of us projected. Leading the Raiders in Targets (7) while only featuring on 26 out of 45 snaps in 11 personnel, there’s scope for increased snaps and production especially if you factor in he’s been limited leading to week 1 with a foot injury. This was refreshing to see after one of the most bizarre weekends in a long time for Tight End production. None of the elite TE options managed double digit fantasy points with notable down games for Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce & Dalton Kincaid. Usages around the league were ugly with lots of teams rolling out multiple Tight Ends rather than featuring just one, something to monitor going forward. Bowers is someone I would invest pretty heavily in not just because of week 1 but because he already had the best college tight end production profile we’ve ever seen.
Year 2 Receivers
I’ve been all in on Jayden Reed seeing his usage when healthy for Green Bay last season. It continued in Brazil on Friday night with explosive play after and explosive play, whether it was through the air or on the ground on his way to the WR1 on the week finish. With Jordan Love out for the next few games I see it as a great buy opportunity if the offense stumbles while QB1 is on the sidelines healing up.
Rashee Rice started where he left off last season to, easily Patrick Mahomes favourite target in the season-opening win over the Ravens. 9 targets, 7 receptions for another 100+ yard game and with no suspension in sight, I would pay up for Rice who was the WR8 in points per game from Week 12 onwards last year and I currently have him over impressive rookie team-mate Xavier Worthy in dynasty.
The other year 2 receiver that impressed me this week was George Pickens. Accounting for over 50% of Pittsburgh’s stuttering pass offense, Pickens proved he was QB-proof by linking up with backup Justin Fields 6 times for 85 yards. No other receiver saw more than 2 targets and it was an effective performance even when seeing double looks by the Falcons defense. The only question being now, can he become a consistent producer as the clear No.1 target on the offense? If he can then I believe there’s scope for him to rise us much has 10 places in dynasty rankings (to a mid WR2) which would represent a large value rise.
RB Situations To Monitor
Rachaad White who once again was inefficient on the ground (15 attempts for 31 yards), operating better as a wideout than he is RB (6 receptions for 75 yards). Bucky Irving out-produced White with an impressive 62 yards on just 9 rushing attempts, he looked far more explosive and a threat to reel off a huge play. Irving carved into White’s usual 80%+ snap percentage and registered just 68% in week 1, will this continue to decline if Irving continues to look sharp?
There’s no denying that Travis Etienne is still the guy in Jacksonville but Tank Bigsby already looks different this year. Doug Pederson continues to double down on limiting Etienne’s workload to keep him fresh (something he installed in the 2nd half of 2023 that saw Etienne’s touches come down from 22 per game to 16) and this was apparent in Week 1 that saw Etienne and Bigsby both rush the ball 12 times. Etienne is still the goal-line work and saw 3 targets to Bigsby’s 0 but if Bigsby continues to see early-down work and is more explosive of the two (6.08 yards per carry compared to 3.67) then Etienne could fall away from being an elite option.
JK Dobbins welcome back to health and welcome back to us dynasty manager’s hearts, It’s been a long time since we could say that! There wasn’t much spark on offense for Los Angeles but Dobbins shined and looked explosive behind that impressive o-line. Out-snapping Gus Edwards and seeing more targets. Jim Harbaugh wants this team to run the ball and if the team can stay in games and get the running game going, then I expect high usage from both these RBs with Dobbins the current hot hand. A useful asset to flex on contenders and a great piece to trade away if you stashed him long enough and can’t truly contend this year.
The Denver running back room was always going to be intriguing to see the early usage and although all round it was completely ineffective, it showed us a glimpse. Despite Javonte Williams backers and having the most dynasty value, it was Jaleel McLaughlin that saw the most touches (15 to Javonte Williams’ 9). In a close game Sean Payton opted to deploy McLaughin in the most early down situations – 19 to Javonte’s 15 with Javonte Williams seeing the most snaps overall at RB. Flex plays at best, if I was to take a chance in dynasty on any of them it would be McLaughlin or pay a late round pick on Audric Estime who was given a couple of carries for 14 yards and might be given an increase workload if the top 2 continue to struggle.
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