With Week 8 of the 2024 season in the books- time for a dynasty reaction!
National Tight End Day!
The NFL teams certainly got the memo, it was a movement that swept throughout the day with TD after TD and big fantasy day after another. This was such a refreshing spectacle after the difficulties at the position over the first few weeks of the season. For an example of how bad it was, through the first 4 weeks, only 6 TEs were averaging 10+ fantasy points per game. Move forward to the last 4 weeks (weeks 5-8) and it’s increased massively to 16 TEs averaging 10 or more fantasy points per game. To further show this vast improvement, George Kittle the TE1 in PPG through the first 4 weeks of the season, averaged 14.4 PPG and since week 4 there have been 7 TEs average more than 14.4 PPG. The TE position has gone from major struggles to easy flex appeal and I think it’s here to stay. A combination of major WR injuries around the league and the fact that NFL defenses don’t want to get beaten vertically meaning more 2 high safeties, have allowed more usage for the TEs to prosper underneath as offenses adapt to what they are being given.
Jalen Hurts– Undervalued in Dynasty?
It’s not always been pretty for the Philadephia Eagles to start the year offensively. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith missed time to start the year and it’s clearly affected Hurts’ fantasy output. In the first 4 weeks of the season, Hurts was the QB10 in PPG at 17.9, not disastrous but he’s used to being a perennial top 5 fantasy QB with his Konami style. Getting AJ Brown back has been instrumental in getting Hurts going and since week 5 Hurts has been the QB2 at 26.6 PPG. Having his full array of weapons has opened up Hurts’ run game and 5 TDs in the past 2 games is not only ridiculous but not sustainable. The fantasy points he’s scoring are though as he’s been at this level consistently for the past few years. With the addition of Saquon Barkley at running back, this offense is rolling and Hurts is here to stay for a long time as a top fantasy producer. He’s way more of a buy than he is sell.
Bo Nix– Producing
I got the evaluation on Bo Nix wrong, he’s producing not just as a viable QB for the Broncos, but as a fantasy producer. I loved watching Bo Nix and his Oregon offense in 2023 but I had doubts that he could be a top QB and thus faded him when he was being drafted in Round 1 of Rookie superflex drafts. It turns out that I wish I had more than the one solitary single share of Nix following his impressive start to the season. His rushing floor has been the most impressive feature to his game from a fantasy perspective showing a decent floor especially in the most recent games. In the past 4 contests Nix has rushed for 61 yards and 75 yards in 2 of them, in the other 2 games he’s had a rushing TD to bolster his production. This past week saw his highest output from a passing perspective throwing for 284 yards and 3 passing TDs. QB3 in PPG over the past 4 weeks is so impressive considering the lack of elite talent surrounding him unlike the aforementioned Jalen Hurts. I’m trying to buy Nix in a few places but rather than throwing a 1st round pick at him, I’d much rather get him within a larger deal.
Positive TD Regression Coming
Positive TD Regression –Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson. I wrote 2 weeks ago about a positive TD regression candidate in Josh Jacobs, producing decent numbers but never quite making it into the end zone. That changed massively and they’ve certainly came since, producing 3 TDs in week 7 & 8. This week I’m targeting 2 more candidates, both TEs, who are either putting up good numbers or have underlying metrics just waiting to breakout. Trey McBride was dominant this week posting a stat line of 9 for 124 yards and lead the team with a 33.3% target share, it’s not dipped below 25% all season! TDs are coming. They are also coming for Jake Ferguson who continues to comfortably be the number 2 target in Dallas seeing another 8 targets this week as the team looks for answers on offense. Over the last 5 weeks he’s seen 7 or more targets in 4 of the games and is just yet to find the end zone which he found no difficulty in finding last season. He’s a buy for me at the TE position.
Second Half Breakout Candidates
Christian Watson, Ladd McConkey. Christian Watson is certainly flying under the radar and many have given up on the potential of Watson being super fantasy relevant again, I haven’t just yet and there some underlying metrics that keep me interested. The cold hard facts remain that now the Grene Bay Packers wide receiver room is healthy, it can be difficult to know each week who will receive the most usage and actively help your fantasy team. Watson has had another stop/start season dealing with nagging injuries but this week represented his highest snap share and highest targets of the season and dominated the snaps over Dontayvion Wicks who he has previously shared a rotation with. It wasn’t the big game that Watson is capable of but it’s a sign of things to come and if he can stay healthy think big things are coming for Watson. Ladd McConkey’s breakout would be far less surprising given his big performance in week 8, logging 6 receptions for 111 yards and 2 TDs. Justin Herbert has increased his passing attempts and output in the 3 weeks since the bye week which clearly signalled a slight change in pattern of attack for the Chargers. Herbert has averaged 288 passing yards since the bye, a huge increase on the previous 4 contests where it was almost exactly half at 144.5 passing yards per game. McConkey came into week 8 as questionable but reeled off his best performance of the season and has now seen at least 6 targets in all but one game this year, taking over the WR1 role on a team willing to pass more, arrow firmly pointing up for the rookie who could have a second half breakout.
Amari Cooper– Gets The Best From The Bills
Cooper unlocks the door to the Bills high powered offense, but I’m not buying him. Cooper clearly the best passing weapon for Josh Allen in terms of talent and experience but his arrival is of a bigger benefit to the other players on offense than it is for himself. Cooper’s snap share was slowly elevated this week (his 2nd game for his new team) up to 50% but the usage was very minimal seeing just 2 targets in a game the Bills dominated on the ground. This same offensive style that saw them win out down the stretch last season, it runs through the legs of James Cook and Josh Allen. There’s no doubt Cooper will come in clutch for this team and he’s a good bet for a TD reception each week but he won’t be hyper-targeted and I think managers hoping for a big bump in production, will be disappointed. If I’m looking at a target to buy on this team it would be the rookie Keon Coleman or already established WR Khalil Shakir, who both come at a cheaper price.
Puka Nacua– He Is Back!
Wow what a return it was for Puka Nacua, questionable coming into the contest, he was able to take to the field for 57% of snaps on his first game back off IR. The result was a terrifying 9 targets, 7 receptions for 106 yards in the victory against the red hot Minnesota Vikings. The chemistry back with QB Matthew Stafford was immediate and impressive and it’s a sign of things to come as the Rams get themselves back in the NFC West title picture. I think the buy window for Puka has gone but I’m still willing to overpay for his services if I’m on a contender. I’m hoping team-mate Cooper Kupp is able to keep himself healthy now because together I don’t think there will be many WRs down the stretch that out-produce Puka, he’s in the elite bracket.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Doubts?
On a longer path to success or lacking the ability to become a WR1? JSN came into the NFL with some sky high expectations coming from the well known ‘wide receiver factory’ over at Ohio State. Never forget the sentiments from former team-mates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave when they both said Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the best wide receiver of the trio. That’s certainly not transpired to success in the NFL, half way through season 2 and he’s STILL competing mainly with veteran Tyler Lockett for targets as the WR2 on the team. This week as the WR1 without injured DK Metcalf could have been the boom week we were hopeful for, unfortunately it was just the same old average performance 6 catches for 69 yards. The metrics say he’s at the same 19% target rate as 2023, Yards per route run is down slightly from 1.32 to 1.22 and Yards per target down to 6.3 from 7.0. JSN’s only standout performances so far this year was back in week 2 when he turned 12 receptions into 117 yards. The rest of the time he’s averaging just 4.4 receptions for 38.7 yards per game, the second year breakout is firmly on hold and will continue to be until a crucial year 3 when the Seahawks will likely let Lockett go who will be hugely expensive on the cap and will only come with a dead cap of $4 million. On a contending team, If you can find a big believer in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I’d look to move him on while he still has top 24ish WR value. If you are not contending, I’m absolutely fine with holding him into 2025, we know the potential is there and it’s hopefully worth the wait.
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