The TE1 didn’t used to be a battle at all- it was Travis Kelce, this season (after a strong rookie season) Sam LaPorta has been getting ranked above him in redraft. But, is Kelce on the decline for fantasy? Or has there been a handing of the torch to Detroit?
Travis Kelce
Competition for Targets
Kelce has the strongest relationship with Patrick Mahomes, and historically had been the clear lead receiver for the team. (Well at least in the years post Tyreek Hill). The team did bring in playmakers this offseason, in Xavier Worthy and Jared Wiley in the draft (as well as Marquise Brown in free agency). But outside of potentially Brown it’s unlikely that any of them are likely to command a decent number of targets. The player that is most likely to impact Kelce this season will be the availability of Rashee Rice, after he established himself as the leading WR on the depth chart.
There is far more certainty with Kelce’s situation than LaPorta’s. Rice’s situation for the season is still up in the air, but if he were to miss time it wouldn’t impact Kelce’s share in a negative way.
Availability
In 2023, Kelce missing the opening game was a big deal, as it was the first one that he missed through injury for years. Overall, his health isn’t a major concern, and the team are showing signs that they are looking to manage his workload. Kelce has seen his snap share reduce in each season since 2018, with just 77% of the snaps last season. Entering his age 35 season, he could see more managing of his workload.
| Game | Game | Off. | Off. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Age | G | GS | Num | Pct |
| 2018*+ | 29 | 16 | 16 | 993 | 95% |
| 2019* | 30 | 16 | 16 | 971 | 93% |
| 2020*+ | 31 | 15 | 15 | 899 | 86% |
| 2021* | 32 | 16 | 16 | 926 | 82% |
| 2022*+ | 33 | 17 | 17 | 914 | 80% |
| 2023* | 34 | 15 | 15 | 775 | 77% |
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2024.
Player Performance & Usage
Along with his reduction in snap share, Kelce has seen a steady decline in his efficiency stats. Throughout his career Kelce had averaged 12.7 yards per reception, with no single season lower than 12.2 Y/R. That was until last season where he ended up with 10.6 Y/R. Last season his efficiency stats across the board were lower than his career normals. His average YAC was 5.0, down from 5.8 from the three seasons before, and his aDOT was a full yard lower too, with his 6.7 average last year compared to 7.66 over the three seasons before that.
Kelce has been a key part of the Chiefs redzone production for years- consistently able to get free from defenders. That upside gives him week-winning ability. Just ask someone who was impacted by his Week 5 performance in 2022- 7 receptions for 25 yards and 4 TDs!
But, while the opportunity has been there for Kelce he hasn’t been able to convert that- with just 5 TDs from the redzone last season. For context, that is the same as Jerick McKinnon managed on just 8 opportunities.
There is a potential for a bump though in redzone TDs for Kelce for the upcoming season, with his target share.
Other Considerations
Kelce has a great situation in Kansas City, with Andy Reid scheming him free and his strong relationship with Mahomes. But, it’s worth noting that the backup QB in Kansas City is now Carson Wentz, who has shown a strong reliance on his TEs for production in his career.
The fact of the matter is that in a down year for Kelce, he still finished as the TE3, and wasn’t eclipsed in scoring by LaPorta as he had done to other TEs in previous seasons. The reason why people have such a reaction to his performance is they were expecting the version of Kelce we have had in previous seasons where he scores 90 points higher than the TE2. Those days seem as though they are over.
Sam LaPorta
Competition for Targets
The Lions have a clear lead receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, but after that the team don’t have any notable names at receiver. The team seem like they are leaning into using LaPorta as a receiver too, with the team stacking run-blocking TEs to fill out their depth chart. The potential unknown here is how the team are going to use Jahmyr Gibbs. Early reports are that the team are going to use him as a receiver, which could obviously impact LaPorta’s targets.
Availability
The Lions had some some panic at the end of the season around LaPorta’s health, as he limped off the field to end the regular season. But, other than that he was consistently on the field and was on the field for over 200 more snaps than Kelce was.
| Game | Game | Off. | Off. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Age | G | GS | Num | Pct |
| 2023* | 22 | 17 | 14 | 981 | 83% |
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2024.
Player Performance & Usage
LaPorta was quickly made the starter by the Lions, and had one of the best rookie seasons by a TE in history after his 120 targets converting to 86 receptions, 889 yards and 10 TDs. He was elite in nearly every metric last season, making defenders miss consistently and making plays. The Lions now know that they have an elite playmaker, and simply just need to get him the ball- which could lead to an uptick in his fantasy production.
The Lions made a lot of redzone trips last season, as their methodical downfield marches allowed it. The team clearly saw enough on their ground threat and OL ability though, with a huge majority of attempts coming from the ground.
Through the air, St. Brown was the lead target for the Lions. But, LaPorta was by far the most efficient. From his 15 targets he caught 11 passes for 93 yards and 8 TDs.
There isn’t likely much to change for the Lions on how it calls plays at the redzone either, with the key personnel from last year returning for the current year. Therefore, LaPorta has the ability to be an effective redzone weapon again for the upcoming season.
Other Considerations
Having Jared Goff throwing LaPorta is great for his fantasy outlook. Goff is limited with his arm talent, which means that he can’t push the ball downfield easily (or at least hasn’t consistently shown that in his career). Ben Johnson returning to call plays again is another huge plus for LaPorta’s outlook for 2024. The Lions are a team that look to establish the run before passing, but working as a short-yardage receiver, he has fits nicely.
Battle for TE1: Kelce or LaPorta- Verdict
So, given the above, who is more likely to finish as the TE1? LaPorta is primed and ready. Both situations are broadly the same as last season, so there shouldn’t be a huge change in their production (although injury can always shake things up). Infact, if injury risk were taken into consideration, it would likely impact Kelce more than LaPorta, given the age impact. That being said, Kelce isn’t a million miles away from him and has a tighter range of outcomes.
The real question for draft season is going to be if LaPorta is going to be able to be so much better than the TE2 that his draft cost is going to be repaid. The position is a little devoid of reliable talent, but I think the days of that gap being nearly the yearly score of some other positional player are over. You also can’t discount the ability
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