If there is one player that I’ve seen huge differences in opinion for their 2024 fantasy outlook- it’s De’Von Achane. He has shown he has the ability to be among the best at the position, with league-winning ability. But, he also had to deal with a number of injuries last year, and with high draft capital required (Round 2 or 3 in most leagues). It’s a fair ask
De’Von Achane 2024 Fantasy Outlook- The Bad
Injury Risk
Achane suffered a few injuries last season, which forced him to miss some time, firstly injuring his shoulder in Week 2 of the preseason (returning in Week 2 of the regular season). Then, after lighting up the league on the field, he then sprained his MCL, being put on IR and not getting back until Week 13. With that chunk of games missed in his rookie season, he has that ‘injury-prone’ label.
The thing is, injuries are somewhat random. Achane has been trying to get his body ready for another NFL season, and reports are that he is looking like he has added muscle ahead of training camp.
Workload Splitting
With the injuries that Achane picked up during the season, it’s unsurprising that the team didn’t really give him much of a share in their backfield touches. Instead, they looked to Raheem Mostert to lead the line:
The above graph shows the number of combined rush attempts and receptions that the Dolphins backfield had game-to-game. The redzone touches are even more heavily weighted toward Mostert. With Mostert having been in the backfield for the vast majority of red zone snaps and having an equally decent opportunity share too.
The team clearly still have a plan for him too, as they signed the veteran to a two-year contract. And Mike McDaniel hasn’t given any indication that the team are going to be making a change this season- infact they’ve mentioned giving all of their backs an opportunity on the field. That uncertainty of workload, in comparison to players that are being drafted a round or two behind is a genuine concern. But, Achane has shown he doesn’t need a lot of opportunity to be effective.
De’Von Achane 2024 Fantasy Outlook- The Good
Touch Efficiency
So yes, volume is a clear concern for Achane. But, he has shown that he can take any of his touches and make a big play with them. Looking at his past season, he is a player on his own in terms of efficiency. In what was (effectively) his first NFL game, he scored 4 TDs as part of that crushing win over Denver in Week 3.
He finished the season with a huge 7.8 yards per carry. That is ridiculous. Jamaal Charles had a historically epic season in 2010, and second in the record books with 6.4 YPC (with at least 100 rush attempts). Alvin Kamara in 2017 where he was burning teams for fun had 6.1 YPC. Achane is a more than a full yard further than that! He was also first in breakaway run rate, AND had more 40+ yard runs than anyone else in the league. Simply, similar to his teammate Tyreek Hill when he was with the Chiefs, give him the ball and watch him light it up.
Pass-catching ability & Usage
Achane is a good pass-catcher, and McDaniel knows how to use his offensive weapons effectively. Achane was spotted during OTA’s working with the receivers, so it could be that we see Achane being lined up out wide as well in the backfield. Pass-catching running backs always have massive fantasy viability, as they generally are game-script proof.
McDaniel in coming from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree has great appeal when it comes to fantasy RBs. They have consistently found ways to open gaps with their linemen for their backs to run through for big gains. This scheming is part of the reason why Achane is so efficient. When he has been given the opportunity, and a gap has been created, he explodes through it.
De’Von Achane 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Ultimately, the question comes down to- is Achane worth the draft capital that it’ll cost to get him? Well, he comes with risk- as I’ve outlined above. But, he does have the ability and situation to be a massive fantasy asset. If you draft him in the second or third round and he is able to be an efficient runner again (and I’m not expecting him to be as efficient as last season) then you potentially win your league. If he duds, then you might be sunk- unless you are able to hit on a late-round selection at the position.
But, as we have seen season after season, there is going to be a late-round gem that you are going to be able to find to fill a gap. Injuries at the RB position happen constantly. So ultimately, I think you take the shot on Achane if you are willing to do-or-die in your league. If you just want to be in the mix, look elsewhere for someone with a more settled situation.
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