Drafting the perfect QB. Easy to do right? Well, clearly not when you consider the number of QBs taken in the draft that flame out on the field (if they even get there). **THIS WAS WRITTEN AT THE END OF THE 2022 SEASON**
The 2022 fantasy season has come to an end for most of us and now we begin looking ahead to 2023 rookie draft season. For me, I have several leagues where I have a large amount of draft capital and these upcoming rookie picks will be crucial in determining when my team becomes a legitimate contender. In many of those leagues, selecting the correct rookie quarterback will be the make or break of my team. With such an emphasis on getting these picks right I thought I would look through the data of past quarterbacks to see if I could decipher or identify any trends that would increase my odds to hit on these vital rookie picks.
My study analyzed all 150 quarterbacks drafted since 150 and gives them a score based on five categories. Here is a breakdown of each of the five categories:
Draft Capital: Players were given a 1 if they were a top 10 pick, 0.5 if they were a first rounder taken outside the top 10 and 0 if they were taken outside of the first round. I find this to be of the utmost importance as quarterbacks taken outside the first round provided a useful fantasy season in only 7% of players. Draft Capital data can found at playerprofiler.com
RAS Score: Relative Athletic Score is a calculation of a prospects varies measurables and test scores to give a cumulative score. Players were given a 1 for any score between 8.0 and 10, they were given a 0.5 for any score between 5.00 and 7.99, and any player scoring 4.99 and under was given a 0 grade for RAS score. If a RAS score is not available due to injury or the player not testing, I grade it as a 0 as generally players avoid these tests only if they think they will grade out poorly. That may seem unfair but drafting quarterbacks is a gamble and I’d like to swing as much in my favor as possible, therefore no data is categorized as bad data because I don’t like unknowns in my rookie picks. RAS Score data can be found at rasfootball.com.
Wonderlic Score: The Wonderlic is a pre-draft aptitude test that many prospects take during the scouting combine. This measurable is also critical because intelligent quarterbacks tend
to have longevity in the NFL. Any score in the 70th percentile was
given a 1 while a score below that mark was scored as a 0. Wonderlic scores can be found at playerprofiler.com.
Breakout Age: Breakout age is the age when a college player first achieves a Dominator score of at least 20%. Any score of the 70th percentile or higher was scored as 1, any score below that mark was given 0. Both Breakout Ages and College Dominator Values can be found at playerprofiler.com
Rushing Yards/Game: I find this metric to be the least important of the five, however I included it because a rushing ability tends to give quarterbacks a safer floor and allows them more opportunities to produce. These stats can also be found at playerprofiler.com
After grading out all 150 quarterbacks from 0 to 5, I then took time to look back at the situation they were drafted into to see if their success or failure was influenced by having either a rookie coach or being drafted to a team with a losing record.
Now that we have gone through all the parameters and data used for this study, let’s look at the results. I won’t be breaking down all 150 quarterbacks individually but rather grouping them by Grade.
The Perfect 5 Stars
Marcus Mariota & Daniel Jones
Only two quarterbacks received a perfect score in the pre-draft process. Those players were Marcus Mariota and Daniel Jones. Both Jones and Mariota came into the NFL with similar circumstances but four years apart, both were drafted by teams with a losing record but by situations that were deemed to be stable.
Jones and Mariota have both shown flashes of brilliance and inconsistency through their careers, but the difference so far is that Mariota never took the next step as a passer and instead relied on rushing and forcing inaccurate throws while this season Daniel Jones appeared to take a step forward as a passer and finished as the QB8.
The five-star quarterback prospects are safe, they may never reach the pinnacle of their position, but they have all the tools, the draft capital and intelligence to succeed long term.
The difference between high end stud and serviceable fantasy asset seems to be how quickly the team they are drafted to is able to turn it around and become a contender. A five-star prospect who manages to land in a situation with a competent head coach is a sure-fire, long-term fantasy stud and must be drafted early in rookie drafts.
The Lone 4.5 Star
Johnny Manziel
Johnny Manziel was the only prospect who scored 4.5, the lone knock on his profile was that he was drafted outside the top 10 picks. Manziel showed every indication of having all the tools to be a fantasy asset, but his situation seems to have been largely influenced by his landing spot.
Manziel was drafted to a bottom feeding Browns team with a defensive coordinator in his first season as a head coach. The Browns did pretty much everything wrong in bringing along this immature prospect who probably would have benefitted from being a backup for a few seasons instead of being thrust into the spotlight from the start.
Johnny Manziel is a prime example of why no prospect is can’t miss, even with a 4.5-star prospect you need to be cognizant of the situation they are going in to.
The Solid 4 Stars
Mahomes, Allen, Luck, RGIII, Kaepernick, Gabbert, Locker
In the 4-star range we have a collection of players who are among the best at their position as well as a few who were total busts.
Let’s start with the best of the bunch, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Both Mahomes and Allen were drafted into optimal situations with veteran coaches and successful teams, both were also shown time and patience to mature before being thrust into the spotlight. These two are a shining example of just how great an imperfect prospect can be when put in a position to succeed.
Andrew Luck is the third star in this group but Luck’s chances of becoming a success early were lower as the Colts entered the 2014 season with a rookie head coach to go with their rookie quarterback, the saving grace for Luck was that he took over a ready to win team that was still seeing success after the previous departure of Peyton Manning.
Next, we have Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III. Neither player went to an ideal situation and neither one had a perfect prospect profile. These two are hard to judge as both had success and should be classified as hits but both saw a limited window in their value as their careers came to a premature end due to injury and political reasons.
The final players in this group are Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert went into an ideal situation but was a statue at quarterback and was unable to develop into anything more than a career backup, while Locker went to a mediocre Titans squad and showed difficulty processing the game quick enough which is likely correlated to his 5th percentile Wonderlic score.
There’s no definitive reason for failure in these two, instead it just goes to show what the floor is for a talented prospect that lacks either intelligence or rushing ability and who lands in a less than ideal situation early in their career.
The 3.5 Star Ram
Jared Goff
Jared Goff was the lone prospect to receive the 3.5-star grade. Goff came into the NFL showing a lack of mobility and athleticism but with great arm talent.
Goff came into a decent situation with the Rams as they were on the upswing with an innovative young coach in Sean McVay and while Goff has never been an elite fantasy quarterback, he has been a consistent and trustworthy one who took the Rams to the Super Bowl.
Goff’s prospect profile was right on target as he continues to be a great quarterback but one who lacks top 5 potential due to limited athleticism. Here we see the definition of solid, Goff won’t win you a championship, but he is as reliable as they come, sometimes you just need to trust the profile and draft a solid QB2.
Not every pick in rookie drafts needs to be a home run, Goff is proof that doubles can help your team too.
The Boom or Bust 3 Stars
Hurts, Bradford, Russ, Herbert, Cam, Wentz, Hundley
This group was difficult to analyze as we have some huge hits and some massive misses. Let’s start with the successful players. Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Justin Hebert, Cam Newton, and Carson Wentz, all provided us with high end fantasy production at some point in their career, some are still doing so.
These five all lacked one or more tools to be considered a perfect prospect, but they all share one of two situations that likely contributed to them being a successful three-star instead of a bust.
Hurts and Wilson both lacked draft capital and scored low on the Wonderlic test however they were both drafted into ideal situations with coaches who knew how to maximize their skillset, not to be negative toward these two high end quarterbacks but I believe they are largely products of their environment which can be evidenced by the rapid decline of Russell Wilson once he was taken out of Pete Carroll’s’ system and put into a system that instead relied on him to be intelligent and competent.
The other three success stories in this group were Justin Herbert, Carson Wentz, and Cam Newton. The three landed in a variety of circumstances but the common denominator among them was top 10 draft capital and great athleticism.
These three were stars very early in their career and produced at least one elite season further illustrating why I believe draft capital to be so important.
Now we go to the bust side of the three-star list. Brett Hundley, Easton Stick, Sam Bradford, and Chandler Harnish. Hundley, Stick, and Harnish all lacked draft capital and despite their numerous physical tools none were drafted before day 3.
Day 3 quarterbacks are simply not a winning wager for fantasy managers. Talented or not, they are unlikely to ever experience long term and sustained success. Sam Bradford is the unique prospect here as he was taken with the first pick of the 2010 NFL draft.
Bradford came into a mediocre situation showing above average arm talent but had relatively no athleticism or rushing ability and never progressed to the point of being an asset. Bradford is the prime example of over drafting a quarterback with limited tools based solely on need.
2.5 Star Dart Throws
Watson, Lamar, Love, Ehlinger, Ponder, Darnold, Rosen
In this section we have two great success stories in Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, both showed great physical tools, were drafted in the late first round and went to stable situations with teams that were playoff caliber.
Both fell outside the top 10 picks due to low Wonderlic scores and fears of their ability to process the game, but both have shown the ability to be an elite fantasy quarterback.
The other six prospects who received this grade have all been busts. Zac Robinson, Jordan Love, Sam Ehlinger, Christian Ponder, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen fall in this category. Love, Ponder, Darnold and Rosen were all first round picks but all four lacked rushing upside and scored lower than average on the Wonderlic and may have lacked elite processing ability as a quarterback.
All four went to decent situations for a rookie but none were able to progress enough to warrant the draft capital spent on them.
Another shining example of why quarterbacks with low Wonderlic scores and limited rushing abilities rarely return on their lofty draft capital.
The remaining two in this group are Zac Robinson and Sam Ehlinger, both of which were taken with day three draft capital and that is reason enough to have passed on them in fantasy drafts.
The 2.0 Majority
Tyrod, Geno, Jameis, Dak, Trubisky, Baker, Burrow, Lance, Tannehill, Murray, Lawrence, Z Wilson…
This group has more players in it than any other and because of that I will only be discussing the notable hits and misses. You have players who came into the league in all situations ranging from playoff teams with solid coaching to bottom feeding teams with rookie coaches.
The studs that fell into group of two-star prospects consists of players with first round draft capital, these players lacked a perfect profile because they either had some blips on their profile in combine testing or in the case of Burrow, Lawrence, Wilson and Murray did not participate in some of the tests and therefore had no measurable to grade.
The four quarterbacks who didn’t test were all considered elite prospects and were all taken as either the first or second picks which should have indicated to fantasy managers that they were trustworthy prospects despite the lack of testing data.
With respect to the players who poorly tested such as Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater, each of the four showed a major hole to their game during scouting and this negative grade led to them being scored so low on my chart, all four were still drafted in the first round but saw mixed results as some of those issues crept back into their game.
This grading of players that were first rounders but who fell due to massive flaws is the boom or bust unsafe portion of the draft where we really don’t know what we are going to get when all is said and done.
This type of player can be drafted based solely on their NFL draft capital but temper expectations and don’t use an early rookie pick on them.
The other group of players who emerged from this level with some level of NFL success were Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, and Dak Prescott. All three were taken outside the first round and in the case of Taylor and Dak they were day three picks.
These three players were all considered long shots to succeed in the NFL and were more likely to be grouped with the large number of bust players that I wont discuss from this group, due to a combination of low draft capital and poor testing numbers.
Dak was the only hit of the group but was largely a fluke who only got his chance due to the retirement of Tony Romo, Taylor and Geno were both largely busts who either broke out many years into their career or have bounced around as journeymen backups.
The lesson to learn from the two-star group is to follow draft capital. The draft capital instantly makes them less likely to bust and while this group did provide us with Dak Prescott from day three, he was a perfect storm of circumstances that are rarely replicated outside of players not named Tom Brady.
All of the Rest
All the remaining prospects on this list graded 1.5 stars or lower and even the ones with draft capital were considered long term projects.
The highlights of this group are Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields. Fields was a prospect that many managers avoided due to the past track record of Ohio State quarterbacks, while Tua was fresh off a season ending injury and subsequent surgery which led to great uncertainty in his future, but again despite these flaws their draft capital allowed them enough opportunities for their talents to show through.
The other notable players to be graded towards the bottom of this list are Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr.
Both Cousins and Carr were taken with mid to late draft capital and both profiled to be journeymen backup type quarterbacks.
Neither has ever taken the step into the range of elite quarterbacks but both have been reliable QB2’s for the latter part of their career.
There were 82 quarterbacks who I graded as 1.5-star prospects or lower, of those 82 the four mentioned above were the only ones to experience a top 12 finish in fantasy which means a hit rate of 4% for players in that range.
In Closing
You’ve seen the study and I’m sure the trends here are
as obvious to you as they were to me:
1. Chase draft capital: Quarterbacks taken as top 10 picks must be rostered in your fantasy leagues, as do quarterbacks drafted at any point during the first round. Quarterbacks taken on day two should be monitored and added from time to time when the situation gives them an opportunity. I know Brock Purdy is all the range this season, but day three quarterbacks are a fool’s wager, for every Brady, Prescott and even Purdy there are hundreds of quarterbacks like Kellon Mond who will likely never start a game for your fantasy team.
2. The second thing to consider is athleticism and intelligence. The quarterbacks who are both athletic and intelligent are the ones to target. Athleticism gives them a solid rushing floor while they find their way and intelligence allows them to adapt to there situation giving them longevity at the position.
3. Team situation. It may not be as important as draft capital but a rookie coach and team devoid of weapons can kill the value of even the most elite prospect. The majority of the top 10 players on this list who were busts were drafted to situations that were a mess, situations where they weren’t given time to mature, and they were ruined as prospects.
4. Follow the pre-draft prospect profiles. Out of 150 quarterbacks scouted the overwhelming majority of successful ones came from prospects rated 2.0 stars or high, which means right off the bat you can eliminate have of the field without even looking at secondary data.
The Perfect Quarterback does exist.
Draft Capital in the top 10
RAS Score of 8.00 or higher
Wonderlic Score in the 70th percentile or higher
Breakout Age in the 70th percentile or higher
Rushing average of 25 yards per game minimum in college.
A coach with experience and a track record of success
A team with weapons and a winning history.
If any quarterback in the 2023 rookie class meets these criteria sell the farm to get him because he may be the GOAT.
*As of the release of this article (post combine, pre draft) only two quarterback I’ve studied meet the available criteria. Houston quarterback Clayton Tune and Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson. They can both grade out as perfect if they receive top ten draft capital and a good landing spot. Richardson has a chance to get top ten draft capital, Tune does not.
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Image Credit: Katie Stratman – USA TODAY Sports
