Starting Divisional weekend for the 2022 season- the DraftKings showdown, Jacksonville @Kansas City. With the teams whitling down in the playoffs, the ‘main’ slates are starting to become more like showdowns. This one should be a good one to watch (I hope) with two QBs that are comfortable in their offenses, and are going to need to move the ball to put up points for this 53ish O/U.
DraftKings Divisional Showdown 2022 – Jacksonville @Kansas City Captain Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($18,600 Capt/ $12,400 Flex)
Mahomes is one of the few QBs that is always in consideration for a CPT play. He is pricey, so it’s going to mean taking some shots at cheaper plays on the slate, but he screams big-play performance. Mahomes has been having big numbers all season, with the majority of games over the 300-yard bonus and multiple TDs. With how he has been running around the endzone too, could get a score on the ground.
Travis Kelce ($16,500 Capt/ $11,000 Flex)
The thing with the Chiefs is finding the receiver that is going to perform- the one exception being Kelce. He has a significant target share, and has been a matchup nightmare all season. Outside of Mahomes, Kelce is likely to be the highest scorer on the slate. With the discount from Mahomes, I could see him being a chalky play on the slate though.
Zay Jones ($9,600 Capt/ $6,400 Flex)
Jones is a great play on the slate, with his performances making this receiving group more of a 1A/ 1B situation. Jones has been excelling in the role the Jaguars have for him, giving him a huge ceiling on the slate with the weakness of the Chiefs secondary. With the Jaguars likely to air it out to keep up with the Chiefs, there should be plenty of targets to go around here.
DraftKings Divisional Showdown 2022 – Jacksonville @Kansas City Flex Picks
Trevor Lawrence ($10,400 Flex)
Lawrence doesn’t quite make the cut to be a CPT on the slate, but is a nice flex play. Lawrence is going to need to air it out in this contest, either to keep up with the Chiefs in a shootout, or pull back from a points deficit. With the performance of the overall offense, Lawrence should be able to put up some points against this weak Chiefs secondary. With his rushing upside too, a nice play alongside Jones as CPT.
Travis Etienne Jr ($8,800 Flex)
Etienne feels like a risky play on the slate, given the pricing. He gets plenty of carries, but isn’t really used in the passing game. The Chiefs defensive line and game-script are going to restrict his volume in this matchup. Is going to score a TD to hit value as a result, something that Etienne has struggled to do this season.
Christian Kirk ($8,600 Flex)
The difference in pricing between Jones and Kirk feels too high considering their usage. Kirk has had plenty of strong performances this season, but has also had plenty of duds. I prefer paying down and getting a higher ceiling in Jones on the slate. But I could see people going this way, given his HUGE game against the Chiefs in Week 10.
Jerick McKinnon ($7,400 Flex)
McKinnon is on a huge scoring streak, despite getting minimal touches in the offense. Has scored nine TDs in his last six games. Being used mainly as a receiver too, which helps with DK’s PPR scoring. The pricing feels steep though, after only having 21 combined carries and targets in the last 3 games for the Chiefs. As a result, I won’t have too many shares of him as I shoot for cheaper upside.
Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,000 Flex)
Smith-Schuster is an odd player to consider here. He seems to have completely shifted role during the season, as the deep options for the Chiefs have excelled. Not getting too many targets in the offense as a mid-range option, with just 9 in his last 3 games. Has the ability to get into the endzone, but the pricing feels high on the slate.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,600 Flex)
Pacheco hasn’t been used in the passing game, which hurts his floor with DK’s scoring. But, he has been used plenty on the ground this season. If the Chiefs get out to a strong lead here, they could look to Pacheco to control the clock. Really though, you need him to get into the endzone to smash value on the slate- something he hasn’t managed to do consistently. With the Chiefs using McKinnon in the redzone, Pacheco feels like a tough play on the slate.
Evan Engram ($5,800 Flex)
Engram has been a big-part of the Jaguars offense performing at the end of this season. Has been getting plenty of checkdowns in the offense, as well as some mid-distance targets. Going to be popular on the slate at the price, especially after his performance last week against the Chargers. Has a great balance of price and production, and allows you to add more higher-priced plays on the slate.
Kadarius Toney ($5,400 Flex)
Toney has been getting on the field for some gadget plays, and performing with his limited opportunities. Has scored 3 TDs with only 17 targets and 5 carries on the season. I’ll take some shots on him, because he is going to be used in gadget plays with a high chance of scoring a TD, but don’t get carried away- the pricing and overall usage make him a GPP-play only.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,200 Flex)
Valdes-Scantling is a perfect play on a showdown. Gets plenty of targets in the offense, and is only ever one deep-pass away from putting up a big-score. With Mecole Hardman ruled out, he is the only (consistent) deep threat for Mahomes. Against this Jaguars secondary already needing to deal with the other weapons the Chiefs have, Valdes-Scantling could ball out here. When these teams met earlier in the season, he caught 3 passes for 60 yards and a TD.
Marvin Jones Jr ($4,800 Flex)
Jones has been getting more involved in the offense to end the season, but still isn’t doing too much overall. Jones is probably the third or fourth option receiver in this offense. The positive is that the Jaguars have been passing it out plenty of times in recent weeks, but he is likely to need to fall into the endzone to hit value here, after only having more than 65 yards one time this season. I’d rather pay a little more for one of the Chiefs receivers at the price.
Ronald Jones ($2,600 Flex)
Quick nod to Ronald Jones, who came from nowhere to get 10 carries last week- one of which he converted to a TD. With his limited usage this season, he could go back to being practically inactive here. Not going to take a shot here.
Skyy Moore ($200 Flex)
How many receivers do the Chiefs have!? Well, they have one that is returning from injury and is min-priced on the slate. Moore has been getting patchy usage in the offense all season, with just a couple of targets on average. But, he has the ability to make plays and big-gains, and doesn’t need to do much at all to smash value on the slate.
DraftKings Divisional Showdown 2022 – Jacksonville @Kansas City Kickers and DSTs
The kickers have some appeal on this slate, given the floor they give you, but I’m not sure how many builds I’ll have with them. Harrison Butker ($4,200) has been limited to PATs this season, with just 24 FG attempts this season, with half of those from 40 yards or deeper. With the way the Chiefs offense has been performing this season, they haven’t had too many stalled drives. Against the Jaguars defense, I can’t see that changing which limits his appeal. Riley Patterson ($4,000) on the other hand has been getting FG attempts, and has been a key part of the Jaguars success in their playoff push. I’m not sure if the Jaguars will be able to settle for FGs in this one though, which limits his appeal.
I’m not really interested in the defenses in this one. The Chiefs DST ($4,400) have been able to get to the QB consistently this season, with 55 sacks this season. When these teams met in Week 10, they sacked Lawrence 5 times. But, their issue is that they have struggled to limit teams scoring points and forcing turnovers. Equally the Jaguars DST ($3,200) I just can’t really take a shot on here. They don’t have enough playmakers to consider them against this Chiefs offense that is going to be moving the ball for fun. They could have a repeat of their performance against Dallas, but it will need them to score a TD for them to do anything here.
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