The first AFC Divisional Round game this weekend sees Baltimore travel to Buffalo, in a tasty matchup between Lamar Jackson’s Ravens and Josh Allen’s Bills. Both QBs put up big scores in their respective games last week, and whilst both teams’ offences have been firing on all cylinders this year, this game actually has the second lowest O/U of the weekend, at 49.5, with Buffalo currently sitting at 2.5 point favourites.
DraftKings Showdown 2020: Baltimore @Buffalo Captain Picks:
Josh Allen ($18,000 Captain/ $12,000 Flex)
With so many expensive pieces on this slate, paying up for one of the QBs limits your options elsewhere. However, if you go down the route of playing one of them in Captain spot, Allen would be my preferred option. It really is a toss-up between the two, as I imagine them to score similarly. Whilst Jackson has tremendous upside with his rushing ability, as we saw with his 48-yard TD run last week, I trust Allen more through the air, and think he should just outscore Jackson. If Buffalo fall behind early, Allen will be forced to air it out early. However, we’ve seen multiple times this year that Buffalo trust the passing game even when ahead, so I can’t see Buffalo going too run-heavy, meaning Allen should get plenty of opportunities for big plays.
Mark Andrews ($12,000 Capt/ $8,000 Flex)
Baltimore’s targets in the passing game almost all belong exclusively to Andrews and Brown. As the cheaper option, I prefer Andrews here, especially with Buffalo’s weakness versus the TE position. Through the regular season, only 4 teams surrendered more DKPTS per game to opposition TEs, with only the Jets surrendering more yards per game to the position. If Baltimore fall behind early, and Jackson is forced to through, I expect Andrews and Brown to be the only real threats to the Buffalo defence. Whilst Andrews had a quiet game last week, he is currently +200 to score on Saturday, and if he hits pay dirt, could put up a solid score in the Captain spot. Last week, Colts TEs went for 14-136-1 versus Buffalo, so I love Andrews in this spot on Saturday.
Gus Edwards ($3,900 Capt/ $2,600)
Again with so many viable options to pay up for, I’m finding it difficult to fade any of the big names. To be able to fit them all in, it’s looking like it could be worth taking a TD-dependent punt at Captain, especially in large-field GPPs. Edwards is definitely my favourite value option on this slate, as he essentially splits snaps 50/50 with Dobbins in the Ravens backfield, yet comes in $6,000 cheaper. Whilst Dobbins does see more of the red zone and goal-line work, it’s difficult to avoid the value Edwards offers, especially if he does find the end zone.
DraftKings Showdown 2020: Baltimore @Buffalo Flex Picks:
Lamar Jackson ($12,200 Flex)
Jackson has been phenomenal down the stretch this year, and again showed his rushing upside at Tennessee last week. Only 2 teams have allowed more rushing TDs to opposing QBs than Buffalo this year, so Jackson again has a good opportunity for a big game, and it’s hard to overlook him on Saturday.
Stefon Diggs ($11,000 Flex)
Diggs has obliterated opposition defences all season, and I can’t see this matchup being much different. He continues to serve as the focal point in the passing offence, seeing 21.9% of Buffalo targets. Week after week, Diggs continues to put up big scores, and went 6-128-1 last week versus Indianapolis.
Devin Singletary ($7,200 Flex)
With Zack Moss now out, Singletary looks to serve as the primary back in Buffalo. Having seen a 50/50 for most of the year, it appears he should now be a three-down back, starting on Saturday. In the three games he’s played this year without Moss, Singletary averaged 14 carries, and 4 targets per game. Although Baltimore locked up Henry last week, Singletary poses more of a threat in the passing game, and could do well versus Baltimore with Moss’ absence.
Gabriel Davis ($5,600 Flex)
With John Brown back from IR, it looked like Davis would see a backseat in this offence, and serve as WR4. However, last week he caught 4 of 4 targets for 85 yards, and Brown put up a goose egg. Davis’ snap count took a hit with Brown back in action, but the targets still look to be there, and Davis could certainly do well here.
Justin Tucker/Tyler Bass ($3,800 Flex/ $3,600 Flex)
On a slate very limited in value, either kicker is definitely in play. Both Tucker and Bass have been great this season, and are reliable pieces on this slate. Bass comes in $200 dollars cheaper, and hasn’t missed a FG in his last 4 games; a span in which he is averaging 10 DKPTS over.
So, there are our DraftKings selections for the 2020 Showdown of Baltimore @Buffalo! Remember any DFS questions, you can check out our articles here. Or you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
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