Kicking off the 2020 Conference Championship Sunday, we are treated to a matchup between two future Hall of Famers, with Tampa Bay @Green Bay, and we have your DraftKings showdown covered. Tom Brady’s Buccaneers travel to the Wisconsin tundra to face Aaron Rodgers. These two offenses have been hot coming into the play-offs. Since then, they’ve shown no signs of slowing down these past couple of weeks. Vegas currently has Green Bay as 3.5-point favorites, with an O/U of 52. Meaning it’s shaping up to be a back and forth high-scoring affair.
DraftKings Showdown 2020: Tampa Bay @Green Bay Captain Picks:
Davante Adams ($17,400 Capt/ $11,600 Flex)
Adams has scored at least 20 DKPTS in 6 of his last 8, and has even gone 30+DKPTS in 6 games this year. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been solid this year, but their pass defense – not so much. Of the 4 remaining play-off sides, Tampa Bay has been the worst versus opponent wideouts by some margin, giving up almost 40 DKPTS per game to the position. Adams looks again to have a big game on Sunday and should be the highest scorer on this showdown slate.
Chris Godwin ($11,700 Capt/ $7,800 Flex)
With Brown being ruled out of this one, Evans and Godwin will almost certainly see an uptick in usage in the passing attack. As the cheaper of the two, Godwin is my preferred choice, especially if you’re using one in the Captain spot. A further issue drawing me away from Evans is his potential matchup in the Green Bay secondary. When these two sides met in Week 6, Evans was shadowed by Jaire Alexander, covered by him on 78.6% of his routes. If this is the case again on Sunday, Godwin will likely be a far more viable option of the two. I would not disregard Evans completely. However, given his elite calibre, it just makes his lofty price-tag slightly less appealing, especially in cash games.
Scotty Miller ($2,700 Capt/ $1,800 Flex)
My favorite value Captain on this slate has to be Scotty Miller. Again, with the absence of Brown on Sunday, it provides a bit of a boost to the other Tampa Bay receivers, and Miller looks to benefit the most at his low-price. Despite his limited opportunities this season, Miller has shown a connection with Brady and has had some big games. He only saw the field on 8 offensive snaps last week, but has proven to be a reliable downfield receive. Miller actually ranks 3rd on the team in fantasy points per touch, behind only Evans and Godwin. If this game plays out like the shootout Vegas is predicting, look for Scotty Miller to be involved in some capacity. Whether you slot him in at Captain to fit all the studs in, or play him in the Flex, I think Miller is a must-have in cash game line-ups.
DraftKings Showdown 2020: Tampa Bay @Green Bay Flex Picks:
Aaron Rodgers ($11,200 Flex)
Whilst the Bucs held Rodgers to just 5.8 DKPTS in Week 6, I don’t expect that to be repeated on Sunday. In the 12 games they’ve played since, Tampa Bay has allowed multiple passing TDs in 9 of those. Equally, the Packers come into this game having scored 30 points on offence in all but 1 of their last 5 games. Again, in a game that could turn into a shootout, Rodgers should put up a big score in the Lambeau snow.
Tom Brady ($10,600 Flex)
TB12 is just one win away from his 10th Super Bowl appearance, and has been solid through the last 2 games. He went off versus Washington, but was slowed slightly last week in New Orleans. Despite this, it’s clear that this Tampa Bay offence is pass-first, with Brady averaging 36.5 passing attempts per game. He’s down one of his receivers in Brown, but with Evans and Godwin still on hand; it’s difficult to see Brady not having at least a solid game. I was on the fence about playing Brady today, given this tough matchup which sees him face PFF’s 3rd-best coverage graded secondary. However, Green Bay has struggled getting to the QB this year, producing the 7th-lowest pressure percentage, and with Brady’s elite ability to read coverage, I expect him to have a solid day if he’s allowed time in the pocket.
Allen Lazard ($6,600 Flex)
If you’re stacking the Packers’ pass attack, Lazard comes in as my second-favorite option behind Adams. Lazard went 4-96-1 on 8 targets last weekend and trailed only Adams in routes run and snap share. He’s expensive and quite TD dependent, so is perhaps more of a GPP option. But I have no issues playing him in the Flex, given the amount of value on offer on this slate.
Ronald Jones II ($5,400 Flex)
This is an interesting one, and certainly comes with its risks. Almost every DFS site I’ve looked at seems to think Fournette will be the lead back once more, given the injury risk surrounding Jones. However, Jones practiced in full on Friday, and told reporters his quad feels better. Honestly, if he practiced in full, I just can’t see him being limited come game time. Like I said, this carries its risks, as we saw against Washington two weeks ago. But at such a low price, I love him on this showdown slate versus a defense that has surrendered the 5th-most DKPTS to opposing RBs.
Cameron Brate ($4,600 Flex)
Whilst I don’t quite love him as much as I did last week due to his inflated price on this showdown slate, Brate is certainly still in play on Sunday. Similar to Scotty Miller, both these receivers should benefit in Brown’s absence. Having proven to be reliable catchers throughout the regular season and in the postseason so far. Brate saw 5 targets last week, catching 4 for 50 yards, and should see similar work on Sunday. He ran 16 routes last week compared to Gronkowski’s 19. Whilst Green Bay has been solid versus opposition TEs, his target volume is hard to ignore, even if he has been priced up slightly.
Mason Crosby and Ryan Succop ($3,800 and $3,600 Flex)
Both kickers are definitely in play with such a high O/U. Both kickers have been solid this year, but with Green Bay boasting the league’s 8th-best red zone defense, Tampa Bay could struggle to move the ball from 20-yards. Resulting in plenty of FG opportunities for Succop. Being the lower-priced of the two, and the underdog, Succop should draw less ownership. However, either kicker can definitely be considered on Sunday.
Jamaal Williams ($2,200 Flex)
Whilst Aaron Jones obviously continues to lead this Green Bay backfield, Williams and AJ Dillion continue to split snaps with the RB1. Last week Williams ended up seeing the field on 37% of snaps. Tampa Bay’s run defence is elite, although they have been susceptible to catching backs. They have given up the most receptions to opposing RBs in the league this year. Whilst we haven’t seen it so much in recent weeks, Williams was a reliable option in the passing game earlier in the season, seeing 31 targets through the first 11 weeks of the year. He’s cheap, so really doesn’t need a big game to hit value, but has a nice ceiling.
Tyler Johnson ($800 Flex)
Whilst I expect Miller to benefit more from Brown’s absence, at just $800 you can’t go wrong with Tyler Johnson. Bruce Arians told reporters this week that Johnson has earned the trust of staff and Brady with his limited opportunities he’s had this season, so could play a solid role on Sunday. Whilst he only played 15 snaps last weekend, he made an impressive 15-yard catch, and even provides a threat in the red zone; with 4 of his 17 targets on the year coming inside the 20. He only needs a couple of catches for a handful of yards to hit value, and whilst I prefer Miller, Johnson will definitely be on my radar on Sunday.
So, there are our DraftKings selections for the 2020 Showdown of Tampa Bay @Green Bay! Remember any DFS questions, you can check out our articles here. Or you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Benny Sieu – USA TODAY Sports